by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   7 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 2:   6 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   4 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 4:   4 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 5:   2 - 5 - 7 - 9
Race 6:   6 - 5 - 7 - 4
Race 7:   8 - 3 - 1/1A - 7
Race 8:   5 - 4 - 8 - 2
Race 9:   10 - 8 - 1A - 2
Race 10:   10 - 4 - 9 - 8

PLAYS

 
RACE 4: ALTEA (#4)
Two of the mares who figure to take money in this Perfect Sting are dropping out of the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley, which was won by the talented Rushing Fall. Of that pair I strongly prefer Altea. I know this 5-year-old has developed a reputation of settling for minor awards, but I think a big part of that is the fact that she’s just been a little unlucky. That was certainly the case two back when she lost the Mint Julep by a length after getting held up in traffic in upper stretch. Then last time Joel Rosario tried to tip out at the top of the stretch to make a rally, but ultimately had to angle back down inside for a clear path, and she was finishing best of all at the end of that race. It appears that Chad Brown has gotten her into the best form of her career right now, and I think this drop in class might do the trick for her. There isn’t much pace in this field, which is a concern for everyone, but at least Altea has the best finishing speed, as her TimeformUS Late Pace Rating of 124 is the highest in this field. I don’t mind Chad Brown’s other horse Cafe Americano, who certainly has a right to improve as a 4-year-old. She also may possess better tactical speed than her stablemate. The other horse that intrigues me is Feel Glorious. She’s really stepped forward this year for Christophe Clement, as she only finished a neck behind Waya winner My Sister Nat in the New York two back and then closed well in the late stages of the Matchmaker at Monmouth last time. This distance is perfect for her, but she’s another one who will need some pace to set up her late kick.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,6,7
Trifecta: 4 with 1,5 with 1,5,6,7
 

RACE 5: COLLOQUIST (#2)
The two favorites in this spot figure to be Its a Wrap and Ahead of Plan, and both of them come in with some questions to answer. Its a Wrap is arguably the more trustworthy of this duo as he drops in for a tag for the first time. While he ran fairly well in his turf debut on June 5, he wasn’t able to get up to win despite getting a good trip and was legitimately disqualified for a bumping incident late. Yet his last effort cutting back to this 5 1/2 furlong distance concerns me a bit. He was obviously facing a better horse in French Reef, who looks bound for stakes, but he never really picked up his feet in the lane. Perhaps he wins this race with a similar effort, but I wasn’t thrilled about accepting a short price on him. Ahead of Plan is even more difficult to trust, as he put in an abysmal effort in his first start off the layoff earlier at this meet. That was on the dirt, but dirt seemed like it might have been his preferred surface. The fact that Chad Brown is putting him back on turf and dropping in for a tag implies desperation. I want to look elsewhere as there are a few interesting prices in this race. My top pick is longshot Colloquist. I know this horse looks improbable based on his turf results, but he’s had some subtle trips in his races. He didn’t run that badly first time out behind subsequent stakes winners Jack and Noah and Turned Aside. Then he got a poor ride on October 20 when sent to make a premature wide move on the turn. He didn’t get back to turf until last time, and he was asked to go two turns. While he faded late, I actually thought he ran pretty well in that July 26 affair, as he got steadied into the first turn and then chased an honest pace. I like the turnback for him, and he’s clearly run his best races for trainer Phil Gleaves.

Win/Place: 2
 

RACE 6: LIFE IN SHAMBLES (#6)
Eye Luv Lulu has been scratched again, and I’m even less thrilled with the remaining half of the entry Clench, another former Jason Servis runner. I think the right horse to take in this spot is Life in Shambles. While he is yet another ex-Jason Servis runner, at least he’s run well since leaving that barn for two different trainers. These connections claimed him in March at Aqueduct, but were forced to send him down to Gulfstream to race with the pandemic forcing racing to go on hiatus in New York. Life in Shambles put in an excellent effort to win an optional claiming race two back, defeating three next-out winners going this same 6 1/2-furlong distance. While he lost at the same level last time, he had a legitimate excuse, as the early pace was extremely slow and he was unable to catch the leaders. He figures to get more pace to close into this time, and he’s realistically placed off the trainer switch to Linda Rice. I would primarily use him with the logical Shamrocked, who is getting some realistic class relief off the layoff. I'm also somewhat intrigued by turnback Family Biz, who has been facing much better company in route races and can certainly handle sprint distance.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,5,7
 

