by David Aragona
Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›
Race 1: 1 - 9 - 4 - 7
Race 2: 2 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 3: 5 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 6 - 8 - 4 - 9
Race 5: 6 - 2 - 3 - 9
Race 6: 3 - 12 - 4 - 7
Race 7: 2 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 8: 3 - 9 - 7 - 6
Race 9: 8 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 10: 7 - 8 - 9 - 2
Race 11: 9 - 2 - 12 - 5
RACE 2: CATORAT (#2)
Logical contender Jimmy Jazz has had more chances than some of the others, but he has run well in both starts as a 4-year-old. He stayed on decently to be third in a June 2 affair, run during a driving rainstorm. Then last time, I thought he was arguably best, making the first move to put away the early leader before getting cut down by the favorite. His versatile running style should ensure that he works out a good trip. I’m using him prominently, but there are certainly other ways to go. A few runners exit the second race on July 12. Waynes Footsteps was chasing an honest pace that day, but I still thought he should have had more to offer in the lane. Klickitat is probably the one you want out of that heat, since he was green in upper stretch and seemed to be finishing stronger than the rest once he started running straight. Even Crazy Life is worth a look returning to turf in his third start off the layoff. I’ll use all of them, but my top pick is Catorat. It might seem counterintuitive to take a runner moving up in class out of maiden-claiming company in a race this deep. However, this horse ran much better than the running line indicates in his turf debut last time. The pace of that race was extremely fast for the distance, and he was racing well ahead of eventual winner My Amanjena in the early going. Catorat was rank on the backstretch, resenting the restraint of his rider at multiple points. He eventually settled but was forced four wide into the stretch. He got passed late but battled on gamely to the wire. Horses have returned to do well out of that race, and I like that David Donk shows some confidence as he moves him up in class.
RACE 3: BEHIND THE COUCH (#5)
Newly Minted, the likely favorite in this race, has done absolutely nothing wrong on dirt. She dominated a couple of decent fields racing over wet tracks in her first two starts, but she proved she’s just as effective on fast going in that visually impressive Bouwerie score. Stamina is obviously a major concern since she has to stretch out an additional two furlongs, but her talent may allow her to overcome any deficiencies in that area. Progeny of Central Banker have won 16 percent of their dirt-route starts and her dam Newbie earned both of her career victories going a mile on dirt. However, her lone half-sibling is a seven-time dirt-sprint winner. That stamina-building workout last week suggests Linda Rice is trying to get her to relax, though she still may play out as the controlling speed. She’s clearly the horse to beat, but there may not be as much margin for error as in her past victories. I’m taking a shot against her with Behind the Couch. This filly was beaten by today’s rivals Newly Minted and Maiden Beauty in her last two starts, but the added distance could work in her favor in this rematch. She’s probably the only filly in this field who is truly bred to relish 1 1/8 miles. She’s by excellent route sire Awesome Again out of a Tapit-sired mare who is a half-sister to Grade 1-placed dirt router Uncle Lino. Furthermore, her third dam is the excellent stamina influence Oatsee, the dam of graded stakes-winning dirt routers Shackleford, Lady Joanne, and Baghdaria. Behind the Couch has the speed to stay close early, and if this turns into a test of stamina late, she figures to have the advantage.
RACE 4: TAPIZEARANCE (#6)
Scilly Cay seems like a potentially nice 2-year-old for Linda Rice, who doesn’t usually have them cranked up to win first time out. This homebred colt has shown some talent in his training and he’s bred to be a nice sprinter as a half-brother to the talented pair Midnight Transfer and Long Haul Bay. Yet, note the lack of gate works, which is typical for this barn, so don’t be surprised if he’s a little green. Yet the talent is here. Given reservations about that runner’s preparedness, I want to look at some with experience. Lord Camden makes some sense off his decent debut on turf, but Mark Casse does not have very strong statistics with second time starting maidens switching from turf to dirt. I’m instead taking a shot with second time starter Tapizearance for Gary Contessa. This horse totally blew the start in his debut, breaking about 4 lengths behind the field. From there, he tried to move up on the turn but then reacted badly to kickback when tiring in the lane. Since then, Contessa has gelded him and put 5 stick workouts into him, including two from the gate. I think we’re going to see a much more professional racehorse in his second start. It remains to be seen if he’s quite good enough to beat maiden special weight foes, but at least he’ll be an enticing price.
