by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
RACE 2: DYNAMAX PRIME (#8)
If this field holds together, there is likely to be a fast pace, as indicated by the Pace Projector. However, Wicked Macho is cross- entered in a stakes race on Saturday, and his defection would take some of the speed out of this affair. In any event, the pace figures to be honest, which could present challenges to those stretching out in distance, including likely favorite Build to Suit. I'm hoping this race comes apart a bit in the late stages because I like Dynamax Prime. I know he's run a bit slower than some of his competitors, but he's kept good company and appears to be improving. This one-turn mile is the perfect distance for him.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 4,6,7,9
RACE 3: COASTED (#1)
Dream Dancing is probably the horse to beat off two solid efforts in Kentucky, but she's a deep closer who is not going to get any pace to close into in this race. Fifty Five is somewhat interesting after getting somewhat compromised by a wide trip at Aqueduct last time while facing a field that looks tougher in retrospect. However, she, too, could be compromised by a slow pace. New Money Honey figures to show some speed from the outside post position, but I'm hoping that Jose Lezcano holds his ground with Coasted. Her inside post position gives her an advantage at this distance, and she was successful when using more tactical speed during her 2-year- old campaign. I think the key to this filly is getting her onto a very firm turf course, and that figures to be the case Thursday.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,7
RACE 6: ST. LOUIE (#14)
This is one of the most perplexing races on the card, as runners are coming into this race from a multitude of different directions and class levels. The horse to beat is probably Richmond Street in his second start off the layoff, but I prefer the runner who finished just behind him last time. St. Louis is going to be a much better price than the favorite, and I think you could make a case that he actually ran a better race back on May 11. He was three wide for much of his journey and was moving best of all late in a race where no one made up any ground into extremely slow fractions (indicated by blue color-coding in PPs). Mike Maker has great numbers in races at 1 1/4 miles and beyond on turf at NYRA tracks over the past five years (11 for 43, 26 percent, $3.02 ROI).
Win/Place: 14
Exacta Key Box: 14 with 3,7,10
RACE 7: SO NOTED (#4)
If this field holds together, the early pace figures to be very hot. The Pace Projector is predicting that Rectify and Mineralogy will be in front early, but plenty of other speed types will be right on their heels in this loaded 13-horse field. The horse to beat is recent debut winner Patternrecognition, but he is taking a huge step up the class ladder and could be an underlay. I want a closer, and the one I think will offer the best value is So Noted. This New York-bred had really improved last summer before heading to the sidelines. There's always some concern about how these runners will return from layoffs, but Charlton Baker is one of the best in the business in these situations. Over the past five years, he is 21 for 81 (26 percent) with a $2.20 ROI off layoffs of 180 days or longer in dirt sprints.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,8,11
RACE 8: MISSISSIPPI DELTA (#5)
The likely favorite, Take These Chains, gets a class test here. She was visually impressive when winning her return race in April at this distance, easily inhaling some overmatched foes before being geared down in deep stretch. She is a major threat to step right up and win this race, but she's going to be an awfully short price, and there are some other runners with talent in this group. I'm taking a shot against her with Mississippi Delta. This mare does her best running around one turn, and this seven-furlong distance is perfect for her. Don't be fooled by her poor showing in this race last year since she had a nightmare of a trip and was blocked in traffic for nearly the entire stretch drive. Furthermore, her recent performances against tougher company suggest that she may be an improved horse as a 5-year-old.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,8,9
Trifecta: 5,9 with 5,9 with 1,2,4,8,10