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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 4: Allowance at 8.5 furlongs

While I acknowledge that Doyouknowsomething (#4) and Unbridled Juan (#6) will be awfully tough to beat, I am interested in a long shot that could sneak his way into the exacta or trifecta. FACE OF WINNER (#2) has clearly had some issues during his career, but he's shown ability when Gustavo Delgado has gotten him healthy. This was the case when he won at Saratoga in 2015, fending off today's likely favorite, Unbridled Juan, as well as future stakes winner Financial Modeling. When he resurfaced earlier this year, an inexperienced apprentice jockey may have cost him in his return on April 3, as he was steadied entering the far turn and ridden into traffic in the stretch. Yet he came back just six days later to win in a tougher spot while earning the highest speed figure of his career. I like the confident placement coming off the layoff, and I think this horse may get lost in the wagering.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,6
Trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6 with 2

Race 5: Maiden Claiming $50,000 at 6 furlongs

Of those that have run, I'm most interested in ECLIPTICAL JACK (#6). This horse showed some signs of life in his debut, but ran like a horse that needed the race. After breaking about a length slowly, he steadily advanced through the pack down the backstretch, reaching contention around the far turn. He moved up into a menacing position approaching the top of the stretch while racing wide, but got to lugging in late and tired in the final eighth of a mile. He should have gotten plenty out of that effort, and I think we'll see a better showing today. Charlton Baker's horses have certainly been on quite a roll lately.

Win/Place: 6

Race 7: Claiming $25,000 at 6 furlongs

There's no disputing that Jemmabelle (#3) has run the fastest races, but she rarely wins, and I find her especially difficult to take at a short price in a race that features very little early speed. For that reason, I've landed on PIAF (#7). It's fairly apparent that she is the lone frontrunner in this race, and, indeed, the Pace Projector clearly illustrates that she will be in control of this race early. I know Eric Cancel has not been the most aggressive rider on this circuit, but he absolutely must send this filly out to a clear lead to have any chance of exploiting her advantage. Piaf's last race is actually better than it seems, since she had to be hustled to the front to make the lead through fast fractions and didn't fade until the final eighth in a race dominated by closers. She stacks up well from a class perspective, and Ralph Nicks does very well on this circuit (92 trainer rating).

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,5,6
Trifecta: 7 with 3,5,6 with 3,5,6

Race 8: Allowance at 7 furlongs on turf

This is probably the most interesting race on the card, and not the kind of race where I would settle for short prices—horses like Manipulated, who has dubious turf pedigree, and Fearthefalcon, who is coming off a perfect trip against a softer field. The one that I want to take a shot with is LUCKY TOWN (#7). This gelding broke his maiden at this seven furlong distance, so you know he’ll get the trip. He ran three times at Saratoga, and I don’t think he had an opportunity to show his best form in any of those races. Five and a half furlongs may be too short for him, and in his pair of two-turn races, he set very fast paces, which made it impossible for him to get the distance. This was especially true last time when his rider sent him up to force a pace that was already quick, ultimately causing the race to collapse late. We saw the pacesetter, The J Y, come back out of that race to win, so I expect Lucky Town to give a better account of himself here. This rider is usually aggressive and should take advantage of a situation that is predicted to favor horses on or near the lead.

Among the more interesting alternatives to the favorites are Lotta Gold (#1), who may appreciate this turnback after getting a terrible trip two back at Saratoga; Go Go Lucky (#3), who makes his first start for the hot Danny Gargan barn; Worbothor (#4), who has come to life in recent starts and may not mind getting back to turf; Fear (#10), who figures to be a bigger price than Fearthefalcon despite running just as well last time; and I Win (#11), an intriguing long shot that makes some sense if you throw out his non-effort last time.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,4,10,11

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight at 8.5 furlongs on turf

Though I picked someone else in this race, I won't pretend that Courtly Kitty (#6) and Lover’s Key (#1A) are not very much the horses to beat. Based on prior turf form, they absolutely tower over this field. Yet it must be said that neither one of them is very good—they just appear to have landed in an especially weak race for this level. The only runners that may prove dangerous are first-time starters and those making their turf debuts. I'm most interested in a horse in the latter group.

On the surface of things, NORTHSHIRE (#9) doesn't have much turf pedigree. Her dam and granddam are both quite young, so their production records don't say very much at all. However, there actually are some strong turf influences if you dig through her female family going back generations, and Catienus is a decent grass sire. This filly gives the visual impression that she may be more turf-inclined, and I think she's worth a shot—at what should be a huge price.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,6
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with 9