by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: HELLO HOLIDAY (#7)
Data Room is probably going to win this race, but these Chad Brown runners typically get overbet. Furthermore, he's obviously had some issues. This horse was a vet scratch on two occasions between his race two back at Belmont and his most recent start at Gulfstream, and he hasn’t run for three months. He's clearly run the fastest races, but I'm not going to be surprised if he takes a step in the wrong direction here. I'm trying to beat him with Hello Holiday. This horse didn't show much on dirt in his only start, but the second- and third-place finishers both came back to run well. The reason I like him here is that he sports a very strong turf pedigree. Harlan's Holiday is a strong turf sire, and this runner's dam is a half-sister to a turf stakes winner as well as to a few other runners that excelled on that surface. Though not known for winning on turf that often, Mike Hushion does get a 100 Trainer Rating with his second-time starters overall.

Win: 7
Exacta Box: 1,7
 
 

RACE 4: PLANET TRAILBLAZER (#10)
If King of Spades runs back to his most recent effort, which came over this turf course, he will be very tough to beat. He was in great form down at the Fair Grounds and he brought those races here when he overpowered a decent group of runners earlier this month. However, this horse had been in the barns of Brad Cox and Steve Asmussen, who are very effective with claimers like this. Now he's going out for Bruce Brown, who does a fine job, but has not had the same level of success as the two aforementioned conditioners. I have to use him, but I want to be open to some other possibilities. One horse that I think could step forward at a decent price is Planet Trailblazer. This horse ran some decent races over the inner track during the winter, and actually ran deceptively well in his turf debut last time. He saved ground down inside, but never was able to find a clear path in the stretch. Kendrick Carmouche never stopped riding altogether, but he also couldn't really pick up momentum in a race that was dominated by the front-runners. We saw third-place finisher St. Louie, who was also compromised by the slow pace, come back to run an improved race against tougher company next time out. Now Planet Trailblazer is drawn outside and he figures to be placed a bit closer to the pace.

Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 4,5,7
 
 

RACE 5: BROWSE (#6)
This was one of those process-of-elimination races. Going through this race runner by runner, there are just too many horses that I don't want to bet at short prices. Picco Uno had been in great form, but her last race could be a sign she's heading in the wrong direction; Silvertoni is hard to trust off the layoff; and it's a little weird that Todd Pletcher has named Joe Bravo to ride Burn Control, who is an odd claim for this barn. The only horse that I don't have any issues with is Browse. This filly ran pretty well in her return last time, and may actually like this turn-back in distance. You could make a case that two of the best races she's ever run were her first two starts at sprint distances, and now Shug McGaughey is letting her go back to what she appears to do best. She's drawn perfectly outside of the other speed, and should sit a good stalking trip.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5
 
 

RACE 8: HEY JABBER JAW (#3)
Three Five India is clearly the horse to beat, but his 2-5 morning-line odds seem a bit short to me given the competition in this field. Don't get me wrong – if this horse runs back to his best effort, or even improves off this 3-year-old form, he is going to beat this field. However, I do want to give a long, hard look to the runner I believe to be his chief rival, Hey Jabber Jaw. This horse surprised me in race after race throughout the winter, stepping up his game with each successive start. However, it's his last race that really gives me the feeling that he could be dangerous here as an upset possibility. He dueled with Bond Vigilante early through fast fractions, easily put that foe away, and then held sway late while turning back challenges from the closers. The runner-up, Gypsum Johnny, returned to win, and Bond Vigilante, who faded to last in that race, came back to just miss in a photo last week. Hey Jabber Jaw earned a strong 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort, and a repeat of that number would make him a legitimate threat to the favorite here. Furthermore, while there is some other speed in this race, none is as fast as him, and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that will favor horses on or near the lead.

Win/Place: 3
Trifecta: 3,4 with 3,4 with ALL
Trifecta: 3,4 with ALL with 3,4