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Race 1: Claiming $16,000 at 8 furlongs

This race is filled with horses that I just don’t want to bet. That list starts with Zartax (#3). Linda Rice is sending a clear signal that she made a bad claim by immediately dropping this horse in for a bottom-level tag. Linda Rice’s numbers with moves like this aren't terrible, but they are not exactly encouraging for a horse that is going to be a short price. I’m also skeptical of Toohottoevenspeak (#6) and Leitrim (#7), who come out of the same race at Saratoga. The former just looks too obvious in his second start off the layoff, and the latter may not really want a mile anymore. Instead, I have a different idea. 

I realize that SARATOGA SIGHT (#2) ran his best races for Todd Pletcher, but I think his recent form is not as bad as it looks. Two back, he never had a chance when facing a tougher field in an unfavorable pace scenario. Then last time he made a subtle middle move on the far turn before flattening out. He’s a true router, so the distance helps. I know the rider is hard to take, but at least this horse is going to be a generous price.

Win/Place: 2

Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,6,7

Race 2: Maiden Special Weight at 8 furlongs

There are a couple of second-time starters that are going to attract the bulk of the public’s attention in this race. The slight favorite on the morning line is Hemsworth (#1), who finished behind the almighty Theory in his debut. He finished up decently after getting away from the gate a bit slowly and seems like a horse that should appreciate more ground. However, Tom Albertrani gets only a 53 trainer rating with second-time starters and 41 rating with horses running without Lasix. 

Instead, I strongly prefer ADULATION (#6), who was off very slowly, spotting the field a few lengths, in his debut. However, unlike Hemsworth, who was running after the race was over, this horse made a strong middle move down the backstretch and around the far turn. He was flicked away by the well-bet Pletcher debut winner in the stretch, but Adulation may have run the best race in defeat. Ian Wilkes does much better with his second-time starters, and this horse should improve today.

Win: 6

Trifecta: 6 with 1 with 2,3,4,5

Trifecta: 6 with 2,3,4,5 with 1

Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming at 8.5 furlongs

While both Adulator (#1) and Securitiz (#1A) are major contenders for top honors, as a coupled betting interest they are almost guaranteed to go off as an underlay. I’ll have to use them in exotics and multi-race wagers, but I will try to extract some value from this race. 

The horse that I want most is DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING (#6). I understand what Jose Lezcano was trying to do last time, but it backfired. After noticing that Tale of Life was being ridden aggressively out of the gate, he tried to tuck in behind that horse, but his mount ended up becoming extremely rank. To get him to settle, he had to wrangle him much farther back off the pace than he would have liked, which only compromised his chances in a race dominated on the front end. I expect Javier Castellano to have this horse in a stalking position today, and he’s run plenty of races that make him good enough to beat this field.

At a bigger price, I also have to throw in Fast Falcon (#5) out of respect for his overall body of work. Who knows if this horse can run anymore as he returns from a 20-month layoff now at age 7? However, he was once talented enough to finish third, beaten just a neck, in the Travers.

Win: 6

Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,5

Race 8: Allowance at 8 furlongs on turf

I want to stick with horses that have proven turf form. Performance Bonus (#3) is clearly the horse to beat off his two solid performances at this level. One could make a solid argument that he was facing a better field last time, and that race is good enough to win against softer company today. However, Performance Bonus is going to be a very short price, and I think he faces at least one serious challenger.

I prefer CAVE JOHNSON (#7) given what should be a more attractive price. He ran very well against some tough three-year-olds back in May at Belmont, and then may have been slightly hindered by a traffic-filled stretch run two back at Saratoga. After all, he was beaten only three lengths by next-out winners Our Way and Hockey School in that race. He’s in good form, and the Pace Projector is predicting he’ll get some pace to close into.

The other horse to throw in is Contradict (#6), who is a difficult read as he returns from a lengthy layoff. He earned a huge 112 speed figure at Aqueduct last fall, but that performance came over a quirky turf course late in the season.

Win: 7

Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,6

Trifecta: 7 with 3,6 with 3,6

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight at 6 furlongs on turf

Shiraz (#7) is a deserving favorite after finishing well despite a wide trip in his debut. I have no knocks against him, but feel that there are some other interesting horses in this race that will go off at bigger prices. The one that interests me most is first-time turfer BOOKEW BUCKS (#2). This horse is out of a dam that ran well on turf and is a 3/4-sister to turf winner Miss Kew. He showed subtle improvement over the sealed track last time and could wake up with this surface switch today. 

Others that intrigue are Danny's Rush (#4), who was extremely rank through the opening stages of an open company maiden race at Saratoga last time; Appealing Briefs (#5), a half-brother to two turf winners; Dr. Koy (#9), who goes out for capable debut trainer Christophe Clement and whose dam was a three-time turf winner; and Awesome Anthony (#10), who may have faced a decent field at Parx first time out.

Win/Place: 2

Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,5,7,9,10