by David Aragona
>>Visit TimeformUS for Thursday's Highlight Horse and PPs

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight at 8 furlongs on turf

There is plenty of guesswork to be done here, as the field is short on horses with turf experience and is instead dominated by runners making a surface switch as well as first-time starters. I'm most interested in one of the runners making a turf debut, COURTLY KITTY (#2). I've been waiting for this filly to get on grass for a couple of starts now, but, unfortunately, she was twice entered in races that were rained off the turf at Saratoga. Those ordinary dirt efforts may drive up her price in this spot, which is fine by me because she actually has plenty of turf pedigree. She is by turf influence Court Vision and out of a dam that has produced turf winner Face the Race, as well as Brimstone, who has handled turf without winning over it. David Donk is a pretty good judge of which horses should make a surface switch, and I'm confident that we'll see her best effort yet.

Others that I would want to use with her include Super Mama (#1), who has plenty of turf pedigree as she tries grass for Chad Brown, Lover’s Key (#10), a half-sister to turf winner No Texting, and Mo Promise (#13), who would be a major factor if she were to draw in off the also-eligible list.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,10,13

Race 6: Maiden Claiming at 6 furlongs on turf

I was somewhat interested in PECULIAR SENSATION (#12) when he first got on turf last time, primarily due to the fact that D'Funnybone has been a moderately successful turf sire with a limited number of runners. Unfortunately, I don't think we got a definitive answer about his turf ability last time given the strange nature of the race. A loose horse caused chaos down the backstretch, and he bumped another runner heading into the far turn, which caused more problems. Jose Ortiz seemed to have trouble maneuvering him into the stretch, and he was forced to steady when a hole towards the rail closed off before he could get through. All in all, I think he deserves a second chance. I'm encouraged that Jose Ortiz stays put, and now the Pace Projector is predicting that he's fast enough to be on the lead.

Win/Place: 12

Race 8: Allowance at 8.5 furlongs on turf

Chad Brown's Penjade (#8) was installed as the morning line favorite. While she is certainly a contender, I don't see her as having any particular edge over this field. She's gotten relatively good setups and has worked out decent trips in her two U.S. starts, so I wouldn't want to take a short price on her. Instead, the horse that interests me most is MODULE (#2). Bill Mott gets a decent 77 trainer rating off layoffs of this type, so I'm not that concerned about the time off. While she's never won on turf, she's certainly run her best races over that surface. This filly ran well in both of her tries against stakes company over the winter in Florida. Two back, she made a four-wide move on the far turn before racing greenly once she hit the front. Then last time, she was difficult to ride while trying to pick her way through traffic. It's likely that she's gained some professionalism with age, and I believe she'll be hard to beat here if she puts it all together.

In exactas with my top selection, I would also throw in Danilovna (#1), whose trainer, Graham Motion, has excellent numbers with horses making their first starts in this country, Vagabond (#3), a visually impressive winner at Laurel last time, and Llanita (#6), who always showed ability and finally broke out of the maiden ranks last time out.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6,8

Race 9: Allowance at 8 furlongs

He's not going to be that great of a price as one of only two primary contenders in this spot, but I like BORN FOR A STORM (#5). I'm becoming a fan of this horse and am fairly confident that we haven't seen the best of him yet. He's only sprinted thus far in his short career, but his pedigree suggests that he should love the added ground that he gets to work with today, since he is a half-brother to routers Dreaming of Cara and Born in Brooklyn. The 110 speed figure that he earned last time out is the highest in the field, and runner-up James Lane came back to validate the number. I strongly prefer him to his main rival Diversify (#7), who is the slight favorite on the morning line. Rick Violette is one of the best in the business with first-time starters, but he gets just a 45 trainer rating with horses making their second career starts.

If Diversify fails to show up in his second start, there are some interesting horses at larger price that could round out the trifecta. Those include the reliable Here Comes Tommy (#1), Ro Bear (#2), who was hampered by an awkward start last time in a slow-paced race, Manipulated (#3), who has a right to take a step forward in his second start back from the layoff, and Nobody Move(#4).

Win: 5
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,3,4,7 with 1,2,3,4,7

Race 10: Maiden Special Weight at 8 furlongs on turf

Like today's fourth race, there is not a lot of concrete form on which to base your opinions. I'm taking a shot with CESPEDES (#5), who comes out of a decent race, from which the winner returned to win a stakes. He was wide and a little green, and Javier Castellano never really asked him for his best while riding as if he knew the horse needed a start. While Justenuffhumor is only a fair turf influence, this horse's dam has produced four turf winners, so he figures to take a major step forward with the surface switch.

I’ll use Cespedes with Twisted Tom (#1), a half-brother to multiple turf winner Aesthetique, Benny Big Boy (#4), who had serious trouble at the start of his debut and now must stretch out, first-time starters Silky Way (#9) and Set Me Up (#11), as well as Preferred Outcome (#13), if he were to draw in.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,9,11,13