PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 2:   5 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 3:   4 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 4:   10 - 4 - 6 - 8
Race 5:   5 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 6:   1 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 7:   2 - 8 - 5 - 10
Race 8:   7 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 9:   5 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 10:   4 - 6 - 7 - 8

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: DOLCE SERA (#5)

#2 Run Up the Score could go favored here as she drops in for a tag for the first time in her career. The class relief figures to suit her, but I’m a little concerned about the distance of this race. She was attending an honest pace last time, but really shortened stride in the late stages over that sloppy track. She had previously handled wet going, so I’m not convinced that it was the surface that explains her regression last time. She can obviously given the soft nature of this field, but I preferred better prices. #4 Honeycomb also drops out of maiden special weight company, but she’s a little hard to trust off her recent efforts. Getting back to dirt may suit her if she can run back to her sloppy track debut, but her other dirt race was awful. #6 Regina may appreciate the switch back to dirt as well, but I’m a little skeptical of her overall quality. My top pick is #5 Dolce Sera. She’s another dropping in for a tag for the first time in her career, but she figures to get dismissed at a generous price given the low-profile connections. She’s run just as well as a few other shorter prices in here, but just lacks the consistency of a few of her rivals. Her last effort at Belmont isn’t as bad as it seems, as she got a somewhat tentative ride through the early stages but was staying on decently behind a runaway winner. I’m hoping this time Eric Cancel can get her a bit more involved early, as he did back on May 13 when she almost pulled off an upset.

WIN: #5 Dolce Sera, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 3: MY BOY TATE (#4)

The last 3 starts against NY-breds for #6 Ny Traffic have all looked pretty similar, resulting in blowout victories with impressive speed figures. Perhaps the result will be the same once again, but he’s stepping up to face the toughest field of state-breds that he's ever encountered. He is drawn well in the outside post, especially considering that he's effective from a stalking position. However, he’s coming off a lackluster effort just 13 days ago in the Vanderbilt. He obviously was never beating Jackie’s Warrior, but many expecting him to be second that day. How he shows up here as the high weight and figures to be a very short price. Both speeds drawn to his inside can potentially prove dangerous. #1 Saint Selby has been in great form in recent starts for Rob Atras. #2 Wudda U Think Now posted some impressive speed figures over the winter, but he’s a little harder to trust off his lackluster return at Parx, especially with the Rudy Rodriguez barn in such a slump. I’m trying to beat these runners with #4 My Boy Tate. The venerable gelding is trying to prove that he’s still got it at the age of 8. He’s coming in off a layoff following a disappointing performance when stretched out to a mile at Aqueduct in March. That’s always been a little far for him, so the turnback should help. He’s supposed to get some pace to close into, and ran well in this race off a similar layoff last year. I am a little concerned that he’s lost a step since his peak, but he figures to be a decent price this time and should get pace up front.

WIN: #4 My Boy Tate, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 4: QUIET TYPE (#10)

I didn’t want to default to the favorites in this wide open maiden claimer. It appears that there is plenty of early speed in this field, so I’m a little skeptical of morning line favorite #6 Queen of Lies getting the distance. She’s exiting the best races and arguably comes in with superior form, but she’s just a little untrustworthy on the stretch-out. I’m most interested in two prices. #10 Quiet Type has obviously had plenty of chances, but she’s only raced on turf 6 times and has hit the board in half of those attempts. She has the right running style for this race as a closer and I think she’s going to benefit from Luis Saez retaining the mount. Eric Cancel was letting her drop too far back in recent starts, and Saez at least got her a bit closer to the pace last time. He ended losing ground at an inopportune juncture when going wide at the quarter pole, but she was still staying on well at the end. I think she’s good enough to beat this field if the pace is in her favor. The other horse I want to use is #4 Lollygag. She’s never run for a tag on the turf before, and this drop in class figures to make her competitive. The major question mark is the distance, as she’s never gone this far. However, she has the stamina breeding on the bottom side of her pedigree to handle it. If she merely holds her recent form against this soft bunch, I think she can be around at the finish. Both of these runners figure to be decent prices.

