by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 2: PASSING MOMENTS (#1)
Veil is likely to go off as the favorite here, but she did not do that much running in her only start during the past year. She is dropping in class, as are a few others in this race, but I think there are more interesting options at better prices. My top pick is Passing Moments, who makes her second start for Tim Hills. I don't know what Elvis Trujillo's plan was in her debut, but he sent her forward starting around the half-mile pole, making a suicidal premature move from last to first within the span of about a furlong. Others that were more patiently ridden had more left in reserve for the stretch drive and she faded from contention. She should have gotten plenty of experience out of that race, and she's certainly bred to get better on turf as a half-sister to five turf winners who all won multiple races on this surface. The rider switch to Javier Castellano makes her irresistible in this spot.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,8,9
 
 

RACE 4: VIOLET BLUE (#7)
I'm not a huge fan of the two 4-year-old fillies in this race coming out of the March 15 maiden race at Gulfstream. The Chad Brown-trained If You Say So ran the best race that day after encountering traffic on the far turn, but I think they're meeting a couple of decent 3-year-olds in this spot who should have more room for improvement. The obvious choice is Empressof the Nile, but I'm taking a small shot against her with Violet Blue, who finished just behind her last time. Violet Blue was reserved at the back of the pack for much of that race and simply was left with too much ground to make up in the lane. All things considered, I thought she stayed on well and was finishing strongest of all across the wire. This daughter of marathoner Americain should love the added ground she gets to work with. Futhermore, Jimmy Toner, who gets just a 17 Trainer Rating with debuters, gets a 91 Trainer Rating with second-time starters.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,5
 
 

RACE 5: SCARLET GODDESS (#10)
I suppose the horse to beat is B Three off her good effort against slightly tougher competition last time, but she worked out a great trip that day and is not a particularly formidable favorite. I'm instead leaning toward Scarlet Goddess, who finally gets back on turf after making quite a splash at Saratoga last summer in her grass debut, nearly leading all the way at 50-1 odds. Since then, she has not run particularly well on dirt, but you could make the argument that her recent dirt form is just as strong as it was prior to that turf debut almost a year ago. Furthermore, it's a positive sign that she's finally putting races back to back after struggling to stay on the racetrack for the better part of the past year.

Win/Place: 10
 
 

RACE 7: PAID ADMISSION (#4)
The Pace Projector is predicting that Lord Commander will be clearly in front early in a situation favoring the leader. At first glance, he looks like a deserving favorite, but upon closer inspection I'd be a little skeptical. His win two back was accomplished with the aid of a strong rail bias, and last time he was getting awfully leg weary in the late stages despite his 3-5 odds. It's never a good sign when Linda Rice so abruptly gives up on horses like this, as she did in his most recent start. If he runs off in the early stages once again, I'm hoping it creates a situation that allows Paid Admission to rally from off the pace. This horse had no chance going seven furlongs against tougher foes last time, but his prior effort at a more realistic claiming level is actually better than it seems, considering that he was trying to close over a speed-favoring surface.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,7
 
 

RACE 8: SCHEME (#5) / RIMANISEMPREFORTE (#7)
Vagabond and Penjade come into this race having earned some of the fastest speed figures and faced the toughest competition in the field, but both are returning from significant layoffs and are meeting an intriguing group of up-and-comers. One of those is 3-year-old filly Scheme, who ran well in two starts at Gulfstream. She rallied from the back of the pack to win her debut at long odds before running better than it seems in her second start, when she encountered traffic trouble in the stretch. She gets a positive rider switch to Rajiv Maragh for this race. At a huge price, I also want to try to get Rimanisempreforte somewhere into the exotics – likely underneath. This filly was extremely green last summer at Saratoga in her turf debut and did not run nearly as poorly as it seems. Since then she's improved on dirt and may be getting back to her preferred surface here. She could outperform her odds.

Win: 5
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 5,7 with 1,4,5,6,7,9
Trifecta: 4,5,9 with 1,4,5,6,9 with 7