PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 2:   3 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 3:   6 - 4 - 8 - 2
Race 4:   1 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 5:   2 - 3 - 8 - 1
Race 6:   6 - 3 - 9 - 1
Race 7:   6 - 9 - 4 - 7
Race 8:   3 - 10 - 7 - 2
Race 9:   9 - 2 - 7 - 4
Race 10:   3 - 10 - 5 - 6

PLAYS

RACE 2: MADISON’S LUNA (#3)
Yodel E. A. Who is the horse to beat as he drops down in class into this open claimer. He’s faced significantly better company in his recent starts at the optional claiming and graded stakes level. However, he didn’t perform particularly well in either of those races, so he does need to turn his form around against this softer field. Brittany Russell is adding blinkers today, likely in hopes of getting him closer to the early pace. He’s a horse who used to possess more tactical speed, and his propensity to get outrun early in his races has coincided with his drop off in form. I’m using him, but there are some intriguing alternative options in this small field. I’m most interested in the pair from Kentucky, Rocking the Boat and Madison’s Luna. Rocking the Boat figures to take more money here as he makes his second start off the claim for Robertino Diodoro. I thought he got a great trip last time stalking the pace and really had no excuse, other than the fact he was second best. That was not the case for Madison’s Luna, who was towards the back of the pack early behind a pace that was fairly moderate for six furlongs at Churchill. He raced willingly around the far turn but couldn’t find a clear path to advance towards the leaders until well into the stretch. He was finishing best of all once he finally got into the clear and ran a better race than Rocking the Boat. Now he’s making his second start off the layoff for hot trainer Phil Bauer, and I’m hopeful that he’s finally getting back to the top races he was once capable of producing at the start of his career.

Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 2,4,6

RACE 3: STEP DANCER (#6)
This New York Stallion Series Cab Calloway division boils down to a rematch of the Spectacular Bid division in this series run last month at Belmont. That event was held at 7 furlongs and it worked to the strengths of Ocala Dream, who has displayed vastly improved tactical speed in his recent outings. He always traveled well in that sprint contest, and got the jump on his main rivals through the lane. The horse who seemed to struggle most with the shorter trip last time was Step Dancer, who was outrun in the early stages. Dylan Davis did everything he could to get him into a proper position coming to the quarter pole, but the colt just didn’t possess the necessary turn of foot. He finally hit his best stride in the last furlong and was closing stoutly, but was too late to get to the winner. This time there is once again some pace signed on with the likes of Dreamer’s Disease and Devious Mo in the field, so I’m not too concerned about Step Dancer’s late-running style. The two-turn mile distance figures to suit him better, and I think he can turn the tables on his main rival. I also wouldn’t totally discount the chances of Spectacular Bid division third-place finisher Barrage. This maiden made a decent move to challenge the winner mid-stretch before flattening out. He has a right to move forward as he makes his first start for Danny Gargan. However, he was 52-1 last time and he’s going to be about a tenth of that price here.

Win: 6
Trifecta: 6 with 4,8 with 2,4,8

RACE 10: CARIBBEAN GOLD (#3)
Prayer Book figures to attract support as he makes his first start for a tag after a series of maiden special weight attempts. Pletcher is 4 for 16 (25%, $1.96 ROI) first time for a tag with maidens in turf routes at Saratoga, so he can get these types to win. My issue with this horse is that he just appears to want more ground than the 1 1/16 miles he gets to work with here. He’s a plodding type who gradually works his way into his races, and there doesn’t appear to be a ton of pace signed on here. Centurion will attract some support after picking up checks in similar spots throughout the Belmont meet. However, he was arguably supposed to win last time when he got to the lead in the stretch and just couldn’t withstand some late pressure. I’m more interested in a runner who finished behind him in that June 13 affair. Caribbean Gold has apparently been a little difficult for his connections to figure out, as they’ve raced him over a variety of distances. They kept sprinting him when he was with his prior trainer, and they tried cutting back against last time 7 furlongs. While that fifth-place result looks disappointing at first glance, that race featured a strong early pace that he was pressing, and was dominated by runners who came from farther off the pace. I like him stretching back out for Maker, especially now that he lands in a spot where he figures to control the pace on the front end. Perhaps racing as a new gelding will also make a difference. I’d primarily use him with Bunker Hill, who is getting significant class relief after returning from a layoff in an incredibly tough maiden special weight event last time.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,6,10