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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 3: Maiden Special Weight at 10 furlongs on turf

Tisbury (#6) is clearly the horse to beat, but isn't she the kind of horse that you wanted to have last time at nearly 30/1? Today, she's going to be a fraction of that price. While she may be the most likely winner, this is a fairly competitive field, and I see at least one alternative that could be a fair enough price.

GIOVANNA BLUES (#3) put in a strong effort in her debut over this very course. While the margin of defeat may have been greater had the talented winner, On Leave, been ridden out to the finish, there's no denying that Giovanna Blues served notice that she possesses some ability. I don't know what went wrong at Saratoga, but she didn't run a step in her race up there. However, last time at Parx, she ran a stronger race than it might appear. She was very wide and out of position the entire way in a race that was complicated by a loose horse racing among the field. Despite the slow pace and losing a ton of ground off the far turn, she still closed well for third. I think this distance will suit her, and I'm hoping John Velazquez can work out a trip.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Box: 3,6
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2

Race 4: Claiming $40,000 at 8 furlongs on turf

I realize that she's hardly the most likely winner of this race, but ZEVEN (#3) is the kind of horse that I just have to bet. Her form is likely to fool most horseplayers, who will see that she is primarily a dirt horse and cite David Jacobson's mediocre turf numbers as reason to dismiss her making this surface switch. However, it's worth taking a close look at her only two turf races. Not only was she facing tougher competition in those races at the Fair Grounds, but she actually finished right with today's rival Zubi Zubi Zu on both occasions. Furthermore, you could argue that Zeven had the tougher trip in those races as each time she was buried down inside with little running room in the stretch. Her recent form is fine, and this one-turn mile may suit her better than those two-turn turf races she had previously contested. The Pace Projector is predicting that she'll be on the lead in a situation favoring the frontrunner, so I'm hoping that Angel Arroyo allows her to use her natural speed.

Win/Place: 3

Race 7: Allowance at 7 furlongs on turf

I suppose that Uncle Southern (#8) and Barrel of Dreams (#9) are the two runners to beat in this race, but I don't want to bet either one at relatively short prices. Uncle Southern has been in great form since returning to the turf this summer, but she really had no excuse to lose last time after getting a great trip, and she may be a shorter price today. Barrel of Dreams came alive going two turns at Saratoga this summer. Her trainer has been on quite the run, but I think she finds herself in a more competitive spot today.

I decided to take a shot against them with ELOWEASEL (#1). I admit I have a bit of a thing for this filly, but I do believe that seven furlongs is her best distance. Last time, she appeared to be lugging in down the stretch, so perhaps she'll benefit from drawing the inside post position today. Her form isn't quite as exposed as some of the others.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,8,9

Race 8: Allowance at 10 furlongs on turf

Sure, Roman Approval (#8) has run the fastest speed figures and has kept the best company. However, he just wins so rarely that it's awfully hard to have confidence in him finding his way to the winner's circle, especially at what figures to be a very short price.

Luckily, I see an intriguing alternative in MUNJAZ (#1). This horse has shown flashes of real ability at times in this country, but he's also been compromised by trips. That was never truer than last time, when Joe Bravo was unable to tuck in heading towards the clubhouse turn at Saratoga and ended up getting spun wide all the way around that bend. He then rushed up to contest the pace down the backstretch and unsurprisingly tired in the lane. This horse actually won at today's 10 furlong distance in Europe, so one would think that the stretch-out in distance may actually suit him. It's a good sign that he's now putting races back to back for Kiaran McLaughlin, and I think he can pull off the upset here.

Win: 1
Exacta Box: 1,8
Trifecta: 1,8 with 1,8 with 3,4,6
Trifecta: 1,8 with 3,4,6 with 1,8