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Race 1: Claiming $25,000 at 6 furlongs on turf
This race is somewhat unusual in that it's very light on proven turf sprinters. A few horses are making surface switches while others are turning back in distance, so almost the entire field has some serious questions to answer. Fortunately, that's not the case for BARRIER TO ENTRY (#4), who is a deserving favorite in this spot. This filly showed improvement for Linda Rice two back when she won a first-level allowance race at today's distance. Her last race might look disappointing, but I think you have to be forgiving given her trip. After getting off to a tangled start, she was left at the back of the pack, which is not her preferred running style. Furthermore, the pace was extremely slow (color-coded in blue), and she raced wide on the far turn, which took away any chance she might have had. Today, she lands in a much easier spot, and the Pace Projector is predicting that she'll be on the lead in a situation favoring the frontrunner.
Win: 4
Trifecta: 4 with 1,3,5,7,9 with 1,3,5,7,9
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $40,000 at 7 furlongs on turf
Horses like Tiz Paradise (#2) and Well Blessed (#10) figure to take the most money here. While I recognize that both are capable of winning this race, neither one really excites me, and I'm inclined to look elsewhere in a race that appears to include some live long shots. I'll highlight two:
LA BOOT ON (#9) is likely to be dismissed in the wagering, but she actually ran deceptively well in her turf debut behind Bright Side Up, who is a contender for top honors here. Whereas Bright Side Up was stalking the slow pace (color-coded in blue) along the rail, La Boot On was off slowly and rated at the back of the pack. The early leader wired the field, and La Boot On was the only horse that was doing any passing in the lane as she finished up strongly. With more pace today, I think she might be able to make a late impact if her low-percentage rider can work out any kind of trip for her.
I also want to use LIDDYUP (#6), who probably has not put forth her best performance yet. She was overmatched against maiden special weight company in her debut and just couldn't quite get a mile last time. Now she finds herself in a much easier spot, and I think she's good enough to have a say in the outcome and potentially even win if she moves forward. She certainly has the pedigree to be a decent turf horse.
Win/Place: 6,9
Exacta Key Box: 6,9 with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10
Race 6: Claiming $25,000 at 8 furlongs on turf
Detail (#4) will be everyone's trip horse after she obviously should have won her last race. Irad Ortiz made a poor decision to move inside behind a tiring frontrunner approaching the stretch, and he cost his mount the victory. However, she was facing only three rivals last time, and today's race is undoubtedly a tougher spot. She can win, but I prefer another at a bigger price.
ONE PENNY PIECE (#10) has been subtly improving over recent starts for Phil Serpe. Two back at Saratoga she was one of the only runners to make a late impact into a race that was wired on the front end through slow fractions, and last time she again did well to close into an extremely slow pace (color-coded in blue) for the seven furlong distance. One mile is a better distance for her, and I think the presence of Debbie's Tude (#2), who has a tendency to run off early and set fast paces (note all the red running lines in her PPs), should ensure that early fractions are at least honest.
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,4,6
Race 9: Maiden Claiming $40,000 at 6.5 furlongs
I was hesitant to actually pick this horse as a Top Play, since I'm not sure that he's actually a good bet. However, I do believe that it's at least worth mentioning long shot SPOTTY ZEALOUS (#1). His published running line makes it look as if he dropped the rider at the start of his last race and didn't compete. However, a viewing of that race shows that he actually put in a shockingly professional performance for a first-time starter, rushing up to contest the pace while battling with the eventual runner-up before tiring a bit late. I don't want to give a horse too much credit for completing a race without a rider on his back, but it's apparent that this youngster at least has a pretty good idea of what he's supposed to go out there and accomplish. He's put in some decent workouts, and his pedigree indicates that he could have some ability. If he's a huge price, he's at least worthy of consideration.
Win/Place: 1