by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 1: TIMBER (#3)
Four runners in this field are coming out of the same race on May 28, which was won by heavy favorite Bustin It. Mighty Zealous put forth the best effort in defeat, but he also worked out a great trip, chasing the pace along the inside in a race where no one made up ground from the back of the pack. While Mighty Zealous can certainly win this race, I'm more interested in Timber, who finished fourth behind him last time. Timber was pushed out into the four path around the far turn before ducking in and losing momentum in upper stretch. He had trouble closing into a pace that really held together, but he was finishing best of all at the wire. He seems to run his best races when he can sit a bit closer to the pace, and that should be the case here with less speed signed on. He's run plenty of speed figures that make him fast enough to win at this level.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,6
 
 

RACE 3: BELLAMY WAY (#3)
The Jimmy Jerkens-trained entry of Adulator and Securitiz is likely to go favored in this spot, but they are an unreliable duo. Adulator just has not been the same horse since returning as a 4-year-old, while Securitiz may need a race off the layoff and prefers longer distances. The runner that they will all have to catch is Wake Up in Malibu, who the Pace Projector is predicting will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. Charlton Baker runners are certainly capable of winning off layoffs, but he finds himself in a tough spot. I'm going to try to beat these horses with Bellamy Way. This New York-bred was overmatched in the Excelsior most recently, but he had previously run a competitive speed figure in his return at Aqueduct. David Cannizzo is having a fantastic meet, and Bellamy Way has enough tactical speed to not be pace-compromised.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 3 with 1,2 with 1,2,4,5

 
 

RACE 4: COMET SIXTY TWO (#4)
Selenite has run the fastest speed figures and kept the best company. If she repeats her recent efforts, this field won't beat her. However, she was claimed out of her most recent start by John Toscano Jr. While he does a fine job off the claim, he's getting this filly from Brad Cox, who is one of the most successful trainers in the country. Runners like this are usually bad bets, so I want to look for an alternative. My top selection is Comet Sixty Two, who really should have won last time. She was ridden into traffic at the quarter pole behind some tiring runners, losing momentum at a crucial point. All things considered she did well to get beaten by only a nose. This one-turn mile is a perfect distance for her.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,6
 
 

RACE 6: ACOUSTIC (#4)
I'm not quite sure what to do with likely favorite Snag. He is facing a much weaker field than the ones he's met in recent starts, and he's coming out of a race that featured a very slow pace, which compromised his chances. However, he is now dropping in for a claiming tag abruptly off that effort, which may be a sign that he's just gone off form. I don't trust this horse at a short price. This race should feature an honest pace with speeds like Professor Snape and Djulpan in the field, so I'm taking a shot with closer Acoustic. He was running at the same level last time, but the winner of that race, Astounding, was simply too good for that field, and I don't think he's meeting any foes that are quite that talented here. Acoustic was racing down inside in an uncomfortable spot for much of his trip last time, and got shuffled back at a few points. He didn't find running room until late in the stretch, but finished willingly once clear. I think he's subtly improved for Rudy Rodriguez.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,7
 
 

RACE 7: BENNY BIG BOY (#4)
Based on their prior turf form, Union Riches and He's Cheeky would have to be considered the most likely winners of this race. Both of them have run turf races that could win at this level, while almost all of the other horses in this race have either not run particularly well on turf or have not tried this surface at all. That said, there is one horse with prior turf experience that may deserve one more chance getting back on this surface. Benny Big Boy's turf starts as a 2-year-old are not particularly inspiring. He ran better than it appears in his debut last summer, but it was downhill from there. However, he does have a very strong turf pedigree, and his most recent effort, which came on dirt, suggests that he may have finally turned a corner. That huge speed figure improvement indicates he may now be ready to fulfill his potential on grass. It's a bit of a reach, but it's the kind of race that invites some guesswork.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5