by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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Race 1: Maiden Special Weight at 6 furlongs

Hamptons Holiday (#8) has run well in both of his career starts and may have been hindered by a wide trip last time. He's shown himself to be a strong finisher and is very much the horse to beat. That said, he faces a challenge from second-time starter Can You Diggit (#1A), who has a right to move forward with experience. He made a decent late run into a slow pace (color-coded in blue) in his debut and should have benefitted from that effort.

I'll use both of them, but I'm interested in long shot TOGA TOSCONOVA (#5) as a horse that could potentially sneak into the exacta or trifecta. He was off very slowly in his debut, but actually made a significant move into contention on the backstretch. He flattened out late and finished some 13 lengths behind today's rival Hamptons Holiday, but I believe he has a right to do better this time. Seven furlongs is a demanding distance for a first-time starter and he appeared to get something out of the race. It's encouraging to see Jose Ortiz take the mount.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,8
Trifecta: 1,8 with 1,8 with 5

Race 4: Claiming $25,000 at 6 furlongs on turf

If Virga (#5) repeats his prior effort on turf, he is probably going to win this race. However, you have to wonder why his connections have continued to drop him in class despite the fact that he's run well enough to be placed in some tougher races. I'm always skeptical of horses like this, especially at short prices, and I want an alternative. That horse is BOW TIE AFFAIR (#12), whose last couple of turf sprints are both better than they appear at first glance. Two back he was squeezed back at the start, forcing his rider to steady him sharply and lose a good four or five lengths in the opening furlong. All things considered, he actually did well to nearly get up for third. Then last time, while he didn't have trouble, he was hindered by a very slow pace (color-coded in blue) that favored the frontrunners and horses near the rail. Today, I'm hopeful that he'll get a fair pace to close into, and I like the rider switch to Joel Rosario.

Win/Place: 12
Exacta Box: 5,12

Race 5: Allowance at 8 furlongs on turf

This might be the most interesting race on the card as you can make a valid case for almost all of the runners in this field. However, there is one in particular that I want to bet today. FOREVER IN LOVE (#9) made his debut against open company last time and he just didn't get the right trip. That race was run at a time towards the end of the Saratoga meet when the rails were down and horses that raced along the hedge had an advantage. While Forever in Love was not extremely wide, he did have to race in the two- to three-path throughout and was spun even wider for the stretch drive. Considering that the race was won by a frontrunner, I don't think he had a chance to put forth his best effort. Today, he figures to get more pace to close into with the likes of speeds such as Mighty Mo, Toughest 'Ombre, and Cloontia among the cast of rivals. Forever in Love figures to be a fair price today, and I believe he's good enough to come out on top given the right setup.

Others to include are Mighty Mo (#1), who was steadied after getting intimidated at the top of the stretch when facing tougher company last time; the New York-bred Cloontia (#4), who may have competition for the early lead this time; Intensity (#6), who has a right to move forward off his decent return for Chad Brown; and Cave Johnson (#8), who might have won last time had he not been forced to alter course at the top of the stretch.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,4,6,8

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming at 8 furlongs

The Rudy Rodriguez entry (#1) figures to take plenty of money, since both runners could have a say in the outcome. However, coupled entries are typically overbet in these situations, and I believe there is a viable alternative in HIGHWAY STAR (#8). The fact of the matter is that this filly has never run a poor race on dirt. Even though it was her first loss on the surface, her last race might have been her best yet as she contested the pace through fast fractions (color-coded in red) and hung in gamely through the stretch in a race that was won by a horse that closed from the back of the pack. Highway Star handled the two turns well enough, but I think she's better suited to the one-turn mile of this race. I like that she drew an outside post position, which should allow her rider, Jomar Torres, to survey the runners to his inside after the break. This filly is unlikely to drift much lower than her morning line price despite the fact that she owns the highest last-out speed figure in the field.

At bigger prices, I could also use Hot House Rose (#2), who is a question mark at the distance but figures to control this race on the front end, and Bella Joy (#6), who was no match for the talented Wonder Gal last time but has races going back to last winter that make her competitive.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,6