by David Aragona
Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›
Race 1: 5 - 2 - 3 - 9
Race 2: 6 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 3: 6 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 7 - 11 - 8 - 9
Race 5: 6 - 2 - 3 - 7
Race 6: 8 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 7: 1 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 8: 5 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 9: 3 - 6 - 2 - 8
Race 10: 1 - 6 - 4 - 3
RACE 2: DUNPH (#6)
Walkoff might go off favored in this race based on his seemingly superior speed figures, but I’ve never been the greatest fan of this horse. He got a great setup when he won his second start, taking advantage of a blazing early pace, and then he just got pulled along behind a better field two back. A turf experiment didn’t work and now he’s back in for a tag. He doesn’t have much early speed, and the pace scenario of this race is unlikely to work in his favor. The Pace Projector is predicting a No Speed situation, and I think that could give Dunph an opportunity to recapture the early speed that he once possessed. Seven furlongs may seem like a short distance for him after he failed to handle a sprint last time. However, I believe he’s better on dirt and one-turn distances between 7 furlongs and a mile should suit him. If he can run back to the efforts he put forth in races like the Tampa Bay Derby or Springboard Mile, he’s going to be tough for this field to handle. The other horse that I want to use along with him is Shock Therapy. Like Walkoff, he could also be compromised by a lack of pace. However, I liked the way he closed into a slow pace last time and he just seems like a horse who is finding his best form. Unlike Walkoff, he’ll be a decent price.
RACE 3: SHENNAN (#6)
Likely favorite Value Engineering was a scratch when entered for a $65,000 tag on July 21, which would have been a curious drop for a runner that seemingly still has potential. He’s spotted in a maiden special weight here, but that lack of confidence 4 weeks prior is still somewhat disconcerting. This runner is superior to these based on form, having finished behind eventual stakes winner Clint Maroon and G1-placed The Last Zip in his prior starts. He has always looked like one that would appreciate more ground, so the 1 3/16 miles should suit him. However, the lengthy gaps between starts suggest that he’s difficult to keep in steady training. He could be vulnerable at a short price. His main rival is Bail Out, but he has developed a habit of settling for minor awards. He finished second for the third consecutive time on July 25. While that course is listed as “good,” it was quickly becoming a bog as racing was canceled for the day immediately after that race was run. He clearly has the stamina to handle this distance and has earned some of the highest speed figures in this field, but h e usually finds one that’s better than him. I prefer a different horse exiting that rainy July 25 affair. Shennan showed promise in his first two starts in Ireland, finishing like a horse who would appreciate distances beyond a mile. He was hardly disgraced in that U.S. debut, breaking slowly and then staying on well to be third while one-paced through the stretch. There wasn’t a lot of passing going on late in that race, which may have had something to do with the intensely boggy, rainy conditions. I won’t be shocked at all if he’s fitter in his second start off the layoff, and he may appreciate getting on firm turf.
RACE 5: FUEL THE BERN (#6)
It’s difficult to know who will be favored in this confusing optional-claiming race. The two runners with recent back class, Life in Shambles and Do Share, are both coming into this race off poor efforts and seem hard to trust. Do Share would obviously trounce this group if he runs back to his Tom Fool performance from March. However, that seems very unlikely given his lackluster recent efforts and this drop back in for a tag. He’s beaten just one horse home over the course of his last two starts and he’s not going to get much pace ahead of him to set up his late run. Life in Shambles seems like a more reliable option since he at least runs semi-consistent speed figures. However, it’s been a while since he’s threatened to win a race and the move back to turf last time seems a little desperate. Now he’s dropping in for the $62,500 tag and his typical effort puts him in the mix. I just don’t want to take him as the potential favorite. Some might try to make cases for horses like Mucho and Cove Blue, and I’m not way against either of them. They just don’t really appeal to me. My top pick is Fuel the Bern, who returns from a short layoff for Danny Gargan. This horse spent much of his career racing on turf, but he’s found a new lease on life since becoming a dirt sprinter for Gargan. He moved up the class ladder over the winter, and transferred that form to Kentucky when winning an allowance at Keeneland going this distance. He found himself in a salty race on Derby weekend last time and he was hardly disgraced while fading to fifth going a distance that may be too far for him. He appears to be working well for the return and I like that he’s drawn outside of the other speeds.
