by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 2: TALAAQY (#4)
The entry was made the favorite, with the more fancied half of the duo being Wind Tartare, who faced solid stakes performers like Rymska and Cavale Doree in France last year and now makes her first U.S. start for Chad Brown. Shug McGaughey's impressive last-out maiden winner Initiate is also likely to take plenty of money off a facile victory at Tampa Bay Downs. Both of these fillies make plenty of sense, but I'm taking a shot with Talaaqy, who figures to go off at a more enticing price. She's coming out of the same Keeneland allowance race as a few others in here, but she had real trouble in the stretch when she was never able to find a clear path. She had previously run well in her first two starts at Gulfstream, and I think she's dangerous here at a price.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5,6
 
 

RACE 3: KATIE ICE (#3)
I hadn't originally planned to land on this filly, but as I went through the competitors in this race, there is just horse after horse that I don't want. Milaya is untrustworthy on the drop in class, and I don't think either Hold On Momma or Madame Aamoura ran as well as their ultimate finishing positions make it seem last time. I suppose Wildcat Belle can wire the field, but she beat a weak group two back. Instead, I'm taking a shot with Katie Ice. I know her last race was awful, but she had actually run reasonably well two back. Most importantly, she is getting an interesting barn change. Trainer Robert Falcone Jr. has done very well first off the claim over the past year. According to DRF Formulator, he is 6 for 18 (33 percent) with a $4.30 ROI in those situations.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5
 
 

RACE 4: SUMMER OF JOY (#3)
Zuzanna is the horse to beat for Graham Motion. However, his numbers in this situation are fairly poor. According to DRF Formulator, over the past five years, he is just 2 for 29 (7 percent) with an ROI of $0.41 when dropping runners from allowance to claiming company. I'm trying to beat her with Summer of Joy. This filly got a peculiar trip in her turf debut last month, getting dragged out of the race early before racing greenly through the final three furlongs. All things considered, she didn't run that badly, and one would imagine that she can show more speed than that. She actually has a turf pedigree.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,6,7
 
 

RACE 5: LOUISIANA LADY (#7)
Runners like first-time starter Lovely Livia and proven turf sprinter Classy Chris make plenty of sense here. However, I think there's an interesting runner at a price that could be worked into the exotics – or perhaps even win this race. Louisiana Lady is not as hopeless as her morning-line odds suggest. After all, she figures to appreciate the return to sprinting, and her last race was a stronger effort than it seems. She did not get the best ride or trip that day and lost contact with the field on the far turn. Despite all of that, she actually made a decent late move in the stretch and was galloping out fastest of all after the wire. Now she's back in the right kind of spot and gets a positive rider switch to Mike Luzzi.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,5,9,10
Trifecta: 1,2,5 with 1,2,5,9,10 with 7
 
 

RACE 8: ADVENTIST (#2)
I know the race did not come up as being particularly fast in terms of speed figures, but Adventist's turf debut is worth watching. He was allowed to lope along leisurely at the back of the pack in the early stages of that race, but absolutely inhaled his rivals when asked to go at the top of the stretch. He's moving up in class out of that effort, but trainer Mike Maker does remarkably well with runners coming off wins in turf routes. Over the past five years, he is 117 for 401 (29 percent) with a $2.09 ROI in those situations – impressive stats given the large sample size. Adventist had shown real ability despite racing greenly in his early dirt races and appears to have finally found his true calling on the turf.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,8,9
Trifecta: 2 with 4,8,9 with ALL