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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $62,500 at 6 furlongs on turf
TWO HOT BETTY (#8) is a very likely winner of this race, and I don't expect to get anywhere near the 10/1 morning line. Frankly, she wouldn't be a bad bet at around 7/2 in this spot if she can run back to her debut. That day, she was off a bit slowly and squeezed back at the start. From there, she was allowed to drop well off a pace that was on the slow side (color-coded in blue). However, once she straightened away in the stretch, she really got rolling and was coming fastest of all despite racing a little greenly as she had to move through traffic. All things considered, she did well to get as close as she did to the leader by the time they crossed the wire. She should appreciate the slight drop in class and will be tough to beat if she can get out of the gate today.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 9,10
Trifecta: 8 with 9,10 with 2,5,6,7,9,10
Trifecta: 8 with 2,5,6,7 with 9,10
Race 5: Allowance at 6 furlongs on turf
The Pace Projector is not predicting a pace meltdown, but it does indicate that there is some speed in this race given that frontrunners True Charm and Congarette are both entered. It seems unlikely that the pace will be slow, which was the situation that my top selection, SISTER SOPHIA (#7), encountered last time. That day, a lack of early aggression helped the first two finishers, First Charmer and Uncle Southern, and hindered all of the closers. Sister Sophia was especially affected, since she was placed farthest off the pace early and had the most ground to make up in the stretch. She's better than that and would be a major player in this spot if she can get back to some of her efforts from last year. Trainer Richard Metivier flies under the radar but does well with limited starters.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,5,8
Race 6: Allowance at 8 furlongs
On the subject of horses that have been hindered by slow paces, there is perhaps no greater example on today's card than TAOISEACH (#8). The paces of this horse's last four starts have all been color-coded blue, and have been especially detrimental to the chances of this deep closer. He actually didn't run that badly in the New York Derby or in his third-place finish behind the talented Governor Malibu last time. I like that he's turning back slightly to a one-turn mile, since I believe distances between 7 and 8 furlongs are best for him. Horses like Jet Black and Brimstone should provide a more honest pace up front, and I think Taoiseach is fast enough to run them down late at what should be a fair price.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,5,7
Race 8: Allowance at 6 furlongs
You can make a pretty solid case for a number of runners in this race, and it's especially difficult to determine which horses are going to offer value. I hardly expect CLASSY CLASS (#4) to go off at anything close to his 20/1 morning line price, but I still think that he could be an interesting wagering proposition at less than half of that price. I've always been waiting for this horse's connections to focus on sprint races with him, since that's where he's been most successful. Aside from his King's Bishop, in which he got a terrible trip that cost him any chance of being competitive, he really hasn't run badly in any of his one-turn races. Kiaran McLaughlin does well enough with horses coming off extended layoffs, and Classy Class really doesn't need to improve much on his best three-year-old form to be a major factor in here.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,6,7
Race 9: Allowance at 7 furlongs on turf
Absolutely nothing went right for KNEE SOCKS (#12) last time. She got away to a tangled start and her rider actually lost the irons a few strides out of the gate. It took him about a sixteenth of a mile to get back into the stirrups, and by that time, Knee Socks was totally out of position at the back of the pack. This is a filly that has run some of her best races when she's been placed close to the pace, so her path to victory was all but eliminated. Making matters worse was the fact that the pace was on the moderate side and she proceeded to race wide every step of the way. This filly is better than that, as she displayed two back when she may have run the best race against a decent group of New York-bred allowance horses. The turnback is a question, but she has run well sprinting on dirt, so she might be able to handle this seven furlong distance as she gets a positive rider switch to Joel Rosario.
Win/Place: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 1,3,6,7,10