by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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RACE 3: FIRST CHARMER (#3)
The entry figures to go off at a short price here with the Chad Brown-trained Lady Alexandra being the more fancied of the two runners. She can certainly win, but I think this race is more wide open than her 6-5 morning line price would suggest. I'm taking a shot with First Charmer, who may fly under the radar here. She steadily improved for this barn last season, and really came alive during the summer and fall. Her Aqueduct turf finale at this level was not nearly as bad as it looks considering the pace and distance. The layoff is a minor concern, but she ran better than it seems off a similar layoff last year when she got a terrible trip. She loves this Belmont course and will be a price despite the presence of Irad Ortiz.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,7,9
 
 

RACE 4: PULLING G’S (#3)
You can make a reasonable case for many contenders in this highly competitive claiming race. It feels like the early pace should be somewhat contested with speeds Big Guy Ian, Proven Commodity, and Alright Alright in the mix. For that reason, I'm hoping that Pulling G's can rally from off the pace as he returns to the New York circuit. This lightly raced 7-year-old is coming off some performances at Oaklawn and Fair Grounds that may be slightly stronger than they appear to be, considering the competition. He's taking a significant drop in class here, and trainer Robertino Diodoro already has a win at this meet.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,6,9
 
 

RACE 5: LOUISIANA LADY (#7)
If Elenzee runs back to his turf race at Fair Grounds in January, he is going to win this race. Yet I think there's an interesting runner at a price that could be worked into the exotics. Louisiana Lady is not as hopeless as her morning-line odds suggest. After all, she figures to appreciate the return to sprinting, and her last race was a stronger effort than it seems. She did not get the best ride or trip that day, and lost contact with the field on the far turn. Despite all of that, she actually made a decent late move in the stretch and was galloping out fastest of all after the wire. Now she gets a positive rider switch to Mike Luzzi.

Win/Place: 7
Trifecta: 11 with 7 with 1,2,5,6,8,9
Trifecta: 11 with 1,2,5,6,8,9 with 7
 
 

RACE 6: VEIL DANCE (#5)
In a race where it's difficult to find horses that have proven turf sprint form, Veil Dance just makes a whole lot of sense. She's run well sprinting over this course, and she figure to get a fair pace to close into with speeds such as Esther the Queen and Really in the mix. David Donk gets a solid 83 Trainer Rating with runners coming off layoffs of this type.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,7,8,9,12
 
 

RACE 7: MONTRACHET (#3)
Eloquent Riddle is a legitimate favorite here as she gets some class relief. She was simply overmatched in Gulfstream's Davona Dale and should find this field more to her liking. However, some questions remain about how far she really wants to go, and there are some interesting runners at more appetizing prices that have already proven their preference for this distance. I'm taking a shot with the speedy Montrachet. This filly ran well on a fast track as a 2-year-old and gets that kind of going here. She defeated subsequent stakes winner Lockdown in her Aqueduct maiden score, and now returns as a more mature 3-year-old. She was a sizeable 2-year-old and should have grown into that frame with added maturity. According to DRF Formulator, Christophe Clement, who has started strongly at Belmont, is 12 for 31 (39%) with a $2.95 ROI when giving non-debuting runners Lasix for the first time on dirt.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,7
Trifecta: 3 with 1,4,5,7 with 1,4,5,7
 
 

RACE 9: SMART THROB (#9)
There is a lot going on in this puzzling finale. Grande Beso gets a huge rider switch, Pana Etienne figure to appreciate the drop in class, and Eighth Commandment would be formidable if she draws in. All of these runners should be used, but my top pick is first time turfer Smart Throb. While there is not much pedigree on her dam's side, her sire, Smart Bird, was a proven turf router. Smart Throb faced better horses against maiden special weights, both at Aqueduct and Laurel, and should appreciate the stretch-out. This Graham Motion trainee is an interesting new face in this group.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 5,7,10,13