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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 2: Claiming $25,000 at 8.5 furlongs on turf

The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors likely frontrunner Indian Starlight (#5), but I don’t fully trust her as she takes a drop in class while coming off a four-month layoff. Instead, I’m going to give REVERSIONTOTHEMEAN (#2) a chance to come back on short rest and redeem herself at this level. Last time, the race flow just didn’t set up for her. She’s not really a sprinter, and the race just got away from her despite the fact that the fractions were slow (color-coded in blue). She was moving best of all late that day and now finds herself in a similar spot. They’re putting blinkers back on and reuniting her with Gabriel Saez, who has orchestrated her best efforts during the past year.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5

Race 3: Maiden Claiming $40,000 at 6 furlongs

There’s a lot of guessing to be done in this race, but I do want to highlight one runner that may get somewhat ignored in the wagering. SALTY SLEW (#8) acted up badly in the gate prior to his debut, actually rearing up and catching one of his hooves on the top of the starting doors. They let him run anyway, but he was clearly lacking a bit in the stamina department. He also never changed leads throughout the stretch, common with inexperienced two-year-olds. Today he’s getting Lasix for the first time and facing a significantly softer group of rivals. I wouldn’t be surprised if a different horse shows up today.

Win/Place: 8

Race 6: Maiden Claiming $40,000 at 8 furlongs on turf

I’m not enamored with any of the runners that are likely to attract a significant amount of tote board support in this race. Just Been Jammin (#5) has run races that would beat this field but is plagued by inconsistency, Mr. Neetie (#7) has given no indication that he wants to go this far, and Otto (#10) has been green in his races and comes off a disappointing effort at this level. For that reason, I’m going with an alternative and that’s BILLSPERFECTSTORM (#4). I know that his speed figures are on the slow side, but he actually ran fine in his second start, one of the few times that his rider was able to place him towards the front of the pack early. In his first start off the lengthy layoff last time, he just never got into a race that was dominated on the front end by a horse that set an extremely slow pace. I love the rider switch to Jose Ortiz, and Gary Gullo gets an 87 trainer rating with horses making their second starts out of his barn after a trainer switch.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 5,7,9,10

Race 8: Allowance at 6.5 furlongs

I don’t usually bother to highlight heavy favorites, but CONIAH (#4) might actually be worth a bet in this race if she goes off at her morning line odds of 3/5. That’s how likely she is to win this race. Sure, her main rival, Big World, was once a promising two-year-old, but there’s no guarantee that she’ll be ready to run a speed figure that’s 15 points faster than her previous best off this long layoff. Coniah earned speed figures of 113 and 117 in her two previous starts, which suggest she’s good enough to win graded stakes against her own age group. Unlike in her last two starts, which both featured strong paces, today she is predicted to be the controlling speed in a situation favoring the frontrunner. I don’t think they can beat her.

Double: 4-8

Race 9: Maiden Claiming $62,500 at 8.5 furlongs on turf

While a couple of other runners in this race have earned minor awards finishing second and third in out-of-town turf races, I want the horse dropping out of tougher Saratoga maiden heats. PIAZZA DEL CAMPO (#8) did not do that much running in either of his starts up at the Spa, but he was also facing some talented and well-meant juveniles in those races. Furthermore, he sustained somewhat wide trips on both occasions. This was especially significant last time out, when the rails were down and the first three horses across the finish line rode the hedge of the entire race. Today, Bill Mott gives him a makeover. He gets blinkers (a 79-rated trainer move), adds Lasix (a 77-rated move), and drops in for a tag for the first time (a 100-rated move).

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,5,10