by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 3 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 2: 5 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 3: 5 - 7 - 1 - 3
Race 4: 1 - 2 - 5
Race 5: 9 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 6: 6 - 1/1X - 14 - 4
Race 7: 9 - 5 - 1 - 8
Race 8: 6 - 1/1A - 8 - 3
Race 9: 11 - 8 - 1 - 12
Race 10: 1 - 3 - 2 - 10
RACE 2: LAND MINE (#5)
Frostie Anne is the horse to beat as she seeks her sixth win in a row. While she’s earned speed figures that would win this race, I’m somewhat skeptical of her at a very short price. Nine furlongs around two turns has always been a stretch for this mare. I know that she got the job done last time, but that came against an uncompetitive field in an off-the-turf race. Now she’s returning just five days later and is likely to face early pace pressure from Verdant Pastures, who is a need-the-lead type of filly. If they go too fast, Frostie Anne could find herself vulnerable to a runner more suited to this trip. I’m not against Verdant Pastures in this spot, as she has run fast enough to beat this field and ran her career-best race going this trip at Saratoga. However, she can be awfully unreliable and seems to throw in the towel when things don’t go her way. At her best, she can win, but I can’t pick her on top. The horse I want to bet here is Land Mine. I was interested in her last time, when she was making her first start back off a seven-month layoff going this distance over a sloppy track. She clearly handles surfaces with moisture in them, so that was not a detriment. However, that particular wet track was extremely speed-favoring, which gave the winner, Alberobello, a significant advantage. Considering the way the race played out, I thought Land Mine put in a game try to be second. Phil Serpe does not have the strongest numbers off layoffs of that type, so it was a great place for her to get started. She gives the impression that she wants every bit of this distance, and she figures to work out a great trip stalking the two aforementioned speeds. This filly showed a ton of promise late last year, and I think she’s finally ready to take that next step.
RACE 7: CYPRIANA (#9)
This intriguing allowance race drew a highly competitive field with no shortage of new faces. However, a few of the main contenders do exit the 6th race on July 20. Dancing All Night probably ran the best race that day, as she attacked a solid early pace from the outset, appeared to have today’s rival Palladian Bridge measured at the sixteenth pole, and was just barely run down by a late-closing Hay Field. That was an excellent effort for her first start in nearly a year, and she will be tough to beat if she takes a step forward. In my opinion, the most interesting filly out of that July 20 race is Cypriana. This filly is a bit of a head case, and her worst behavior was on display last time as she bolted around the far turn, taking Javier Castellano nearly to the outside rail as she refused to corner. Most horses would have been eased in that situation, but she somehow rejoined the race to only lose by 6 1/2 lengths – pretty remarkable considering that she covered 70 more feet around the turn that Dancing All Night, according to Trakus. Mark Hennig had been quoted as saying after the race that running at Saratoga on opening day may have been too much for her to handle, so I think it’s a good sign that he’s entered her back in a spot like this so quickly. She worked well 11 days ago, as she usually does, and Ricardo Santana, Jr. is likely to give her the aggressive ride that she probably needs. I don’t fully trust her, but I think she’s one that will be a price in this spot. The most interesting new faces in this race are McCall and Cilantro, both of whom are coming off maiden wins. Of those two, I prefer McCall, who won a legitimately fast race at Ellis Park last time with an electric late rally up the rail. This barn is not known for winning with inexperienced horses, so she may possess extraordinary talent.
RACE 9: CHASE GREATNESS (#11)
This Skidmore drew a fantastic field of 2-year-olds, but Chelsea Cloisters and Stillwater Cove are expected to scratch after contesting the Bolton Landing on Wednesday. The one likely to attract the most attention is the undefeated filly Shang Shang Shang, who beat the boys when taking down the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. She earned that victory the hard way, by leading from the outset and turning away all challengers. Based on that performance, she may be a special talent, but this return to the U.S. presents some challenges. There is plenty of other speed in this field, and the race drew an unusually strong set of rivals for a mid-summer juvenile turf stakes race. I’m using her, but I think we can find value elsewhere. Phil Gleaves has entered both of his 2-year-old turf winners from the Belmont meet, as Yes and Yes and Swamp Rat both won their debuts at healthy mutuels. It’s hard to separate them, as they both have off the pace running styles and have proven themselves against solid competition. I’m using them, but there are some interesting first time turfers in the line-up. One of those is obviously Sir Truebadour, who is a full-brother to top turf sprinter Regally Ready. He showed promise on dirt earlier this year, but may be destined to hookup with Shang Shang Shang in the early going of this race. At a bigger price, I’m more interested in Chase Greatness. This Horacio DePaz trainee has been meant for turf, as he was entered for that surface in his second career start. As a son of More Than Ready and a half-brother to this barn’s stakes-placed turf filly Chubby Star, grass is supposed to be his preferred surface. He showed some promise beating today’s rival Carter Cat in the slop two back and then he never had a fair chance after breaking slowly in the Sanford last time. It’s a good sign to see a live rider like Jose Ortiz take the mount, and he should get a good trip stalking from mid-pack.