by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   5 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 2:   10 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 3:   4 - 5 - 7 - 6
Race 4:   7 - 9 - 5 - 10
Race 5:   7 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 6:   7 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 7:   4 - 10 - 2 - 7
Race 8:   4 - 10 - 2 - 9
Race 9:   4 - 1 - 3 - 9

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 2: LADY GRACE (#10)
Shannon’s Girl may be favored after finishing second in both of her starts at this distance. She actually ran very well in her debut at Belmont in July, rallying strongly into a relatively moderate early pace and losing to subsequent stakes winner Miss Technicality. I can excuse her for losing to Newspaperofrecord going two turns in August, but I’m not thrilled with her most recent start. I’m somewhat disappointed that she hasn’t improved at all since that July 6 unveiling, and she benefitted from a fast early pace that fell apart last time out. I actually thought that Getmotherarose ran the better race considering that she was setting that early tempo in her career debut. I’m using both of these fillies, but I’m just not convinced that either one is particularly formidable. I want to bet Lady Grace. Her Saratoga debut did not come back as a fast race, but I think there was quality in that field. The winner, Stellar Agent, has gone on to place in two stakes behind Newspaperofrecord, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Lady Grace garnered only lukewarm support in that debut despite having worked in an impressive 10 seconds flat at the OBS sale in April. She’s bred to be a nice filly as a daughter of the effective turf-sprint sire Kantharos out of a dam who has produced three turf winners. Lady Grace probably could have been second in that debut had she run a more professional race, and I think she’s set to take a step forward in her second start. I think it’s also worth considering a couple of the first time starters. Positive Skew makes her debut for Chad Brown off a decent series of workouts. She’s bred to be a turf horse and Brown has some success with these types. The one that’s slightly more appealing to me is And She’s Gone, since she’s an expensive daughter of War Front out of a dam that has produced 4 turf runners in addition to millionaire sprinter Clearly Now.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,2,5,6
 

RACE 4: MISS FLAMBE (#7)
I’m not enamored with the horses who are likely to take money in this spot. Ideational may go off as the favorite considering Chad Brown’s record with first-time starters. Over the past five years, he is 5 for 12 ($4.40 ROI) with debuting New York-bred 2-year-olds in turf routes. This filly actually has plenty of turf pedigree on the dam’s side since her second dam is Coretta, a multiple graded stakes winner who finished second in the inaugural Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. More recently, her dam produced turf winner Brother O’Connell. The problem is that Noble Mission has gotten off to a slow start as a sire, with his progeny winning just one of 52 turf starts. Those in this field with turf form are not very appealing to me. Plink Freud earned a strong speed figure in her debut, but I have doubts about the overall quality of that race. She regressed next time out, and I don’t see a ton of evidence that she is supposed to be much better stretching out. The first-time turfers are more intriguing. One likely to attract support is Winifred J, who has obvious pedigree for this surface. Her dam won both of her turf starts, and her first foal was a turf winner as a 2-year-old. I’m using her, but the one who interests me most is Miss Flambe. At first glance, she doesn’t appear to have much turf breeding, but it’s worth digging a bit deeper into her pedigree. While her dam did most of her work on dirt, she did win on turf with a solid performance. Most of her progeny have not tried the surface, but she did produce one turf winner. However, I’m most interested in Miss Flambe’s sire, Alpha. I have a hunch that this freshman sire will turn out to be more of a turf influence. Despite being a son of Bernardini, who ran on dirt, Alpha gets plenty of turf breeding from his Nijinsky-sired dam. We’ve already seen a few Alpha-sired 2-year-olds run on this circuit, and a number of them have preferred turf. Miss Flambe ran pretty well in her debut while facing a pair of talented juveniles, and she just got the wrong trip over a rail-biased track last time. One other filly that I want to include at a big price is Y’allcomenow. Her lone turf start is worth watching, since her jockey did not give her the best of rides and she may be capable of much better with Luis Saez aboard. Don’t leave her out of exotics.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,5,9,10
 

RACE 5: AREWEHAVINGFUNYET (#7)
I have serious doubts about the likely favorite. Saida has run well on sloppy, sealed racetracks in her last two starts, but I am concerned about her making the switch to a fast dirt track. She’s really more of a turf horse, and her recent form is not quite as strong as it seems at first glance. She was the beneficiary of a very speed-favoring track when she earned that high speed figure at Saratoga two back, so I doubt we’ll see a repeat of that effort. I want to beat her with Arewehavingfunyet. This hard-knocking mare is just very honest and seems to run well no matter which barn she’s in. She showed a real affinity for the one-turn mile over this Aqueduct surface last winter, and she figures to sit a good trip stalking on the outside. Furthermore, the claim by Gary Contessa may really move her up. Typically, this is not a great claiming barn, but more recently, it has had a great deal of success with new acquisitions. Over the last 90 days, Contessa is 5 for 12 (42 percent, $6.95 ROI) first off the claim.

Win: 7
Exacta: 7 with 1,5,6
 

RACE 6: SUAS (#7)
Smokin Platinum is going to be favored in this race on the basis of his maiden victory last time out, his first start in nearly a year. While the raw time of that race was very fast, I have some doubts about the overall quality of the field he was beating. The second and third place finishers were both entered for turf, so it’s hard for me to believe that they ran quite as fast as some of the speed figures would suggest. To Smokin Platinum’s credit, he did run well within the context of that race after a sluggish start, and it’s possible that he could move forward second off the layoff. However, I think he faces two legitimate foes from the Rudy Rodriguez barn. I’m intrigued by – but slightly less interested in betting on – Freud’s Affair. I wonder when this trainer switch actually happened, since this Finger Lakes-based horse ran at NYRA tracks in 3 of his last 4 starts and has been working with Rudy Rodriguez for at least a month. His recent form is decent, and I suppose some may assume that Rudy will be able to improve him. It’s possible, but I prefer his other runner. Suas ran very well when he broke his maiden on Aug. 30 beating a deceptively strong field while earning a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which would make him awfully tough to beat were he to repeat it here. He did regress last time, but I think he had a legitimate excuse. The main track on Sep. 30 was favoring inside paths, and he had to race 3-wide while making his move on the turn. Today’s rival Discreet Mission saved more ground and Suas still defeated him. He figures to sit a good stalking trip this time and I think he may just be slightly better than his rivals.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,5,8
Trifecta: 7 with 5,8 with 1,3,4,5,8
 

RACE 8: STOLEN PISTOL (#4)
I found this to be a very confusing race. Tombelaine might be the horse to beat as he drops back down in class after trying tougher company in his recent starts. He was sensational in his first start off the claim back in June, but he’s gone down hill since then. While he handles turf with some give to it, I don’t think he appreciated very soft ground in his starts in August or September. He got back on track last time at Laurel and did well to lose by less than a length to solid turf sprinter Dubini. If he repeats that effort here, he’s squarely in the mix. The Pace Projector isn’t predicting a fast pace, but I do see a fair amount of speed in this field. Battle Station, Dr. Shane, Blessed Halo, and Bold Thunder all prefer to be forwardly placed in the early going. I think any of them hooking up could help set things up for Stolen Pistol. I’m willing to excuse this 3-year-old’s dismal recent performance, since he was badly compromised by a yielding turf course that was favoring horses that rode the rail. He went 3-wide around the far turn and had no chance to make up ground with that kind of trip. All of his prior efforts during the summer would make him a major player, and I think his running style suits this race. Joe Sharp does excellent work with his turf sprinters (98 TimeformUS Trainer Rating) and Eric Cancel has been riding well lately.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,9,10
Trifecta: 4 with 2,10 with 2,5,8,9,10