PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   6 - 4 - 3 - 8
Race 3:   3 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 4:   4 - 1/1A - 3 - 5
Race 5:   2 - 4 - 6 - 8
Race 6:   2 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 7:   6 - 1 - 8 - 3
Race 8:   1 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 9:   2 - 4 - 8 - 9
Race 10:   9 - 1 - 6 - 5

PLAYS

RACE 2: MAKIN MY MOVE (#6)
There are a few intriguing first time starters in this lineup, but the one who seems to possess the most raw speed is Makin My Move. This homebred was a $190k RNA at OBS March after working a furlong in 9 4/5. She’s by 9% juvenile debut sire Carpe Diem, but there’s precocity on the bottom side. The dam won her debut as a 2-year-old at Saratoga and was a stakes-winning dirt sprinter. The only sibling to race is stakes-placed turf sprinter Gotta Go Mo. John Kimmel is 3 for 31 (10%, $2.51 ROI) with 2YO firsters in dirt sprints over 5 years, but he’s shown he can have one ready if it’s well meant. This filly was only mildly urged when achieving that sub-48 bullet clocking on July 26, and then she had to be tightly restrained when badly outworking an overmatched stablemate on Aug. 14. This one looks fast, and Saez gets aboard. The other two firsters who figures to take money are Speranza and Empire Lily. The former is a bit more of a mystery as she ships in from Monmouth. A $140k September yearling RNA, she sold for $200k two months later at OBS, and then was an RNA for $380k at Fasig-Tipton Timonium after working an impressive 10 1/5. Into Mischief is a 16% juvenile debut sire, and the dam was a minor stakes-placed dirt sprinter. Two of 4 siblings to race are winners, and while both were precocious they were best on turf. Empire Lily is by 13% juvenile debut sire Pioneerof the Nile, and the dam was multiple graded stakes-placed on dirt, finishing third in the Grade 1 Frizette as a 2-year-old. She goes out for dangerous debut trainer Jorge Abreu, but she broke very slowly in one of those gate workouts. While she seems to have ability, I wonder if she’ll ultimately want to go farther than this.

Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 3,4,8

RACE 4: RICKYS REVENGE (#4)
The entry of Abdan and Recidivist will likely to take plenty of money in this spot since both have the credentials to win. Abdan is arguably the more formidable half of the entry as he turns back in distance for Robertino Diodoro. He didn’t run well in his first start off the claim last time but he found himself in an unusually tough off-the-turf race going too far. He was effective sprinting on dirt prior to that when still with Al Stall and he’ll be tough if he can get back to that performance. Recidivist showed speed before tiring in a similar spot last time and can move forward in his second start off the layoff. However, I prefer another horse out of that race. Rickys Revenge was a first time starter for Ray Handal who just ran like a horse who needed the race. He was away sluggishly and just lagged at the back of the pack throughout. Since then they’ve added blinkers for his morning training, and he’s worked much more forwardly coming into this race. He’s bred to have more ability than he showed on debut and he should appreciate the extra half-furlong. Furthermore, Ray Handal is 8 for 29 (28%, $2.74 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. I thought he was interesting at a price and would use him with the entry as well as My Cousin Rich, who comes off a good effort at Monmouth, and Hoopla, who switches surfaces on the drop with a dirt pedigree.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 1,4 with 1,4 with 2,3,5

RACE 8: WICKED INDEED (#1)
Two of the main players in this starter allowance affair exit the July 17 race at this level won by Baby Yoda. Jake Rocks got closest to that impressive winner at the end, but I think he has some things working against him this time at a much shorter price. He got a perfect trip last time, stalking a slow pace before taking a run at the leader. Yet that was six furlongs, and he hasn’t been quite as effective over this longer 7-furlong trip. Furthermore, he’s sometimes struggled over wet tracks in the past and there is some rain in the forecast. I prefer Repo Rocks out of that July 17 race. He was off slowly, which badly compromised his chances considering the moderate early tempo. Prior to that he had run a series of excellent speed figures against maiden company. Now he returns as a new gelding and shouldn’t mind the slight stretch-out to 7 furlongs. If he can rebound to his best form he’s arguably the one to beat. I’m taking a shot against them with Wicked Indeed. There isn’t much pace signed on in here and I think this gelding could get an aggressive ride from the rail. He has to prove that he fits here from a class standpoint, but he’s run some nice races against claimers at Belmont and handles the distance. Furthermore, Rudy Rodriguez has great stats in this situation. He’s 23 for 71 (32%, $2.16 ROI) first off the claim with last-out winners in dirt sprints over 5 years. He’s also 7 for 32 (22%, $2.68 ROI) first off the claim on dirt at Saratoga over 5 years, and 10 horses in that sample finished second.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,6,10
Trifecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with 2,4,6,9,10

RACE 10: SWEET MISSION (#9)
Whether this race is run on or off the turf, I’m picking Sweet Mission. This filly had a significant trip in her debut, as she was off slowly and appeared to have run coming around the far turn before she was completely shuffled out of the race, steadied repeatedly behind a tiring rival. She figured to do better dropping in for a maiden claiming tag last time at Belmont but she ran into an unusually tough field for the level, as Alpha Babe has returned to run well against winners. This filly was again off a step slowly but she steadily made up ground while racing wide every step of the way. She was claimed out of that race by Mark Hennig is now spotted appropriately for her first start for the new barn. Her turf credentials are fairly obvious, and I prefer her to horses like Gabby Squared and Never Content, both of whom figure to take more money. On dirt, I’d still be interested in Sweet Mission since she doesn’t have an overwhelming turf pedigree. She appears to have trained well for Hennig on the dirt up here and I think she would relish the opportunity to stretch out to 9 furlongs given her pedigree and physical appearance. It’s not as if there’s a ton of dirt form to fear among the others in this spot.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,5,6