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Race 2: Claiming $25,000 at 6.5 furlongs

Captain Serious (#5) was installed as the favorite on the morning line, but this horse is nearly impossible to trust. In two of his last three starts, he has propped coming off the far turn in an apparent attempt to disobey his rider's urging, and in the only race that he actually completed, he showed not a trace of the stakes-winning form that we would expect from such a horse. I can’t use him at all today. His main rival is Bug Juice (#2), but I find him difficult to endorse in this spot as well. There is not that much pace in this race, and Bug Juice got an absolutely perfect setup when he won two back. At bigger prices, I’d rather use runners like Street Lord (#1) and Tug of War (#6).

However, my top selection is GLOBAL POSITIONING (#3). This horse put in a stellar effort on August 4, outdueling his pace rivals through fast early fractions (color-coded in red) before just succumbing to the closers late. Some might say that he's taken a step in the wrong direction for his new connections, but he may have disliked the slop two back, and his most recent effort on turf was actually quite encouraging. Today, he figures to be the controlling speed if Manny Franco decides to be aggressive, and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors frontrunners.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,6

Race 5: Starter Allowance at 8.5 furlongs on turf

I realize that she is apparently moving up in class as she steps up out of claiming company and into this starter allowance race, but I believe that EQHO (#6) has landed in a good spot. First of all, that last race was tougher than the claiming tag would suggest, especially considering that the race rating is actually equal to the preliminary rating of today's race. Furthermore, two runners that finished behind her last time—Lady Bling and Hold Me Down—actually came back to finish first and second in a race here last week. The pace of that August 22 race was slow, but Eqho still came with a relentless run from the back of the pack after getting spun wide off the far turn, and nearly got up for the win. I don't mind the claim by Stephen Lyster, who does not claim many horses but gets an excellent 94 trainer rating off trainer switches. I believe Eqho will appreciate getting back to Belmont Park and a course that is more conducive to her closing style.

Others that I would use with my top selection include Weather Girl (#1), who did get a great trip last time but has been in good form while facing solid New York-bred allowance company, Khaleesi Kat (#4), who may have been hindered by having to make a wide late run against the race flow last time, and Amazing Anne (#7), who is coming off a layoff but has previously run races that make her competitive.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,7

Race 7: Allowance at 6 furlongs on turf

This is hardly the toughest New York-bred N1X allowance race we've run this year. While Heated Verdict is the horse to beat, he's so obvious that he could end up going off at a shorter price than his recent form actually merits. Instead, I prefer the runner that finished just behind him last time. While Heated Verdict (#6) had some documented early issues in his last race—he was off a step slowly and was somewhat rank through the opening furlong—he worked out an absolutely perfect trip thereafter. The same cannot be said for FEARTHEFALCON (#5), who was never able to get to the rail, which was important during a time period when that was the place to be on the turf course. Furthermore, Manny Franco had to wait too long to find room at the top of the stretch as Heated Verdict got the jump on him. There is no doubt in my mind that Fearthefalcon would have beaten today's favorite had their trips been swapped. I find it encouraging that Steve Klesaris's runners have been performing well so far at Belmont, and I think this gelding can pull off the minor upset today.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,6,8

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming at 8.5 furlongs on turf

She isn't going to be that great of a price, but this race is all about ACK NAUGHTY (#8). Sure, I suppose it's fair to be critical of a horse that has finished second six times in nine career starts, but it's important to look at who was beating her in those races. After all, just this year she's been second to the likes of Capriana and Jcs Shooting Star, both of whom would be odds-on favorites in this race. Her last race appears to be disappointing, but you must recognize that she was badly compromised by her trip. Ack Naughty got away from the gate awkwardly and could never get to the inside under Irad Ortiz. When she tried to make her late run, she was forced out into the six- or seven-path coming into the stretch, which slowed her momentum. All things considered, she did well to even grab fourth place. With a cleaner trip today, she should prove superior to this field.

Win: 8
Trifecta: 8 with 4,6,7 with 3,4,6,7,9
Trifecta: 8 with 3,9 with 4