>>Visit TimeformUS for Wednesday's Highlight Horse and PPs
by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Race 4: Maiden Special Weight at 7 furlongs on turf
Chad Brown and Christophe Clement both hold strong hands in this race. The former sends out Conquest Lucknlove (#2), who turns back in distance after being claimed back by Brown for new owners, and My Fair Lily (#4), who has run well in both of her turf sprints but must stretch out. Clement is represented by Akron Gold (#1), who has had more chances than the others, but has only sprinted on turf once, and Crazy About Jazz (#10), who was buried down inside in the stretch of her debut. All are worth using in some capacity, but I’m interested in another runner at a bigger price.
ARABIC STYLE (#5) is coming out of a tough maiden race on dirt up at the Spa, and probably needed the start. Now Kiaran McLaughlin immediately switches her to turf, and there are some things to like. This filly has the pedigree to handle this surface, since she’s a close relative to recent turf sensation Dickinson (their dams are full-sisters and both are by Medaglia d’Oro). Kiaran gets a 100 trainer rating with horses adding Lasix and has also had his share of success with maidens switching to turf.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4,10
Race 6: Claiming $40,000 at 6 furlongs on turf
I suppose Avery Maeve (#5) is the horse to beat off a fast maiden win up at Saratoga, but wasn’t last time the right time to have her at 16/1? She can win, but I don’t love her at a short price. This race is wide open beyond her, so I’m looking for a runner that could get a little overlooked in the wagering. I think that might be COTTON CANDY CUTIE (#7). She’s only sprinted on turf twice in her career, but you could argue that those races were two of her best efforts. She was a decent third behind the talented Ancient Secret when coming off a layoff earlier this year and then ran well to be second in a similar spot in June. Her recent form looks a little disappointing, but I don’t think she really wants to go two turns. Now she gets some slight class relief and should work out a decent trip sitting just in behind what is likely to be a moderate pace.
Veil Dance (#1) was a decent third behind Ortiga, who would be a strong favorite in this spot. I could use her in the exacta as well as Double Dose (#3), who actually has some decent turf races and may find this turf sprint to her liking, and Nile Princess (#11), who should appreciate the turnback in distance.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,5,11
Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming at 10 furlongs on turf
Sassy Little Lila (#3) may be the best horse in this race, but I think there are reasons to take a stand against her at what should be a very short price. While she was visually impressive in her maiden win up at Saratoga, it must be noted that she was allowed to set a slow pace (color-coded in blue) and race over the best ground while riding the rail on the inner turf course. Now she has to prove she can stretch out to 10 furlongs in her first start against winners. Penjade (#1) is her main rival, but she’s starting to run out of chances as she’s piling up second place finishes despite running well in all of her starts.
Instead, I’m going with HAVANA MOON (#7), who figures to be a significantly higher price. Her last race was somewhat lackluster, but she’s not at her best going a flat mile. This distance suits her much better and I think she can build on her race three back when she actually ran pretty well at this level after having to wait and search for room in the stretch. Obviously, she was overmatched in her other two starts in this country, and I think her overall form is better than it might appear.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight at 5.5 furlongs
JUPITER RISING (#9) didn’t do that much running in his debut, but I’m going to trust in Mike Hushion in this spot. While he does well enough with his first-time starters (78 trainer rating), he’s one of the best in the business with second-time starting maidens (100 trainer rating). This gelding took a little money in his debut, but was handled like a horse that needed the race. Jose Ortiz really didn’t abuse him in the stretch that day after they went a little wide around the far turn, and he figures to move forward off that effort.
Win: 9