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TimeformUS Race Analysis






Timeform US Analysis for September 7

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

TimeformUS Early Analysis for Racing at Sarataoga on Monday September 7th
Race 1:  #4 Captain Moss was impressive when winning his turf debut two starts back with a TFUS Speed Figure of 89.  Didn't back it up that well last time, but that was a tougher field, and Chris Englehart is much better second off the claim (96 rating).  #5 Coordinate had trouble behind Captain Moss in that May 30th race, then came back to easily defeat a weaker field here after a good trip.  
Selections:  4-5-7-6
Race 2:  #7 Frostie Anne prepped on dirt, and she had trouble in there after breaking slowly.  Half to turf stakes winner Freudie Anne (now 3 for 3 on grass) switches to the proper surface.  #10 B Three has turf on both sides of her pedigree (85 Breeding Rating for turf sprints).  Trainer has gotten her 2yos to perform up here this meet, and she gets a strong 88 rating with 2yo maidens.
Selections:  7-10-1-9
Race 3: #5 Two Putt tried a turf route off the short layoff last time.  Switches from turf to dirt (86 Trainer Rating for Rusty Arnold) and cuts back to sprint.  #11 Because I'm Happy made a promising debut with a late run behind Daredvil as a 2yo.  Drops in to face MCL company off the layoff.  Pletcher drops two in for the price for the first time, including #3 Shadow Jack, who earned TFUS Speed Figure of 75 first time out.  Stablemate #7 Bandwagon faced talented pair of Grand Bili and Tennessee in his debut back in February. 
Selections:  5-11-6-3
Race 4:  #3 Infinite Wisdom gave game chase to frontrunning Zennor, and was pinned along the inside through the stretch by #5 Tale of Fancy, before finishing gamely for 2nd in his first start back from a long layoff.  Earned new top Figure of 107 for that effort, and is nicely drawn inside once again.  Tale of Fancy showed speed from his outside post and gave game chase, as well.  Trainer having an excellent meet from limited starters.  #2b Farz has faced some tough company in first two career starts, and he will add lasix for the first time as he returns from the layoff (both moves earning trainer Kiaran McLaughlin perfect 100 ratings).  
Selections:  3-2b-5-8
Race 5:  Wide open dirt route for older $20k claimers drew a big field.  #3 Golden Itiz is 3 for 5 over this trip, and he goes first off the claim for Gary Gullo, who gets a Trainer Rating of 95 with this kind of time between races.  #8 Days Ride is a re-claim by Michael Dubb  and attracts Castellano.  #6 Unstoppable U drops in class for third start back from a layoff.  Has back form to be tough in here, and has some speed.  #4 Bemata has held good form for Eddie Barker all year, and he drops a bit for this.  
Selections:  3-8-6-4
Race 6:  #8 Majestic Smile is out of the Grade 2 winning turf dam Silver Comic, and her trainer does well with 2yos debuting in turf routes (87 rating).  #3 Wedding Dress ran well before settling for second best first time out.  Experience counts.  Chad Brown sends two for debut, both of them obvious dangers.  #1 Theory of Change is a half to the stakes-quality America America, while #5 Winged Fury is out of the multiple Grade 1-winning turf mare Fiji.  
Selections:  8-3-1-5
Race 7:  #4 Uncle Sigh is the horse to beat following up on solid reappearance with a TFUS Speed Figure of 98.  We'll try to beat him with #8 Tiz Time to Shine.  3yo needs to improve, but he's lightly raced, and Chad Brown has been almost unbeatable with dirt turnbacks (perfect 100 rating route to sprint).  Despite having plenty of pedigree for turf, #2 Rectify never appeared comfortable over that surface last time.  Back to dirt, and he's ok.  
Selections:  8-4-2-9
Race 8:  #1 Lovely Moon made a promising debut while closing into a slow pace (note Pace Figures/fractions color-coded blue), before taking a field wire to wire in her 2yo finale.  Started back in a race that fell to closers with a faster early and slower late race shape, and she was forced to race forward from a tough outside post.  #9 Ortiga raced on well for 4th after a slow beginning in her stateside debut.  #8 Fila Primera was ok as a 2yo, and she may have needed her first start back.  Blinkers on for this.
Selections:  1-9-8-2
Race 9:  #1 Ironicus figures tough to down in the Bernard Baruch after putting his impressive late kick on display in the Fourstardave here 23 days ago.  Was unlucky not to pull a trip there, but that will continue to be his achilles heel, as he lacks for early speed.  The TimeformUS Pace Projector favors neither frontrunners nor closers but places him far behind in the early stages.  We could go either way on #3 Vyjack, who has taken to turf just fine since switched over recently by Bill Mott.  His debut on this surface was a legitimately good effort in a paceless race, but we did not care for his last race, though he did pair up his 118 TFUS Speed Figure.  #7 All Included steps up again following game win after a wide trip here last time.  Has the speed to land a good position early.  
Selections:  1-3-7-4
Race 10:  #6 Ralis ships in from California as the most experienced horse in the Grade 1 Hopeful field.  Impressive in his maiden win back in June, he was stuck on a wide chase in the Summer Juvenile Championship two back, before finishing a clear 2nd with a new top TFUS Speed Figure of 95 last time.  #1 Magna Light was clearly best, but DQ'd for interference in the Grade 3 Sanford earlier in the meet.  Tough post on the rail.  #4 Set the Trappe is a maiden stepping into a Grade 1, but he may be the horse to beat based on TFUS Speed Figure of 106 earned on debut.  He did very well to be 2nd best in that race after contesting a fast pace (note Pace Figures/fractions color-coded red) over a closer-friendly track (note Race Rating Box shaded blue) on debut.  Trainer gets strong 99 rating with second-time starters.  
Selections:  6-1-4-8
Race 11:  #13 Tiztalented finally worked a clean trip, and she appeared to relish the distance when burying maidens here last time with a figure of 104.  Streaking Barclay Tagg sends two, including #7 Pure of Spirit, who has not started since win going shorter at Belmont back in June.  She was heavily favored to win that race, but she was also much the best after a not-so-easy trip.  His other runner, #2 Kitzys Rocket, rolled to an easy win over Tiztalented here opening weekend, but Tiztalented had plenty of trouble in that race, while Kitzys Rocket sat a perfect trip.  
Selections:  13-7-2-5