WIN: #10 Quiet Type, at 5-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #4 Lollygag, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 5: COMMANDER COMPTON (#5)

I suppose #4 Khafre could go favored here as he drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. However, he’s going to have to run better than he did in his prior dirt start back in June when he lost a headbob in an off-the-turf affair. He’s run his best races on the synthetic and turf courses at Gulfstream, particularly when he was in the barn of Brendan Walsh. His races since returning to the Jimmy Jerkens barn have been a little lackluster. Yet he does have the advantage of early speed, as the Pace Projector is predicting he’ll be in front in a situation favoring the early leader. #7 Southern Passagealso has a right to do better on the drop in class, but his deep-closing running style doesn’t seem conducive to this racecourse. He was just no factor against a tougher field two weeks ago. I’m going in a different direction with #5 Commander Compton. He’s coming in a little slow on speed figures, but I think he may be heading in the right direction. He obviously went the wrong way last fall, but he had previously run his best dirt race over this course and distance as a 2-year-old when getting up for second in a maiden special weight event. He finally showed some signs of life for the first time since last summer in his most recent start at Churchill. He got a much more aggressive ride from Florent Geroux and was engaged throughout, fighting for the maiden victory. He’s stepping up to face a tougher field here, but Phil Bauer’s horses have been running well at this meet and he has the right kind of rider aboard in Luis Saez.

WIN: #5 Commander Compton, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 6: SNICKET (#1)

This Union Avenue is a wide open affair in which you can make a case for most of the entrants. #2 Secret Love is arguably the one to beat as she gets some class relief after trying tougher in a few of her recent starts. She actually ran pretty well to win a muddy allowance event at Belmont back in May and she’s held that form pretty well since then. She’s just found herself against some rivals that are more talented than those she meets here. However, she could be a short price and I’m more interested in another horse exiting the Dancin Renee Stakes from Belmont. #1 Snicket got a wide trip that day, chasing superior horses while losing ground. She actually stayed on decently to only be beaten for third by less than a length. This time she’s drawn the rail so I expect Trevor McCarthy to give her a much more aggressive ride. She’s never run speed figures that are quite as high as a few others in here, but she’s been in good form as a 5-year-old and should be a square price for an underrated barn. #3 Mashnee Girl also fits here, though she has to prove that she can be as effective over a shorter distance. I could also make a mild case for #6 Eloquent Speaker, though it’s problematic that her two best races from last winter were earned with the benefit of perfect trips.

WIN: #1 Snicket, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 2,6

RACE 7: BAHAMIAN CLUB (#2)

#5 Al Qahira is arguably the one to beat after just failing to hit the board in the Grade 3 Lake George a few weeks ago. She ran pretty well stepping up in class off a maiden victory last time, but she also enjoyed a front-running trip in a race that didn’t feature much pace. That’s unlikely to be the case here with multiple other speeds signed on. A few horses in this field exit the eighth race on June 16. The only runner I want from that affair is #2 Bahamian Club, who I'm fine to scratch into as my top pick after Frippet was withdrawn. I’m not sure how good this filly actually is, but she didn’t get the right trip last time. She was buried down on the inside during a week when that wasn’t the place to be while also stuck in traffic. I think she can fare better with a clean run this time, but I’m not thrilled with the rider switch to Irad Ortiz, since she’s likely to take more money than is really warranted. #8 Storm Kiss is a little interesting as she tries turf for the first time for Wesley Ward. She has some pedigree for this surface and looked like more of a turf type when she broke her maiden on synthetic at Turfway.

WIN: #2 Bahamian Club, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 8

RACE 10: SINFULLY SWEET (#4)

I can’t take a short price on likely favorite #11 She’s a Mia, who has finished second in four consecutive starts. She really had no excuse to lose last time when making a move that was seemingly timed well before getting passed from behind the eventual winner. She just seems like a difficult horse to ride and I don’t trust her to negotiate a winning journey in this large field. I’d rather take #6 Classic Lynne from that stallion stakes. She seemed like one that may have needed her last race, even though Joe Sharp has solid statistics off layoffs. This is the right kind of spot for her and she picks up Luis Saez, but she does have to take a step forward off her 2-year-old form. #7 Waterville and #8 Whatlovelookslike faced off in a maiden race here last summer. Both are still pretty lightly raced and come into this with a right to continue moving forward, so I’m not really against either one. I just want to get a little more creative with #4 Sinfully Sweet. She feels like one who could get a little overlooked in this spot despite registering an impressive maiden victory last time out, which earned her a competitive 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That came going 5 1/2 furlongs, but she strikes me as one that can get the added distance. She’s by versatile sire Twirling Candy out of a dam who wanted to go long on dirt. She has the tactical speed to work out the right trip and is drawn favorably towards the inside.

WIN: #4 Sinfully Sweet, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 6,7,8