by David Aragona
Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›
Race 1: 8 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 2: 1 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 3: 3 - 9 - 8 - 1
Race 4: 1 - 8 - 10 - 2
Race 5: 1 - 2 - 7 - 6
Race 6: 2 - 5 - 4 - 8
Race 7: 3 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 8: 6 - 2 - 9 - 8
Race 9: 2 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 10: 10 - 6 - 8 - 7
RACE 4: MACAGONE (#1)
Way Early may go off favored in this race as he returns from a layoff for George Weaver. This runner was quite popular last season, winning at even-money up here last summer before losing twice at short prices in the fall. His connections got awfully ambitious in tackling the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby at the end of last year, and he was never really in position to win while in trouble for the final quarter mile of the race. He’s clearly better than that effort, but it remains to be seen if he can get back to his best form off the long break. Weaver is 3 for 39 (8%, $0.86 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of 180 days or more in turf routes over the past 5 years. Furthermore, Way Early can be somewhat pace dependent given his mid-pack running style. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lea d, and that figures to make Macagone very dangerous. This old pro seems to be back in good form for trainer Jason Servis. While he’s only won once in his last 3 starts, you can make an argument that he was best all three times. He ran extremely well at Gulfstream on Feb. 16 after getting caught up in an early duel. Then last time, I was not a fan of the ride that Joe Bravo gave, as he put this horse in an awkward position on the backstretch, forcing him to make multiple moves after pausing on the turn. It was no disgrace losing to King of Spades, who was in the midst of a 3-race win streak. Macagone is moving up to a higher claiming level, but I think his apparent pace advantage could allow him to overcome that hurdle. He’s always been dangerous against New York-breds and this one-mile trip is his best distance.
RACE 6: SOULMATE (#2)
This race really opens up following the scratch of The Green Mo'ster, who seemed a little suspicious dropping in class. I preferred some alternatives anyway. Herecomesyourman makes plenty of sense as he drops back down into claiming company. He’s always been most competitive in these conditioned claiming spots, though he, too, is not one that loves to win races. Bemma’s Boy should also be considered despite the rise in class after he closed pretty well for third into a moderate pace last time. I’m using all of these, but one of the striking features of this race is the overall lack of pace. None of the horses in this field are true front-runners and I think that could make a horse like Soulmate dangerous. I know he doesn’t appear to be that fast, but he showed improved speed last time out in a race that was run during a driving rainstorm – despite the course being listed as “firm.” He was gritty in victory that day while facing weaker, but I thought he actually ran much better in his prior start on May 24. He lagged behind a moderate pace that day and put in a solid late move to be fourth, only hitting his best stride too late. That field was not any easier than this one and he handled the test well. I like that Welsey Ward is showing some confidence by bringing this runner to New York and he seems to be well-spotted from a class perspective.
RACE 7: ENGLISH BEE (#3)
I suppose Casa Creed is the horse to beat after putting forth strong showings in the Penn Mile and Manila. The latter was a very fast race, which gives him the highest TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field (117). He’s clearly found his niche as a turf miler, and his mid-pack running style should give Junior Alvarado plenty of options in a race that features a somewhat murky pace scenario. I think he’s a must-use in any multi-race or exotics wagers, but I want to look for a slightly better price on my top selection. Moon Colony, the horse that Casa Creed finished behind in the Penn Mile, must also be considered. However, he got a great trip when he won that race, slipping through inside at the top of the stretch after a ground-saving trip. They tried stretching out in the Belmont Derby last time and he just didn’t want to go that far, especially against that kind of company. I acknowledge that he makes some sense on the turnback, but I prefer a different horse out of the Belmont Derby. English Bee was also hindered by the distance of that event, since he’s another who has done his best work in shorter races. He earned a competitive 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure when he won the James W. Murphy at Pimlico two back and that race has come up fairly strong. That’s the only effort on his résumé that makes him competitive here, but he was notably hindered by a rough trip three back when finishing behind Digital Age in the Columbia. I think this runner’s overall form is stronger than it appears and he figures to work out a good ground-saving trip from mid-pack. Any anything around his morning line odds of 9-2, I believe he’s a solid option.
RACE 8: CARLINO (#6)
Tom’s d’Etat is obviously the horse to beat off his last two efforts, both in Grade 2 company. He held on well to be second behind McKinzie’s devastating winning performance in the Alysheba two back, and then last time he was hardly disgraced in the Stephen Foster. His TimeformUS Speed Figures of 125 and 122 are clearly the best recent numbers in the field and a repeat of those efforts would make him awfully formidable. My one reservation is that he’s gotten very favorable pace setups in his last two starts and the Pace Projector is predicting that he may have to deal with a fast pace on this occasion. There’s no doubt that Tom’s d’Etat is the most likely winner, but I don’t want to accept too short of a price on him given the circumstances. The other runners who figure to be short prices don’t entice me greatly. You’re to Blame is solid and consistent, but he probably prefers longer distances. Candygram likely wants to go shorter than this, and Backyard Heaven may not be the same horse that we saw in early 2018. Therefore, I’m instead taking a shot with Carlino, who figures to be a decent price in this race. This Mark Hennig trainee needs pace to close into and he’s probably going to get it in this spot. He got a hot pace to close into in last year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup, and he did very well to get up for fourth against a strong field. He was hindered by a large field in the Pimlico Special two back and then last time he had no chance to make an impact in a Suburban that was dominated on the front end. The demanding 9 furlongs at Saratoga is right up his alley, so he should be coming with a strong run at the end.
RACE 9: HAPPEN (#2)
Concrete Rose will be a heavy favorite to win this second leg of the Turf Tiara after impressively taking down the Belmont Oaks last month. The major concerns heading into that race centered around her ability to get the 1 1/4 miles distance and she put those fears to rest with an emphatic finish. Now that she’s cleared that hurdle, a win here almost seems like a foregone conclusion. She’s not facing any of the rivals that finished immediately behind her last time and most of her new challengers appear to be vastly inferior — that is, all except one. Aidan O’Brien didn’t send his best fillies over for the Belmont Oaks, but even a mediocre runner like Just Wonderful was good enough to finish second, despite not getting any pace to close into. The gap in ability between that filly and Concrete Rose is probably not as large as the winning margin. While Just Wonderful has not returned, Aidan O’Brien has instead sent over a different filly, Happen. While she doesn’t sport as many Group 1 starts as Just Wonderful did, I think this daughter of War Front has more upside. She was slow to come around as a 2-year-old, only winning once from 3 starts. Yet she’s shown more ability this season. She was a solid second in Group 3 company to begin her campaign, and then made a strong move from well back get up by a nose in the Group 3 Athasi Stakes in May. O’Brien then threw her directly into Group 1 waters in the Coronation Stakes, and she wasn’t exactly disgraced while finishing ahead of Just Wonderful. It’s notable that she’s never raced beyond a mile, since her pedigree indicates that she’s supposed to prefer much longer distances than that. Her dam Alexandrova was a multiple Group 1 winner, taking down the Epsom Oaks, Irish Oaks, and Yorkshire Oaks, all contested over 1 1/2 miles. She has produced Somehow, who won the Cheshire Oaks at 1 7/16 miles, and that filly was by sprint sire Fastnet Rock. There’s plenty of evidence to suggest that Happen will improve going this distance and she’s probably best judged off the potential that she’s shown rather than the Timeform Ratings she has earned. If she unleashes the kind of late kick that she displayed in Ireland two back, she will be a late threat to the favorite.