TimeformUS Analysis for September 5

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  #7 Wynhurst is the horse to beat as the best speed off the claim by Rudy (100 rating off the claim), but his last race has to be a concern.  #6 Howaboutwe lost all chance at the start last time, but still managed to put in a run through the stretch.  


Selections:  6-7-1/1a-2


Race 2:  #8 Donegal Moon appeared to get in a prep sprinting on dirt, as he couldn't keep up early, but leveled off with a good run through the stretch.  Has significant pedigree to move up on turf.  #9 Italian Charm is by turf champion Gio Ponti and out of Voodoo Dancer, who combined to win 22 races on grass, including 9 Grade 1s, with over $5 million in earnings.  Trainer handled both of those horses, and he gets a strong 94 rating debuting in turf routes.  #1 Highland Sky is from a potent female family of turf runners, and she was an effective runner herself.  Trainer having a strong meet here from limited starters.  


Selections:  8-9-1-6


Race 3:  #4 Mrs. Hudson made an impressive debut over this distance back in April, and she ran into a sharp front-running winner in her 2nd start.  All potential right now for top connections.  #1 Excuse My French made a nice appearance pre-race, then went out and wired a field of maidens on a fast pace (note Pace Figures/fractions color-coded red) on debut with a TFUS Speed Figure of 95.  Has the rail again.  


Selections:  4-1-2-6


Race 4:  #3 Greenpointcrusader raced greenly while taking dirt first time out, but he finished gamely once clear in the stretch to fall just short of Saratoga Mischief, who returned to run 2nd in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special.  Experience gives him a big edge over this distance.  #9 Revved Up did no running in turf route debut, but he is bred for dirt, and may have been entered there just to avoid the shorter sprints that have prevailed around here for 2yos.


Selections:  3-9-4-12


Race 5:  #4 Travel True took over off a fast pace to win his debut going short, and he was in against much better horses when giving way in turf debut last time.  #9 Sheldon has disappointed so far this year, but he has been kept to longer distances, and we are wondering if he won't appreciate going shorter this time.  Needs to get back to form.  #1 Are We Not Men has competitive form, and he will add lasix for the first time as he goes off the claim for Phil Serpe (100 rating off the claim).  