RACE 8: LEAKY CUP (#5)
Tale of the Union is the horse to beat as he seeks his second victory in a row after winning his New York-bred N1X condition last time. I thought he got a very good trip on that occasion, stalking outside of an overmatched rival before drawing off in the late stages. He won by two lengths, but his main rival Big Thicket was somewhat compromised by a slow pace and inside trip. He can obviously win again, but it’s not as if his last-out 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him some kind of standout in this field and he’s going to be an awfully short price. Furthermore, Tale of the Union isn’t always the quickest away from the gate, and if he breaks a step slowly that could give Leaky Cup a significant advantage. And Leaky Cup may not even need the help based on his last race. I was willing to forgive him for his effort off the layoff in June at Belmont as he got cooked in a fast pace. He took a noticeable step forward last time as he put away his main pace rival and hung in well until the late stages when Big Engine scampered away from him. He routinely runs TimeformUS Speed Figures upwards of 110 and I just don’t see anyone who can stick with him in the early stages. The wild card in this field may be Runaway Lute. He fell down when breaking through the gate at Laurel last time and unsurprisingly failed to perform well after that. He’s been working well for his return to NYRA and Jeremiah Englehart is placing him in a realistic spot.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,7,8
Trifecta: 5 with 4 with 2,7,8
 

RACE 9: EMPTY TOMB (#10)
The remaining half of the Klaravich Stables entry Value Engineering is a viable contender in his own right. He was clearly best when just getting nailed on the wire going 1 3/8 miles last time after getting caught up in a fast pace over a very demanding turf course. I think this horse is in top form right now, but he may have to take another step forward in order to beat this accomplished field. I prefer some others at better prices. Among the logical players, I think Current deserves the most respect. He’s clearly improved for Todd Pletcher this year, and I don’t think that he necessarily needs marathon distances to be at his best. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for this disappointing effort in the Grade 1 United Nations last time, since he was forced to race wide without cover every step of the way. If he merely holds his form while dropping down in class I think he’ll be tough to deny. Yet I want to get more creative with my top selection because there is a horse in this race who intrigues me as a potential wild card. Empty Tomb has only raced on dirt so far his career, but he’s shown some talent at different points. He was an encouraging third in a very tough optional claiming race at Churchill Downs last fall before disappointing over the winter for Steve Asmussen. He was recently sold at auction for $190,000 and transferred to Mike Maker, who immediately puts him on turf. Not only is Mike Maker dangerous with his recent turf acquisitions, but this horse has a gigantic turf pedigree. His by excellent grass influence Speightstown out of an unraced dam whose only other winning foal is turf stakes-placed Strike My Fancy. Furthermore, the second generation of his female family is very strong, as his dam is a half-sister to multiple turf winners including Furthest Land, best known for winning the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile over a synthetic track, and Grade 3-placed turfer Street Move. The Pace Projector is predicting that Empty Tomb is fast enough to make the lead in a race that lacks pace and I think he’s going to give a solid account of himself at what figures to be a generous price.

Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,2,4,8
 

RACE 10: UNICORN SALLY (#10)
Lucky Latkes could be the slight favorite in this spot after hitting the board in each of her two starts to date. Furthermore, she goes out for the dangerous Christophe Clement barn, which will only add to her appeal in the eyes of the general public. Yet I haven’t been too impressed with either of her efforts. She gradually made up ground in her debut but that was primarily a function of the fast pace that developed ahead of her. Then last time she against got a fast pace ahead of her and just couldn’t capitalize while one-paced through the stretch. She did get bumped in upper stretch, but that hardly affected her eventual finish. At a similar price, I strongly prefer Unicorn Sally. This filly is dropping down in class out of some tougher maiden special weight events. She could only manage to finish eighth last time, but she ran much better than that result would indicate. She stumbled at the start, placing her at the back of the pace in the early going. She was then forced to launch a wide run on the far turn and was spun out further when the field straightened away for the stretch. All things considered, I thought she put in a decent effort and would be dangerous if merely running back to the improved race that she ran two back. In my eyes she’s the horse to beat. I’d also include Courted, who was involved in those fast paces that benefited Lucky Latkes in her last two starts. It’s unwise to ignore anything from the Jorge Abreu barn right now.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 4,8,9