by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 2: ST. LOUIE (#6)
Snag was installed as the clear morning-line favorite based largely on the perceived strength of his recent performance in the Grade 2 Pan American at Gulfstream. While he was beaten only four lengths that day, turf races tend to bring fields together at the finish line, so I'm not sure that he was actually as competitive against a top turf runner like winner Sadler's Joy as some may think. His prior efforts make him just another contender in this race and nothing more. Since I expect him to be an underlay and I don't fully trust Alasaal to get the distance, I'm taking a shot with St. Louie. I know that he looks a little cheap for this field, but I think he's in better form than it appears. He was completely stymied in traffic for the entire stretch drive two back, a race he very well may have won. Then, last time, he simply got the wrong ride, as he was inexplicably rated far off a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in PPs). I expect Kendrick Carmouche to have him placed closer to the pace, and Mike Maker has especially strong numbers in this situation. According to DRF Formulator, over the past five years, he is 11 for 38 (29 percent) for a $3.41 ROI with horses going 10 furlongs or longer on turf at NYRA tracks.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,5,7
 
 

RACE 4: ELBOW ROOM (#6)
A number of horses can win this wide-open maiden-claiming race, but there's one in particular who figures to be an attractive price and may be overlooked. Elbow Room does not have the obvious turf pedigree that some others sport, but it is undoubtedly there. D' Funnybone is a surprisingly strong turf influence (wins with 17 percent of his turf starters), and this horse’s lone sibling to try turf actually handled it, despite not winning, with limited opportunities. This horse did not run badly two back when horribly overmatched and then was racing on a dead rail last time. He gets a positive rider switch to Luis Saez for this race.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,9,10,11,12
 
 

RACE 5: RESILIENT ONE (#4)
Game Girl is the morning-line favorite for the hot Linda Rice barn, but I don't completely trust her as she returns from a lengthy layoff for an alarmingly cheap price tag. A few of these are coming out of the fourth race on April 20, and the mare whom I want most out of that event is Resilient One. She figured to be one of the potential speeds of that race, but she was unwisely rated in the early going and ended up getting shuffled back in traffic approaching the top of the stretch. All things considered, she finished fairly well while just missing third. This filly's prior form on dirt is not a true indication of her current form, and I think she can get back to some of her better turf efforts here as long as she gets a more aggressive ride.

Win: 4
 
 

RACE 7: SILLY NUMBERS (#9)
Many of the runners who are going to take money in this spot have some serious questions to answer. For instance, if Catch Your Dreams repeats her Saratoga debut effort, she is probably going to win, but it's hard to say what we're going to get from her off such a lengthy layoff. I want to find better value, and one runner who I think could get overlooked is Silly Numbers. She ran very well at Aqueduct last November when leading much of the way before just getting run down by subsequent stakes winner Fifty Five. When she returned last month, she ran like a filly who badly needed a race. Breaking from the disadvantageous outside post position, she did not show the same early speed and ended up getting taken too far back off the pace. That's not how she wants to run, and I expect Jose Lezcano to send her forward out of the gate this time.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,5,6,10
 
 

RACE 8: VISION PERFECT (#3)
I have no knocks against Big Rock and Loose on the Town, who are the confirmed turf sprinters in this field, but I have to take a small shot against them with Vision Perfect. This horse loves Belmont Park, having finished in the exacta in five of his nine starts here despite facing tough fields on a few occasions. He's moving back into the barn of David Donk, for whom he's had most of his success, and is turning back to six furlongs. While he's never raced at a distance this short, there's some evidence to suggest that he might like it. He ran a big race going seven furlongs over this course last year, and his only half-sibling, Have Another, is a confirmed sprinter.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 6,8