Selections:  4-9-1-8


Race 6:  #5 West Village made an impressive turf debut on Derby Day despite lugging in through the stretch, and he had no chance, and was not ridden, in Lamplighter Stakes that was dominated in wire-to-wire fashion.  May not have an easy time with #1 Tale of Life, but he'll be a price.  Tale of Life is lightly raced from a top Flaxman family (2nd dam is the great Miesque), and he had a trip behind eventual Guineas runnerup New Bay two starts back. Lasix on for US debut.


Selections:  5-1-7-4


Race 7:  #12 Set the Trappe did very well to be 2nd best after contesting a fast pace (note Pace Figures/fractions color-coded red) over a closer-friendly track (note Race Rating Box shaded blue) on debut.  Trainer gets strong 99 rating with second-time starters.  #1 Rafting debuted going long on grass.  Cuts back switching to dirt for second start with pedigree to handle the changes.  


Selections:  12-1-3-5


Race 8:  All graded stakes Pick 3 begins with the Saranac, for 3yo turfers over 9 furlongs.  ML favorite and horse to beat is #3 Takeover Target.  Recent winner of the Grade 2 Hall of Fame here last month, he has never taken a backward step on TFUS Speed Figures following an impressive debut (97-102-107-111-114), and he has a handy running style.  Stablemate #4 Winter Springs made his stateside debut in the Hall of Fame.  He was left with a lot to do in the stretch after settling last early, and finished up well.  #5 Go Around steps up in class following clear-cut win after a perfect trip here on August 1st.  Potential is there, and the other speed in the race should allow him to settle early.


Selections:  5-3-4-7


Race 9:  Grade 1 Spinaway for 2yo fillies has only six, all of them eligible to an entry-level allowance race.  #1 Tap to It didn't get a figure, but she was impressive in overcoming trouble in a couple of different spots to close down maidens first time out.  Has to overcome rail draw, but it's a short field.  #2 Rachel's Valentina didn't have speed, but came wide and kicked away with a good finish first time out.  TFUS Speed Figure of 99 earned for that effort tops the field.  #5 Constellation brought a big ticket as a 2yo in training, and she ran a big one first time out to dust a big field with a figure of 97.  #6 Banree is the most experienced, though her races are well-spaced.  Had trouble at the start when taking on colts on the Tremont two back, and she was dead game after a tough wide trip in the Schuylerville here opening day.


Selections:  1-6-5-2


Race 10:  Loaded Grade 1 Woodward for older horses does not lack for early speed, though that may not matter with #2 Liam's Map making first start out of tremendous effort in the Whitney last month.  Whether he can repeat that effort 4 weeks later is the question of the race.  If he does (he earned a TFUS Speed Figure of 130), they're running for 2nd behind him.  Pletcher is running four here, including Liam's Map, but it is the Jimmy Jerkens pair of #1 Wicked Strong and #7 Effinex who may prove to be the biggest late threats.  Wicked Strong hasn't managed to improve enough for us as a 4yo, though he was close to that strong pace in the Whitney.   Effinex has been in raging form this year; aside from bolting in the Brooklyn, he has hung up TFUS Speed Figures of 125-126-125 in winning his three other starts.


Selections:  2-1-7-8


Race 11:  #4 Ceisteach has paired up TFUS Speed Figures of 115 since stretched out for last two starts.  Versatile running style allows her to avoid being compromised by dynamics.  #3 Eastern Belle and #8 Evidently were both compromised behind front-running #6 Goldy Espony last time.  


Selections:  4-8-3-9


Race 12:  #1 Yankee Dealer has won all three starts vs. non-stakes company since switched back to turf this year, and he overcame a slow pace to get it done last time (note Pace Figures/fractions color-coded blue).  #12 Hollywood Idol has tough post to overcome, and it's not as if there is no other speed in here, but he has been a different horse since switched to turf. He was dead-game through the stretch after overtaking a fast pace. 


Selections:  1-12-5-2





TimeformUS Analysis for September 4

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  #7 Path Dependent put up 97 TFUS Speed Figure with game finish off the layoff after winding up last early.  #4 Take Cover cuts back after getting wired over a mile here last month.  Turf debut sprinting was a fine effort, though she had her chance in there, and it was a race that saw four of them hit the wire together.  #3 Honorable Daniel gets strong Breeding Rating of 95 for turf sprints.  Goes for trainer having an excellent meet here.  #5 Bow Tie Boss has disappointed while running well enough in some tough spots on the main track.  Has enough turf pedigree (89 Breeding Rating), but surface switch may not be a positive sign for him.

