PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 2:   8 - 1 - 7 - 5
Race 3:   4 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 4:   2 - 1A/1 - 4 - 6
Race 5:   7 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 6:   7 - 9 - 2 - 5
Race 7:   1 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 8:   5 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 9:   5 - 6 - 8 - 3
Race 10:   8 - 4 - 3 - 2

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: LADY FIREFOOT (#8)

Chad Brown holds a very strong hand in this maiden claimer, as he sends out the two likely favorites. Beachfront Bid (#1) has the stronger credentials, having finished second at the maiden special weight level in 4 of her 6 starts. This is just a logical Saratoga dropdown for a barn that likes to win races, as this filly hasn’t really progressed since the winter at Gulfstream despite continuing to run well. She’s clearly the horse to beat, but I don’t like to default to short-priced favorites who seem to have issues winning races. For what it’s worth, Chad Brown is 8 for 18 (44%, $2.84 ROI) going from maiden special weight to maiden claiming races on turf at Saratoga over 5 years. That stat also applies to Gather the Facts (#7), but she’s a little tougher to endorse off her last race. She ran fine in her career debut, but was one who needed plenty of encouragement to get into gear. She just didn’t respond as well with the blinkers last time, and those come off here. However, the stretch-out is an added hurdle, and it’s not like she’s going to be a great price either. I’m going in a different direction with Lady Firefoot (#8). She’s stepping up into a much tougher spot after debuting for $40k earlier in the meet. However, I thought she showed some promise that day. She was off to a slow start and got into some trouble down the backstretch when steadying in behind horses. She also had to check on the turn before finishing up decently through the lane. She looks like one that should want to run a lot farther than 5 1/2 furlongs, so I like the stretch-out for this daughter of Temple City.

WIN: #8 Lady Firefoot, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 4: OUTPERFORM (#2)

I acknowledge that the Chad Brown entry looks pretty tough, but this pair is going to be the overwhelming favorite, and I do think there is at least one alternative worth considering. Between the two Brown runners, Indemnify (#1A) is the proven commodity who looks especially formidable. He ran fairly well on debut when part of another heavily-favored entry and closed decently through the lane into some slow early fractions. He earned a strong 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the performance and will be difficult to beat if he repeats that effort. Transactional (#1) is more of a wild card as he debuts in the middle of his 3-year-old season. This son of Kingman was purchased at Tattersalls for $351k but has apparently been gelded since then. There is plenty of classy turf pedigree, but it’s hard to read too much into his dirt workouts for this debut. I’m taking a shot against this pair with Outperform (#2). I know this colt has been a bit of a disappointment for Pletcher after taking money in his first couple of starts. However, he seemed to take a slight step forward off the layoff last time, and I like this switch to turf for him. Gun Runner hasn’t had that much turf success as a sire, but there is turf on the bottom side of this pedigree. I also really liked the way he was moving over turf in that Aug. 12 Oklahoma drill, besting his company while floating over the ground. I think we’re going to see a better performance out of him, and perhaps that will be good enough to challenge the entry.

WIN: #2 Outperform, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 6: ULUMALU (#7)

Provision (#9) and Secretary of War (#2) finished second and third, respectively, in a race that this level back on Aug. 4. I thought Provision ran the better race that day, as he had to stalk in the two-path while Secretary of War rode the rail. Provision kicked on better at the top of the lane, and was in contention until getting pushed inward by the eventual winner in deep stretch. Jonathan Thomas, trainer of Secretary of War, does well with second time starters, but his numbers with 2-year-olds aren’t particularly impressive. I prefer Provision today but it’s not as if either one figures to be much of a price as the obvious runners with positive experience in this field. There are a few other second time starters with upside, but I’m most interested in one of the firsters. Ulumalu (#7) is a $20k yearling purchase by 6% debut sire Cinco Charlie. Though that sire never ran on turf, he’s been a deceptively strong turf influence, getting 18% turf winners among his progeny. The dam was unraced but all 4 of her foals are winners, including one minor turf winner. Ken McPeek is 5 for 49 (10%, $2.11 ROI) with 2-year-old first time starters in turf routes over the past 5 years. This colt has been clearly best in company with Highest Rated, a $1 million unraced son of Frankel, in his recent workouts on the Oklahoma dirt course. He appears to have some ability for a modestly-bred sort, and may get somewhat overlooked.

