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by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Race 1: Maiden Claiming $40,000 at 9 furlongs on turf

There Goes Ben (#8) is definitely a player in this race, but he's not the kind of horse that I want to bet at a short price. While he defeated two of today's rivals at Saratoga last time, I actually prefer both of the runners that finished behind him. Whereas There Goes Ben got to make a run through along the rail at a time when that was the place to be on the Saratoga turf courses, both Dancer's Edge and Mr. Sam had to make wide runs into the stretch.

Mr. Sam (#4) is probably the one that did more running that day, since he had to go four-wide on the far turn when launching his rally, but I'm slightly more interested in DANCER'S EDGE (#2) at what should be a bigger price. This horse was very green when he started his career, but he has slowly but surely been putting it together. Last time, his rider seemed intent on losing contact with the field early and he just left his mount with way too much ground to make up. I think the nine furlongs of this race suits him, and I like the switch to John Velazquez.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Box: 2,4
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,7,8

Race 2: Claiming $25,000 at 8.5 furlongs on turf

Doukas (#1) and Angel Choir (#4) are the two shortest prices on the morning line, but each has separate questions to answer in this spot. Doukas has done her best running at shorter trips and is always somewhat dubious when asked to get distances beyond a mile, while Angel Choir must overcome a lengthy layoff. Both must be used in some capacity, but I prefer a horse with recency.

SARATOGA SMOKE (#3) was a victim of her rider overthinking things last time out. She came out of the gate looking for the lead, as she always does, but Jose Ortiz reined her in after a few strides when it became clear that a couple of others had the same idea. However, instead of letting Saratoga Smoke draft in behind that first flight, he took her all the way to the back of the pack. When it was finally time for her to make a run, she had to go four- to five-wide and circle the entire field. This time, with Javier Castellano aboard, I have greater confidence that she’ll be placed in the right spot relative to the pace. I think she's in deceptively good form and can beat this field. In addition to the two favorites, I would also use Rockin Alli (#2) alongside her, since she is facing by far the softest field she’s met so far in 2016.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4
Trifecta Key Box: 2,3 with 2,3 with 1,4

Race 3: Maiden Special Weight at 7 furlongs

Cursor (#5) figures to go off at a pretty short price here, and I really have no knocks against her. Mark Hennig is not known for winning with his first-time starters, but this daughter of Quality Road put in a strong rally over the final three-eighths of her debut to get within two lengths of the winner at the wire. I'm not sure about the overall quality of that field, but it's not as if she's meeting the deepest group of maiden fillies this time around either.

That said, I think the value in this race might lie with COURTMEWITHCARATS (#6). She was somewhat intriguing getting on dirt last time, and actually put in a much stronger effort than it might appear. That was one of the fastest two-year-old maiden races run in New York all year, so this filly was hardly disgraced in finishing sixth. However, she might have finished even closer had she not been green in the early going. Today, I like that she's drawn outside and is getting a rider switch to Jose Ortiz. Don't be surprised if she gives Cursor all she can handle. Finally, at a bigger price, I could also include Drip Brew (#2), who was hindered by a very wide trip last time and may be the controlling speed this time.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight at 8.5 furlongs on turf

I'm not particularly scared of Church Social (#2) or Tapit Together (#3), who come out of the same race at Saratoga, and I don't get the appeal of Withhold (#1), who didn't do much running against a weaker field at Monmouth last time. Therefore, I'm open to some more creative possibilities, and the one that I've settled on is TIZACITY (#4). Her lone sibling was a turf winner, and her sire, Tizway, has proven to be a solid grass influence. I don't particularly like either of her two races, but that's probably for the best, since she's unlikely to take money based on dirt form. That said, it is worth noting that she had a meltdown prior to the start last time when delaying the load for a couple of minutes. Ralph Nicks has given her some time since then and adds blinkers today, so we hope she'll be more focused.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3

Race 7: Claiming $35,000 at 8 furlongs on turf

There are three runners that really interest me in this spot, and at least two of them should be decent prices. The most obvious one is Sly Tom (#7), who makes his second start since the claim by Joe Sharp. While I'm not convinced that he was ever going to win last time, it is worth noting that he was never fully clear in the stretch. He'll be featured prominently in my plays, but I prefer two of his competitors.

ON TAP (#3) intrigues me as he gets back on turf. He has a ton of pedigree for this surface, and his lone start on grass is better than it appears, since he was never fully clear in the stretch that day. His last race indicates he's in good form, and he should be one of the pace players in a race lacking much early speed today.

The other horse that I want to use is SMOKEY BROWN (#1A). This one is at the mercy of the pace, since he is a confirmed closer. However, he's making just his second start on Lasix after showing subtle improvement in his first start with it last time. That day, he was unwisely sent through a tight opening along the rail and lost some momentum at the top of the stretch. Now he gets a positive rider switch to Irad Ortiz and should not be taken lightly.

Win/Place: 1,3
Exacta Box: 1,3,7
Exacta: 1,3 with 2,5,6

Race 8: Allowance at 10 furlongs on turf

I'm a fan of GOTACHANCETODANCE (#7), and I believe she's going to be awfully tough to beat as she stretches out in distance in her second start since the layoff. Don't put too much stock in her return race, since she's just not at her best going a mile and a sixteenth. That said, it's not as if she even ran that badly behind the stakes-bound winner Mexican Gold. Joel Rosario was never able to get her off the inside in the stretch, which may have discouraged her from coming with a more effective late run. If this mare can get back to the races she was running at the end of last year, when she took down an allowance race at this distance and was a fast-closing third in a slow-paced Long Island Handicap, she should prove to be too good for this field.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,6
Trifecta: 7 with 2,3,6 with 2,3,5,6,8,9
Trifecta: 7 with 5,8,9 with 2,3,6