Selections:  7-4-3-1


Race 2:  #5 Noble Hustle returns from a short break as an apparent new gelding.  Last seen cutting the pace going long on grass, he drops to lowest level yet while cutting back in distance, and his last dirt start resulted in runnerup finish behind a much better horse.  #7 Magical Connection faces MCL company for the first time on dirt after failing to fire on grass up here early in the meet.  Last dirt start came vs. recent King's Bishop runnerup Limousine Liberal.  #9 Green Gold has speed from the outside as he makes his 3yo debut.  Faced a good field on debut, then caught a sloppy track in second start, and trainer gets a perfect 100 rating with the MSW to MCL drop.

Selections:  5-7-9-6


Race 3:  Interesting matchup between pair of talented fillies in #1 Ack Naughty and #3 Capriana here.  Capriana has run the faster races to this point, and she will be forwardly placed, while late-running Ack Naughty exits impressive win over weaker with new top TFUS Speed Figure of 99.

Selections:  3-1-8-5


Race 4:  $100k Evan Shipman for NY-breds features the return of #6 Zivo.  Runnerup in last year's Jockey Club Gold Cup, he is too good for these horses with anything approaching his best race.  #3 Gridley Here has spent most of the year facing tougher, open-company foes.  He was badly compromised by the slow pace (note Pace Figures/fractions color-coded blue) when behind #4 Saratoga Snacks and #1 Empire Dreams in the Saginaw two starts back.  Empire Dreams was also compromised by the pace in that spot, and was likely best despite settling for 2nd at the end.

Selections:  6-3-1-4


Race 5:  #4 Bet the Power is the one to beat following 106 TFUS Speed Figure win here earlier in the meet.  Trainer gets 95 rating off the claim, but this one does return for half the price he was claimed for out of that winning effort.  #9 Star of New York was given some time following game runnerup finish at Belmont last time.  Trainer has had him back in form.  #7 Noble Doss makes first start off the claim for Bruce Levine (88 rating).  Like him turning back in distance for this.

Selections:  9-4-7-8


Race 6:  Forget the race rained off the turf last time, #2 Comet Sixty Two earned TFUS Speed Figure of 100 when coming up just short in turf sprint two starts back, and a 94 for her win in HAW turf sprint prior to that.  Goes first off the claim for top connections.  #8 April Rose had her debut rained off to the main track just 14 days ago, and she just cruised around there with easy speed to demolish $40k MCLs.  Back quick.  #10 Benny's Bombshell returned from long layoff and had a good finish to cut down the margin of favored winner late.  Trainer gets strong 96 rating second off the layoff.

Selections:  2-8-10-1


Race 7:  #11 Mind Your Biscuits took a shuffle through the turn then came with a good finish to be clear 2nd in debut.  #5 Brett the Jet raced a bit greenly and wide when behind Mind Your Biscuits on debut.  Adds blinkers for second start, and Castellano sticks.  Firster #2 Awesome Gent is a half to the good sprinter Comedero, and debuts for Pletcher.  

Selections:  11-5-12-2


Race 8:  #11 Daisy a Day clipped heels early, winding up at the back of the field, then finished up gamely in race that was taken wire to wire by the longshot Kelly's Prize here opening day.  Needs a trip from her outside post.  #12 Funky Munky Fever also exits that 5th race from opening day, and she was also trying to close.  Like Daisy a Day, she moves outside for this.  #8 Willow U has been in good form for trainer who has been heating up lately, and she has the speed to be in the game from the start. 

Selections:  11-12-8-1


Race 9:  #9 Iroquois Girl had a trip when behind the streaking #7 Spectacular Me last time, but she finished gamely in what was her first start back from an extended layoff.  Has some speed at her disposal, assuming a fair start this time.  #8 Hooligan earned new career top TFUS Speed Figure of 111 last time out.  Lightly raced 3yo improving at the right time.

Selections:  9-7-8-2


Race 10:  #7 Heavenly Sun was forced in and clipped heels early before getting outrun by better horses last time.  TFUS Speed Figure of 91 earned in first start back off the layoff is the top number in the field, and he will appreciate this class drop.  #9 Adirondack Posse also drops after failing to get involved behind Space Oddity last time.  Makes second start off the layoff for trainer having a good meet up here.  