RACE 7: UP THE ANTE (#1)
The Pace Projector is characterizing this race as featuring a No Speed situation, but I don’t that’s quite accurate. Up the Ante isn’t being handled as a front-runner, having been rated in his recent performances. However, the Up the Ante that we saw last year was best when using pace-setting tactics, and I would imagine the plan will be to revert to that game plan here. Up the Ante is just the only possible speed in this situation and Joel Rosario has ridden him effectively on the front end. His two prior turf wins have come going one turn at Belmont, but he proved his ability to handle two turns at Saratoga when finishing second in the Saranac last year. He didn’t run well in the Monmouth Stakes last time, but that came against a significantly tougher field, and he was unable to make the lead. I think he’s going to give a much better account of himself here, and you couldn’t ask for a more favorable setup. His main rival may be Aquaphobia, who figures to appreciate a slight turnback in distance after fading behind the highly regarded Annals of Time last time. That was his first start since February and he figures to improve in his second start off the layoff. The others just don’t do a great deal for me. Runners like Maraud and Multiplier have probably seen better days, and their late-running styles may compromise their chances.
RACE 9: ANOTHER MIRACLE (#3)
It’s hard to get past the two favorites in this Skidmore. Another Miracle may go off as the slight choice as he makes his turf debut, and I think he’s a deserving favorite. This horse showed a ton of ability from the start, running second to eventual Saratoga Special winner Green Light Go in his debut. He then improved second time out, earning a 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure when beating a solid off-the-turf field here a few weeks ago. Notably, he was intended for turf that day and he gets his chance over the new surface here. American Pharoah is proving to be a solid turf influence and there is enough pedigree on the dam’s side to suggest he should have no trouble transferring his dirt form to grass. He’s reportedly been working well over the Oklahoma turf course. Furthermore, he possesses superior early speed and he could just control the entire way over a turf course that has gotten very firm. Montauk Daddy hasn’t run quite as fast, but he figures to give the favorite a challenge at some point. He was second to the talented Tuggle when rained off the grass in his debut and then he appeared to love the turf when winning his maiden last time, surviving a fast pace. Linda Rice adds Lasix for this stakes debut. However, he may find himself on the case this time since Another Miracle seems to be a little quicker in the early stages. The others are probably competing for minor awards. I would use Proven Strategies and Now Is as backups and underneath.
RACE 10: TALESPIN (#1)
The finale is a frustrating race where you have to choose among a group of maidens with uninspiring form. I suppose Paynter’s Prize is the horse to beat off his trip last time. Dropping in for a tag for the first time, he appeared to be in a good spot, but things just didn’t work out for him through the stretch. He was in a difficult spot stymied inside and had to steady as runners shifted about in upper stretch. He clearly would have finished much closer with a clean trip, so he deserves another look in a similar spot. However, he’s always been a difficult horse to ride and I don’t fully trust him at what figures to be another short price. I want a new face, so I’m taking a shot with Talespin. This horse showed a bit of ability on dirt against cheap foes over the winter, and he should be a pace presence from this inside slot going a mile. There is enough pedigree for this runner to handle grass since Forty Tales is a decent turf influence and he’s a half-brother to 3-time turf winner Bluegrass Springs. While it appears that he ran very poorly in his return on dirt last time, that performance is not nearly as disappointing as it seems. The rail was as dead as it’s ever been on July 26, and Talespin was right down inside for the majority of his trip. You can draw a line through that race and he figures to have gotten some needed fitness out of it. I don’t think anyone in that race is this formidable, so I’m willing to take a shot with this horse at a price.