WIN: #7 Ulumalu, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 7: FREEDOM SPEAKS (#1)

My primary take on this N1X allowance race is that I want to play against horses exiting the July 24 race at this level. That just didn’t appear to be the strongest field, and I’m skeptical about the overall quality of runners coming out of that race. So I’m most interested in new faces, and one of those might be the horse to beat. Crowding Out (#5) is stepping up off a maiden win, but she ran very well to get the victory that day over next-out winner Mrs. Green. That was her first start back off a layoff, and she had previously run well as a 3-year-old. She’s now taking the logical next step and probably doesn’t need to improve that much to factor here. American Heroine (#4) is another 3-year-old filly who offers some appeal. She’s trying something new as she turns back in distance, but Christophe Clement has solid stats with this move. She faced some pretty nice horses in her last start and could be a player here with routine improvement during the time away. My top pick is Freedom Speaks (#1), who gets on turf for the first time. She is going to have to transfer her synthetic form to the grass, as she ran much better on that surface than she did in her second start on dirt. The way she moved over Tapeta in her debut suggests to me that turf won’t be a problem, and she showed some ability that day, drawing off to win by 6 lengths. She’s a half-sister to two turf winners, including one who excelled sprinting. She also reported worked quite well over the grass on Aug. 5, and I don’t think she’s meeting the toughest field here.

WIN: #1 Freedom Speaks, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 4,5

RACE 8: FIRST TO ACT (#5)

This Summer Colony has attracted a pretty classy field of fillies and mares, though a few of them are looking to build some confidence after coming off losses against tougher company. Bonny South (#7) and Army Wife (#1) fall into that category after finishing in a photo for third in the Molly Pitcher last time. Bonny South has been the better horse overall, finishing second in Grade 1 events like the Ogden Phipps and Personal Ensign last season. However, she’s looked a little dull so far this year and probably isn’t going to get much pace to close into. I also have trouble recommending Army Wife, who just hasn’t really stepped forward from her 3-year-old form. Envoutante (#3) is a little more intriguing, since she was off for a long time following her most recent poor effort in the Beholder. Something apparently went amiss that day, and she’s been working well for her return. I’m just a little concerned that her best races have come at Churchill Downs. I’m trying to beat these classy, experienced runners with an up-and-comer. First to Act (#5) obviously needs to take a step forward to beat this field, but she’s done just that in every start so far. She was no match for the more experienced Brattle House two back, but improved considerably last time on the stretch-out. She didn’t appear to be traveling that well early in the race, but she really leveled off once she turned into the stretch, drawing away impressively. She seems like one that should relish this two-turn 1 1/8 miles and she figures to be a square price even with Irad Ortiz retaining the mount.

WIN: #5 First to Act, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 10: APPRAISE (#8)

This Skidmore marks the second start of Oxymore (#3), who was one of the most impressive juvenile debut winners at the recently completely Belmont meet, and clearly the best of those who ran on grass. He went off at 11-1 that day for low-profile connections, but has subsequently been privately purchased by a Michael Dubb partnership and transferred to Chad Brown. The Brown barn is 3 for 13 (23%, $1.45 ROI) first off a trainer switch with last-out maiden winners over the past 5 years. This runner obviously has talent, but horses running back out of that July 1 maiden event haven’t exactly flattered the winner, so there’s some question about the quality of the field he beat. I actually prefer Brown’s other entrant Appraise (#8). I really liked the grit this colt displayed in hanging on to win his debut last month. He got a good trip stalking the pace outside and looked vulnerable to a late challenge from runner-up Inflation Nation before turning that one away at the wire. That came up a fast race as the top two finishers drew well clear of the rest. This Irish-bred son of Kodiac looks very fast and I like the professionalism he showed in his debut. I’m not sure he really deserves to be a much bigger price than Oxymore, so I’m landing here. The other horse that I find very interesting is No Nay Hudson (#4). He won his debut impressively at Keeneland before fading late in the Tremont. I know Wesley Ward was initially apprehensive to try him on turf, but I liked the way he worked over the Oklahoma turf course last week. His pedigree says he’s supposed to be better on this surface, and he could prove a real threat to Oxymore on the front end.

WIN: #8 Appraise, at 2-1 or greater
USE: 4