by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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On every Friday through Sunday at the Saratoga meet, get exclusive access to betting tickets for David Aragona’s Top Plays, including multi-race bet constructions and other exotic tickets. Also get exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more
Race 1: 6 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 2: 10 - 1 - 7 - 4
Race 3: 3 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 4: 4 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 5: 8 - 2 - 9 - 1
Race 6: 1 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 7: 2 - 10 - 5 - 7
Race 8: 1 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 9: 7 - 8 - 10 - 3
Race 10: 3 - 6 - 4 - 9
RACE 3: KRISTOFFERSON (#3)
The horse to beat in this race is Alaskan Prince, who makes his second start for the George Weaver barn after a solid try last month at Belmont Park. Cutting back to this 5 1/2-furlong distance probably will be to his liking since he ran well going as short as five furlongs in Kentucky. However, he’s not a horse who wins very often, and he appears to hang in the late stages on some occasions. Lone Trader is the other logical one to consider, but he’s going to need some help up front as a late closer who may prefer the slightly longer sprint distances typically run at Belmont Park. I’m going in a different direction with Kristofferson. This horse has had an interesting career, starting out at Northlands Park and Hastings in Canada. Last time, transferred into Miguel Vera’s barn, he finally tried turf for the first time at Laurel. It’s a wonder that it took him so long to get this surface given his pedigree. He’s by turf influence Rock Hard Ten, and his dam is a half-sister to three Group 1 winners on turf in Europe. This horse didn’t earn a very high speed figure last time, but he ran well within the context of the race, chasing a pace that fell apart while hanging on best of those who were up front early. The winner of that race is a capable turf sprinter who would undoubtedly be favored in this spot.
RACE 6: TERRY O GERI (#1)
Despite having drawn just six horses, this is a very interesting race. The horse to beat is probably Benevolence, but he’s starting to run out of chances as he continues to rack up runner-up finishes. He got a strong pace to close into last time and could not capitalize on it. I actually thought that both Cerretalto and Gaming ran better races than him on that occasion since they were contesting the quick early pace. Gaming probably put in the best effort of all, but it remains to be seen if he can repeat that performance in his second start off the layoff since he had never run quite that well before. I’ll use him, but the horse I want to bet here is Terry O Geri. He’s a late runner like Benevolence, but he has more upside than that foe. I thought he ran deceptively well last time, making a wide move into contention after getting shuffled back around the far turn. If you throw out his turf experiment and poor race in the mud, he’s actually been in decent form.
RACE 7: MR. MASSENA (#2)
I respect the class droppers in this race, but I primarily want to use them underneath. Uncle Chester has tallied eight second- and third-place finishes from 12 starts on turf. Bartleby has only tried turf twice, but he’s not the strongest finisher and is often losing ground at the end of his route races. Wondermeister ran well in his last turf start, coming with a late rush after altering course past midstretch. However, I wonder if there will be enough pace for him to close into. Given the general lack of confirmed front-runners in this field, I’m taking a shot with Mr. Massena. He ran fine in his turf debut at Aqueduct while working out a two- to three-wide trip. His next turf start at Belmont looks disappointing, but he actually broke a length behind the field on that occasion and was out of position throughout in a race where few runners made up significant ground. His recent performance on dirt is a step in the right direction, and Jose Lezcano should have him up close from this inside post position.
RACE 8: LOOSE ON THE TOWN (#1)
The horse to beat is Stallwalkin’ Dude, but you have to be a little concerned about his most recent start. Seven furlongs is a bit far for him, but he was still supposed to show more of a late kick, as he barely got by a tiring Green Gratto to finish fourth. He may very well win his third Tale of the Cat in a row, but he’s not going to be much of a price, and I don’t fully trust him this time. I respect Weekend Hideaway, but I don’t like that he missed a start two weeks ago. I actually think this race is pretty wide-open, and the horse who interests me most is Loose on the Town. I know that his fastest speed figures have come on turf, but I think there’s a chance that he’s just improved overall now as a 5-year-old. His most recent outing at Parx is not a true representation of his dirt ability since he stumbled badly at the start and was unwisely rated thereafter in a race that featured a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs). I like that Brian Lynch is sticking with this surface as he moves up in class, and he should work out a good trip pressing the pace set by Chief Lion. At a big price, I’ll also throw in Candid Desire underneath, as he gets back on a fast track. His recent performances are better than they seem, but I acknowledge that he will need a lot to go his way in a field this deep.
RACE 10: MADAME BARBARIAN (#3)
Cashless Society is one of these horses that is going to take money merely for the fact that she’s trained by Chad Brown. Sure, she can win this race, but she doesn’t actually have much of an edge on this field. She beat a suspect group of maidens when winning her debut at Gulfstream, and then was no match for a mediocre group at Monmouth last time out. She needs this drop in class, but she’s not the kind of horse I want to bet as a short-priced favorite. Stormy Alexis is probably the horse to beat, but she’s racked up 8 second-place finishes in her 13 tries on turf, with just one win to her credit. Given the obvious issues with these two likely choices in the wagering, I want to get a little creative here. My top selection is Madame Barbarian. I know that she looks improbable at first glance, but she has subtly improved in recent starts ever since being switched to the barn of Richard Metivier. She was third behind two decent runners at Suffolk Downs two back, and then got an impossible wide trip against a tougher group of $25,000 maidens last time. She possesses the tactical speed to work out a ground-saving trip in midpack, and she figures to offer a ton of value. Eric Cancel has been making the most of his opportunities in recent weeks.