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Race 6: Claiming $25,000 at 8 furlongs on turf

The horse to beat is Marnesia Big Girl (#10), who has simply run the best races and done so against tougher competition. Some might say that she was disappointing at a relatively short price last time, but that was an oddly-run race. You could hear people muttering, "they knew..." after the conclusion of that event as it was won by a seemingly overbet contender that was hard to like based on prior form. Nevertheless, Marnesia Big Girl ran well within the context of the race, just as she had the time before, when she was closing fastest of all in a race that was dominated by horses racing towards the front. This time, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which should help set up her late run. However, I think there's another horse that could benefit from some hitting up front at a much bigger price. 

FOREVER PLUS (#1) has made only three turf starts, and she really hasn't performed that badly in any of them. After winning her grass debut, she was in against a tougher field on May 29, and then just got the wrong ride on June 23 when Joel Rosario was too aggressive early and ended up getting shuffled back on the turn. She's not fast enough to contest the pace, so Manny Franco should let the speed go this time and make one late run. The drop in class figures to agree with her, and she's one of the few runners in this race that may actually still have room for improvement. 

While I’ll focus on the two aforementioned fillies, I will also use a few backups in exotic wagers, including Madison Blues (#3), who faced some tough maiden fields, Sauvignon (#6), who may like getting back to one turn, and Undertherain (#8), just in case the pace doesn’t materialize as expected. 

Win/Place: 1

Exacta Box: 1,10

Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,6,8

Race 7: Allowance at 9 furlongs on turf 

I've never been this horse's biggest fan, but I just think FULMER (#9) has landed in the right spot today. He was never beating the classy Call Provision last time, but it certainly didn't help matters that he raced four-wide around both turns. All things considered, he actually stayed on well through the stretch to be fourth. In my opinion, she ran a much stronger race than today's rival Ordinaire, who figures to go off at a short price here. Distance doesn't seem to bother him, so I like that they're keeping him at two turns and trying this mile and an eighth distance. The Christophe Clement barn has been due for some luck since Saratoga, and they look to be in good shape to pick up a winner here.

 Win: 9 

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming at 7 furlongs on turf

 This is a very confusing race, which is further complicated by the overall lack of pace. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors horses on or near the lead, but identifying those potential pace players is no easy task. One horse that I believe may be more forwardly placed today is INSTA ERMA (#12). This three-year-old filly is facing a field that is primarily composed of her elders, but I think she could be ready for the rise in class off the layoff. Bill Mott does fine with runners returning from breaks of this type (84 trainer rating), and Insta Erma has at least one race back at Gulfstream that suggests she can be competitive at this level. Her win on April 10 was a strong effort. Not only was she visually impressive striding out to the line, but she was pulling away from a decent, stakes-placed filly, Rontos Lily. The cutback to seven furlongs is a question mark, but Bill Mott has decent numbers with turf sprinters, and this filly gives the impression that she possesses the quickness to be successful at this elongated sprint distance.

 I would use her with Lady Kreesa (#2), who will appreciate getting back to Belmont Park, Connie Nistel (#5), a wild card Chilean import that has done her best work sprinting on turf, Welcoming (#7), who may be the class of the field as she drops out of stakes company, and mid-Atlantic shipper Koala Queen (#8).

 Win/Place: 12

Exacta Key Box: 12 with 2,5,7,8

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight at 6 furlongs on turf

 Wake Up Smiling (#6) is a deserving favorite in this spot, since she's generally run the fastest races and has proven that she's at her best sprinting on turf. However, she's also been relatively short prices before and has had her chances. My alternative is AMBER DANCER (#2), who is making her turf debut. Her connections intended to get her on this surface first time out, but the race was rained off the turf. The track was fairly speed-favoring on that day, so she basically lost all chance when she was squeezed between horses and checked at the start. She is supposed to appreciate this surface switch as a daughter of Freud that is also a half-sister to two turf winners. The only other horse that has to be thrown in is first-time starter Sabrina’s Angel (#3), a daughter of Scat Daddy that is a half-sister to one turf winner.

 Win: 2

Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,6