by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 3: RIVER DEEP (#2)
Rarest Quality was installed as the morning-line favorite off a decent debut effort at Keeneland. He pressed an honest pace before fading in the lane, but the race may have been stronger than it appears given that he earned a 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure and three runners out of that affair came back to win their next starts. He's the horse to beat, but I think he'll face a challenge from River Deep. This Barclay Tagg trainee returned from a layoff last time and found himself in a tough maiden race that featured the very talented Army Mule. River Deep battled with Army Mule early through fast fractions (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs) before fading to fourth. Despite the margin of defeat, he still earned a respectable TimeformUS Speed Figure of 93. The runner-up, Zap Zap Zap, returned to finish second in another maiden race last week while earning a similar speed figure, so that race looks legitimate. Tagg gets a 100 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with runners dropping from maiden special weight to maiden-claiming company.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4
 
 

RACE 7: PAID ADMISSION (#7)
The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the lead, which may work against my top pick in this race. However, there are no clear front-runners in this group, so I wonder if the entire field will be bunched, mitigating some of the advantage that horses like Indycott or Marriage Fever may have. I'm hoping this creates a situation that gives Paid Admission a chance to rally from off the pace. This horse had no chance when going seven furlongs against tougher foes last time. The race held together toward the front end, and TimeformUS PPs indicate that the track was mildly speed favoring on that afternoon. Paid Admission's prior effort at this claiming level was actually better than it seems, considering that he was trying to close over a very speed-favoring surface on Wood Memorial Day.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,4,6
 
 

RACE 8: RUMBLE DOLL (#8)
Although she is being asked to overcome an odd turnback in distance, Swiss Range is nevertheless the horse to beat in this spot. While she has rarely sprinted, Bill Mott actually has done well in these situations. According to DRF Formulator, he is 12 for 46 (26 percent) with an ROI of $2.82 with turnbacks on turf at NYRA over the past five years. That said, this classy mare will have to deal with some fast competitors in this spot. I realize that my selection, Rumble Doll, is not predicted to get much pace to close into, but I still think she is the right horse to bet here. Her recent form is much stronger than it appears to be. Last time, in her first start back off the layoff, she was buried down inside at the quarter pole and was forced to steady at a critical point in the race. She again encountered traffic once into the stretch and actually did well to get up for third. Now she gets back to six furlongs, which is closer to her best distance. Robert Falcone Jr. gets a 99 Trainer Rating when pairing with Joel Rosario, who has ridden this mare successfully in the past.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,4,5,6,7
 
 

RACE 9: MY JELLY BEAN (#11)
Divine Cause probably deserves to be the favorite here despite her lengthy layoff. Her lone turf-sprint effort last summer at Saratoga was solid, and now she gets back to what she apparently does best. However, there are other interesting runners in this race without proven turf form who figure to offer better value. Of the first-time turfers, the one who intrigues me most is My Jelly Bean. This filly hasn't done much running on dirt, but she figures to really appreciate this surface switch. She is a half-sister to two turf winners by mediocre turf sires Desert Warrior and Wheelaway. Given that she is sired by the solid turf sire Freud, one would assume that she has a right to be even better-suited to grass racing than her siblings.

Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 3,9