Selections:  7-9-4-8






TimeformUS Race Analysis for Thursday September 3

TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

Race 1:  Steeplechase
Race 2:  #4 Zabaione was wide every step of the way over this trip last time, but continued to give game chase to One Sided and Bellamy Way, who would return to finish 2nd and 3rd in the Albany last Friday.  #5 Battle of Evermore had good setups in pair of stakes vs. NY-breds after shipping east, and picked up placings with TFUS Speed Figures of 96 and 101.  Trainer gets strong 98 rating switching from turf to dirt.
Selections:  4-5-3-7
Race 3:  #4 Saluda ran a big race while contesting a fast pace (note Pace Figures/fractions color-coded red) on a quick turnaround two starts back, in a race that was ultimately won last to first.  Trainer has struggled here, but gets a solid rating of 93 dropping 50% or more.  #1 She's Marvy is the speed from the rail, and makes her first start off the claim for Gary Gullo.  #6 Annie Walker drops following turn-back try vs. tougher over a speed-favoring track (note Race Rating Box shaded red).  Owns competitive figures, but had a perfect trip and was unable to factor from behind that fast pace that Saluda was involved in back in June.
Selections:  4-1-6-5
Race 4:  #4 Thrilled ran to her big pedigree and finished gamely to close down both #1 Harmonize and #5 Ava's Kitten from behind a slow pace (note Pace Figures/fractions color-coded blue) earlier in the meet.  #2 Finn's Girl also rallied into a slow pace on debut, and she drew clear impressively in the stretch while still looking a bit green.  Trainer does well with last-out maiden winners (96 rating).  Ava's Kitten went favored in the MSW event when behind Thrilled and Harmonize.  Full sister to the multiple Grade 1-winning turfer Real Solution is a big threat to step forward with that experience under her belt.
Selections:  4-2-5-1
Race 5:  Tough MCL sprint for NY-breds kicks off the Pick 6.  #1 Splash of Sass's lone starts on the main track came in first two of her career, and they were against much better horses.  Will appreciate this class relief switching back from turf.  #8 She's Gifted flashed speed and gave way when challenged in lone start so far, which came vs. better horses as a 2yo.  Drops for first start back for trainer getting perfect 100 rating MSW to MCL.  
Selections:  1-8-4-10
Race 6:  #5 Rappel was rated back and then ridden into a traffic jam in the stretch first time out.  Appeared to have plenty of run there, and may be tough here with that experience behind him.  #4 Armando Big is one of several interesting firsters in this field.  By City Zip, he gets a solid Breeding Rating of 88 for turf sprints, and debuts for trainer who has his first-time starters ready to go (95 rating).  #2 Light the Night is out of a dam who was a stakes winner on turf, and #3 Handsome Hank debuts for Lisa Lewis, who also has her first-time starters ready.
Selections:  5-4-3-2
Race 7:  #4 Day Six was strongly rated back to last and then jammed up in traffic as he tried to rally last time.  Goes off the claim for connections getting surprising results, and is better than his last makes him look.  #6 Finn's Quest chased down a solid pace to make the lead, but had nothing left late in race that went to closers.  
Selections:  4-6-7-9
Race 8:  Maybe it was the wet track, but #1 Noble Cornerstone failed to come through with his typical strong finish in the Morrissey last time.  Had made a promising 4yo debut prior to that with a new top figure of 117.  Would prefer his entrymate to scratch.  #4 Clearly Now may simply be in the right spot as he steps back from stakes company for the first time in almost 3 years.  Supposed to drown these with his good race; we'll see if he brings it.  #2 John's Island got going too late when closing by Noble Cornerstone to finish 2nd in the Morrissey.  Reliable closer just needs some pace.  
Selections:  1-4-2-5
Race 9:  Several of these exit the 7th race from August 12 behind Rumble Doll, with #2 All Mine Tonight finishing best of those in her first start back from the layoff.  Pace Projector indicates that #7 Hot Squeeze will be tough with an early advantage, and she has done well here in the past for trainer who was heating up last week.  #3 Bella Kateri worked her way clear of traffic and fired a good one to close down a clear leader when cut back to this distance last time.  
Selections:  3-7-10-2
Race 10:  #10 Ten Penny Princess pulled a perfect trip to make a clear stretch lead before getting gunned down by a Chad Brown class-dropper.  Tough with repeat of that one.  #7 Flying K C finished well once clear of traffic in the stretch to just get up for 2nd last time.  Rounding back to form following long layoff.  
Selections:  10-7-12-1

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