PICKS

Race 1:   13 - 6 - 14 - 12
Race 2:   1 - 7 - 6 - 2
Race 3:   10 - 11 - 4 - 1X
Race 4:   2 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 5:   2 - 8 - 6 - 4
Race 6:   11 - 9 - 7 - 2
Race 7:   7 - 2 - 6 - 8
Race 8:   1 - 7 - 8 - 6
Race 9:   1 - 3 - 5 - 9
Race 10:   4 - 5 - 2 - 3

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: SPECIAL JO (#1)
Tug of War comes into this race in the best form, but I think he could be pace-compromised in this spot, since he's a closer in a race that lacks much early speed. Furthermore, he may prefer slightly longer distances than six furlongs and could find himself outrun in the early stages. The Pace Projector is predicting that Special Jo will be clearly in front early in a situation favoring the leader, and he's the one that I want to bet. His last race was disappointing, but he was making his first start off the claim by Joe Sharp that day, and he has poor numbers with that move at NYRA tracks. Now he's going out for top claiming trainer Robertino Diodoro, whose runners have actually done reasonably well at this meet despite the fact that he only has one winner. If he shakes loose early, they may never catch him.

RACE 5: MISSBIGTIMES (#2)
Perhaps one of the first-time starters will prove to be talented, but I think there's a runner with experience in this field that looks pretty formidable. Missbigtimes figures to improve off her first start, a third behind eventual Adirondack Stakes winner Pure Silver. This Jeremiah Englehart-trained filly ran deceptively well that day, as she was off in a tangle before getting immediately steered outside of horses to race wide into the far turn. Despite losing ground, she advanced willingly into third before chasing the leaders home through the lane. All things considered, this was an encouraging performance, and young horses like this can take major steps forward from start to start early in their 2-year-old seasons. Englehart has had a strong year with his 2-year-olds, and this filly looks like another runner with a future.

RACE 6: PAINTER’S RAGS (#11)
The horse to beat with this race coming off the turf is obviously Caviar Czar, who handled this going when breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Derby undercard. However, it is worth noting that he was racing on the best part of the track that day down along the rail. He did well in his first start against winners last time, but he racing up close to a relatively slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs) that held together. I think he will face a serious challenge from Painter’s Rags, who gets back on dirt after a failed turf experiment last time out. This son of Union Rags handled a wet track when winning his debut with a strong finish back in December, and then was against a slow pace next time out behind Battalion Runner at Gulfstream. He should have gotten some needed fitness out of his return, and I think he will appreciate this stretch-out to nine furlongs. At a big price, I also want to use Harlan Strong, who may have improved overall in recent starts since he was last on dirt.

RACE 10: HOLY WEEK (#4)
The horse that wins this race is probably going to be the one that handles this distance on the dirt best, since a number of the contenders may not actually want to go this far over this surface. Horses like Sanavi and Prize Fight figure to take money, but I'm not confident in their ability to win two-turn races on the main track. I've instead landed on Holy Week. I know this horse isn't exactly known for winning races, but his lone victory came at this distance, over this racetrack, on a sloppy surface – and there's rain in the forecast for Friday. He clearly moves up on a wet track, as she showed last time when finishing a close third to Control Group and Tellmeafookystory, both of whom would be formidable in this spot. These connections can win on the NYRA circuit and he should get a fair pace to close into.