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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 3: Maiden Special Weight at 7 furlongs on turf

We've seen many of the progeny of D'Funnybone take to the turf, and D'ELOQUENT (#3) was no exception, as he ran better than it appears in his lone grass start. The pace of that race was slow (color-coded in blue), and D'Eloquent was unwisely rated despite the fact that he was projected to be up on the lead in that race. He actually did well to nearly get up for second in a race that was won wire to wire. His connections tried to get him back on the grass in two straight races, but both were rained off the turf. Today, I expect John Velazquez to have him forwardly placed (the Pace Projector is predicting he’ll be on the lead), and I prefer him to fellow contenders Uncle Chester (#5) and Whatstotalkabout (#10).

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,10

Race 5: Claiming $40,000 at 8.5 furlongs on turf

From a class perspective, THE CATMANCAN (#4) stands out in this field. His last turf start came against much tougher N1X allowance company, as the 112 race rating of that race would indicate. All things considered, he actually ran pretty well that day considering that he was stuck down on the rail in behind horses when the real running began at the quarter pole. He was never winning, but he was hardly disgraced in defeat. Today the Pace Projector is predicting that he's quick enough to be on the lead, so I'm hoping that Angel Arroyo lets him use his natural speed. This horse has been a bit inconsistent at times, but he's held good form for the new barn this year, and I think he'll have a major say in the outcome.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 5,7,8,9

Race 7: Allowance at 6.5 furlongs

I found this to be a very confusing race, featuring more horses that I didn't want to bet than those that I did. I don't want either of the two entries. Proven Commodity (#1A) and Great Stuff (#2) are the more dangerous halves of each respective pairing, but both are going to be less-than-appetizing prices due to the presences of their running mates. Mewannarose (#7) comes into this race having earned the highest last-out speed figure, but that came against three overmatched rivals when he had everything his own way up front, and he faces a much more difficult set of circumstances today. The pace figures to be honest enough, with Bond Vigilante and Proven Commodity also likely to show speed.

That leads me to my selection, LOS BORRACHOS (#4). I know this horse looks a little cheap, but he's one of the few runners in this race that I can anticipate offering some value. He was beating up on weaker foes last time, but he certainly won in stylish fashion, and he may not have to improve much on that effort to be a serious factor here. Prior to that, he was compromised by slow paces and a speed-favoring track. Abigail Adsit's runners have been performing uncharacteristically well at this meet, and she gets an 81 trainer rating when teaming up with Eric Cancel.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5,6,7

Race 8: Allowance at 8.5 furlongs on turf

I'll freely admit that this is a bit of a guess in another difficult race, but I think recent import MIKELINO (#1) could be a live long shot. I acknowledge that he was facing relatively weak company in France relative to the European form of a horse like Almanaar. He also was soundly beaten in many of those races, apparently struggling with consistency. However, I wonder if those struggles stemmed from a distaste for soft turf courses, which he encountered many times. Watching a replay of his most recent win on firm turf, one sees that he displayed an impressive turn of foot that was absent in his starts over rain-softened ground. It's good to see John Velazquez take the mount, and this son of Dubawi is sure to be an enticing price.

After all, I just cannot make a strong enough case for most of the horses that figure to take money. That includes the aforementioned Almanaar (#8), who got too rank in the early stages of his U.S. debut last time and is not helped by drawing an outside post position today.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,6,7,8

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight at 5.5 furlongs

If she draws in off the also-eligible list, I want to bet KAREN KAN (#11) in the finale. Her debut was a much better effort than it might appear. She was bumped at the start, which cost her about two lengths, before getting rushed up into contention under an aggressive Kendrick Carmouche. She made a middle move on the turn before flattening out in the stretch in a race that came apart late. This filly was an expensive two-year-old purchase earlier this year, and she took quite a bit of money in her debut for an outfit that isn't known for its prowess with first-time starters. I’ll use her with Sand City (#6), who also ran well in that same race but is likely to take more money today, She’s My Ghibli (#9), who was a late-running second after breaking slowly in her first start, and Ava Rae (#5), who is bred to be precocious and shows some decent workouts.

Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 5,6,9