by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 2 - 4 - 6 - 7
Race 2: 2 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 3: 1 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 4: 2 - 6 - 8 - 7
Race 5: 10 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 6: 4 - 1 - 7 - 8
Race 7: 2 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 8: 5 - 6 - 9 - 7
Race 9: 1 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 10: 6 - 7 - 10 - 2
RACE 2: RED CURLS (#2)
Some may be tempted to just concede this race to likely favorite Amazing Audrey, but I’m not quite convinced. If I knew she was going to run back to her good efforts from earlier this year, I would say that she’s basically a cinch in this spot, but her most recent race concerns me. She came under a ride a long way out in that June 21 race despite the fact that they weren’t going very fast, and she had no response late. I never like when these Pletcher maidens start to head in the wrong direction. Over the past five years, he is just 2 for 15 with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company on turf at Saratoga. The best alternative that I can find is Red Curls. I’ve been waiting to bet this filly on the drop down to the maiden claiming ranks, since this is the class relief that she needs. When you dig through her form, it’s apparent that her grass speed figures stack up very favorably with the other contenders, aside from Amazing Audrey. Red Curls didn’t get great trips in either of her turf races at Tampa Bay Downs over the winter, and Roy Lerman knows how to point for this meet.
RACE 3: QUICK RELEASE (#1)
It’s difficult to know where the center of this race is, as you can make valid cases for just about any of the six competitors. You Know Too and Treble come in from out of town and figure to attract support. You Know Too has arguably kept the best company, and she’s an interesting turnback given how well she ran sprinting early in her career. I’m using her. Treble has run some of the fastest speed figures in this field, and she even earned a Grade 3 placing two back. However, you have to be somewhat concerned about her last race, where she completely fell apart at Gulfstream Park. I think it’s worth noting that she was a shipper that day, and she’s shipping out of Kentucky for this race. Luz Mimi has consistently run well for Jeremiah Englehart, but she may be pace-compromised in this spot. I’m going to try to get Quick Release to wire this field from the rail. There just is not that much early speed in this race, and the Pace Projector is predicting that Quick Release can be well clear in the early going in a situation favoring the front-runner. I know that others appear to be classier, but this filly has really improved in recent starts. While she finished last of five last time, I thought she didn’t have the easiest trip, dueling inside through fast fractions over a wet racetrack. Trainer Mike Dini has quietly been doing very well with the horses he has brought to NYRA this year. Over the past 90 days on this circuit, he is 3 for 15 (20 percent, $7.70 ROI), and remarkably, 11 of those runners finished in the money despite most of them being longshots.
RACE 4: LONG GRAY LINE (#2)
We’ll see who ends up favored in this spot, but you would imagine that Malibu Strings will take some money. I want no part of this horse at a short price. He beat a weak Florida field in slow time when he won his maiden in April, and I think he’s been exposed as an inferior runner in recent starts. Todd Pletcher has a knack for getting horses like this to show up at Saratoga, but I think he’s in too tough here. I strongly prefer Long Gray Line, the other runner who is supposed to attract support. This Al Stall trainee has run some of the fastest dirt speed figures in this field, and he’s done so against tougher company. I thought he ran well to win his maiden back in April, as he beat Gray Nile, who would actually be a strong favorite in this race given his subsequent efforts. From there, they just got a bit too ambitious, as he was in over his head against starter-allowance foes and $50,000 claimers. The winner of his race two back, Uno Mas Modelo, has turned into a very nice horse, winning a tough allowance race at this meet. Then last time, I thought he was hindered by a wide trip, as he got spun out into the 5-path heading around the far turn. He seems to be a little unfocused in his races, so blinkers may really help this horse. He drew a great inside post position for this distance and appears to be placed to win. The other horses that I would throw in at prices are Trustworthy, who can handle the distance and gets some needed class relief, and Shamsaan, who also wants every bit of this 9-furlong trip.
RACE 6: LEAP TO GLORY (#4)
This is one of the trickiest races on the card, as every participant has the credentials to win at this level, and the scratch of Elios Milos doesn't make it any easier. One horse I’m not picking on top but who I want to use is Altesino. This horse doesn’t really have a winning profile, but he seems like one who could outrun his odds. He was compromised by pace and trips in all three of his starts at Aqueduct this year, and the H. James Bond barn knows how to get a horse ready for this meet. However, he’s another runner who may have issues with the expected pace scenario again here. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the front-runner, and that’s the main reason I’m taking a shot with Leap to Glory. I know that he needs to improve again to win this race, but I thought his maiden score was visually impressive. He broke like a rocket and was in cruise control for the majority of that performance. His main pace rival out of that race came back to win recently with a vastly improved speed figure. Furthermore, Charlton Baker has good numbers off maiden wins in dirt sprints at NYRA, as he is 5 for 22 (23 percent, $4.68 ROI) over the past five years.
RACE 7: LA MANTA GRIS (#2)
At first glance, this looks like a two-horse race between Empressof the Nile and Violet Blue. The former figures to go off as the favorite as she drops out of graded stakes company into this more realistic spot. She ran a fantastic race over this course last summer to break her maiden, and she’s been placed over her head in more than a few spots since then. I think she’s probably the most talented runner in this race, but she doesn’t always produce her top effort, so I’m somewhat hesitant to take her as the public choice. Violet Blue hinted that she had returned as an improved 4-year-old when she won in her first start back off the layoff in June at Belmont. I can see how some might want to give her an excuse for her effort in the River Memories last time, since she was 3-wide around both turns, I didn’t love that race overall and I think Empressof the Nile has proven that she’s the classier filly. I’m using both, but the runner that interests me most at a price is La Manta Gris. I’ve been a fan of this filly ever since her win over this course and distance last year. I feel that, watching her races during the intervening year, she’s rarely gotten ideal trips in her races. Most recently, I thought she moved off cover too soon when unwisely going up to challenge the leader on the backstretch of the Keertana. Then last time, she just was never put in a position to be competitive as her rider basically gave up at the eight pole. I like this switch to Jose Lezcano, and I think she’s getting some subtle class relief for this return to Saratoga.
RACE 8: FRONT ROW DEBBIE (#5)
This race is one of the trickier ones on the card. Theaterintheround is the kind of favorite that I’m rarely going to pick on top, but I fully acknowledge that she is one you have to use. My main issue with her is that she’s not actually getting any class relief despite dropping in for a tag for this first time. I’m not convinced that this race came up any softer than her most recent start against New York-bred allowance company. Chad Brown wins with these types, but I prefer others. She Doesn’t Mind makes sense. She was facing much tougher company when racing out of Chad Brown’s barn in 2016, and she just hasn’t returned to that form under Graham Motion’s care this year. Now she goes out for Jorge Abreu, and is taking a logical drop in class. I’m using her, but the horse that interests me most is Front Row Debbie for Dale Romans. Going back to this winter at Gulfstream, this mare was running races that would make her very competitive against this bunch. I liked the way she finished when she broke her maiden back in February, and I think you can make the argument that she’s just been placed a bit too ambitiously in most of her starts since then. That starter allowance in March was a very tough race for that level, and then she was never going to be competitive against stakes filly Creative Thinking going 12 furlongs at Keeneland. I thought she had an excuse two back at Churchill Downs when she got stopped in traffic at the to top of the stretch, and she was again overmatched last time. I think she’s finally dropping to the right level, and the Pace Projector is predicting that she will get a fast pace to close into.