by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: FACTORIAL (#3)
White Flag is the horse to beat in the opener. He finished well to be third in his two turf starts, both against some stiff competition. However, those races came at route distances, and now he's attempting to cut back to six furlongs. These kinds of turf turn-backs don't often work out, so I'm a bit skeptical of him as the favorite. Factorial could also be considered a turf turn-back of sorts (7 1/2 furlongs at Gulfstream is more of a route than a sprint), but Bill Mott is one of the few trainers that actually has strong numbers with that move. He faced a tough group of maidens down at Gulfstream last time, when he was quick out of the gate and set a fast opening quarter-mile. I get the sense that he's more of a sprinting type.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,6,7
 
 

RACE 4: SHADOW SURPRISE (#4)
TimeformUS Speed Figures reveal that Shadow Surprise is a standout in this race. His debut figure of 89 is the highest number recorded by any member of this field by a significant margin. While the raw time of his last race was not particularly fast, Shadow Surprise set a hot and contested early pace (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs). His early pace rating of 128 suggests that he should have a clear advantage over his rivals early in this event. If he can set a more moderate early tempo this time, he should beat this field.

Win: 4
 
 

RACE 5: GAME GIRL (#7)
Game Girl finished last of six in her previous start, but she put in a much stronger effort than that finish would suggest. She got involved in an extremely fast pace (note the red color-coding and pace ratings up to 150), ran off to a clear lead on the turn, and just could not sustain that momentum in the stretch. Now she's dropping to a more appropriate claiming level and she should not face nearly as much pace pressure.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,6,8
 
 

RACE 6: DESERT DUCHESS (#2)
Nouvelle Vague is the deserving favorite off the claim by Linda Rice. However, she got this mare from Chad Brown, so it's not as if she can be expected to improve on her form. While Nouvelle Vague has run some of the fastest speed figures in the field, she's also lost at short prices and has generally been a disappointment. I want to take a shot against her with Desert Duchess. This 3-year-old filly ran much better than it appears in her prior start. She got involved in a heated early duel with a runner that ultimately finished last. The fast early pace set things up for late-runners, but Desert Duchess refused to yield in the stretch, and gamely battled back to just lose by a head. She's been picked up out of that race by Mike Maker, who has fantastic numbers off the claim. Over the past five years, Maker is 12 for 50 ($3.71 ROI) first off the claim in turf routes at NYRA tracks.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,7,9
Trifecta: 2,9 with 2,9 with 1,4,6,7,11,12
 
 

RACE 8: THE CROCHERON KID (#5)
The Pace Projector is predicting that Summer Breezing will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, but he's hard to trust after going off form this winter. Likely co-favorite Grand Sky typically puts in a solid effort, but he's a deep closer that may be compromised by a moderate early pace. I'm going to try to beat them both with The Crocheron Kid. This horse has sprinted only a few times in his career, but they've been some of his best efforts. I acknowledge that he was facing a weaker field last time, but he was much the best that day after getting shuffled out of position around the far turn. He possesses the tactical speed to stay closer to the pace if the scenario warrants it.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,4
 
 

RACE 9: DADDYISDOOLEY (#8)
This is the kind of race that could produce a wacky result. I don't completely trust any of the favorites, many of which have little turf experience. That's why I'm picking longshot Daddyisdooley. I know that this filly's lone turf start was pretty uninspiring, but it came against a much stronger group than the one she meets today, and she was just an inexperienced 2-year-old at the time. She's clearly improved since then, as she showed last time out when running a vastly improved speed figure. She actually has plenty of turf pedigree, being by Scat Daddy out of a dam that produced turf sprint winner End Play, and I think she deserves another chance on this surface.

Win/Place: 8