RACE 5: MUNCHKIN MONEY (#6)
It sounds like Fifty Five may end up skipping this race in favor of the more prestigious Ballston Spa on Saturday’s Travers day card. She would be very difficult for this field to beat if she’s run back to her better efforts, but I’ve been left somewhat disappointed by her recent form. She was supposed to win that Mount Vernon in more dominant fashion and then las time she really had no excuse to lose that race at Parx. She’s the horse to beat, but I want to look at some others. English Soul is obviously a threat to wire the field. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners or near the lead, and that favors this game chestnut filly. While she’s definitely improved as a 4-year-old, it’s still unclear if she’s quite good enough to beat a field of this quality. I’m using her, but I prefer one of the Christophe Clement-trained runners. Munchkin Money has been steadily getting better for quite some time, and she continued that forward progression off the trainer switch to Clement last time. Facing a strong field of optional claiming foes, she was visually impressive coming through between horses to win by nearly 2 lengths. She has a versatile running style that should place her relatively close to English Soul in the early going, and I believe she’s going to be tough to hold off – even with Fifty Five in the race – if she repeats that last effort.
RACE 6: ROCKIN JO (#3)
I’m interested to see how the public approaches Call Me Harry, who surprised at 15-1 in his debut when beating a mediocre field by nearly 4 lengths. He earned a speed figure that makes him one of the top contenders here, but it remains to be seen if he can duplicate that performance while stepping up to face winners for the first time. Red Zinger makes plenty of sense in his second turf start. He got a great trip when finishing second to Fled last time, but he also really took to the turf, transferring over his solid dirt form. Furthermore, he figures to work out another good trip stalking what should be a moderate pace. I’m using both of these, but my top pick is Rockin Jo, who is now sticking to turf for trainer Dennis Lalman. I think that’s the right move with a horse who broke his maiden on this surface a long time ago. This horse does his best work on the lead, but Dylan Davis did not ride him aggressively last time. Rockin Jo did adapt fairly well to stalking tactics, but I think he’d be better served to use his speed here. Therefore, I like this rider switch to Manny Franco, who should be a bit more willing to send from this inside post position. Rockin Jo earned a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that last race, which actually makes him one of the fastest horses in this race on turf, and he figures to be a price due to the low-profile connections.
RACE 7: BIG Q (#2)
This Seeking the Ante features the rematch between Fierce Lady and My Italian Rabbi. The excuses for Fierce Lad’s loss at 1-5 last time were well-documented, and she will obviously win this race if she runs back to her stellar debut effort. However, I’m starting to wonder if we’re every going to see that version of her again. She was clearly a filly who was cranked up to win going 5 furlongs first time out, and I just don’t fully trust her to rebound to that effort now that some time has passed. I still prefer her to My Italian Rabbi, but I don’t think she’s any kind of cinch in this race at what figures to be a very short price once again. I’m trying to beat her with Big Q. I know she hasn’t run quite as fast as the favorites, but I like what I’ve seen out of this filly in her first couple of starts. It was difficult to make a speed figure for her unusually slow debut run over a dead track on opening day at Saratoga. She ran well within the context of that race, making a move to break the race open in mid-stretch. She was then hardly disgraced in the Adirondack, putting herself in contention in upper stretch while getting squeezed against the rail. She faded late, but at least she got in some valuable experience going this distance. There is a ton of speed in this field, and Big Q is one of the few who has proven that she’s best closing from the off the pace. Gary Gullo also adds Lasix for this third start.
RACE 8: CITY MAN (#3)
This race drew a pretty competitive lineup of 2-year-olds, but I’m not trying to beat the likely favorite. Some other horses in this field have run faster than City Man did in his debut, but none were as visually impressive as him. The word was out once he got in off the main-track-only list in that July 18 affair, as he was bet down to 6-5 odds. There were some horses who can actually handle dirt in that field, so it’s not as if he was only beating up on a bunch of turf horses. City Man broke a bit slowly and then raced keenly while restrained four wide on the far turn. Once Joel Rosario asked him for run approaching the quarter pole, he looped the field and took over impressively despite trying to lug in through the lane. This colt strikes me as a horse who should have no trouble handling the stretch-out to 6 1/2 furlongs, and he also seems to be a likely candidate to run faster second time out with that experience under his belt. I also respect Christophe Clement’s other runner, Listentoyourheart, who was narrowly beaten by Sky of Hook in the Rick Violette last time. Sky of Hook was somewhat opportunistic that day – just as he was in his debut – since Listentoyourheart did all the dirty work up front and put away the other speed. Others to consider are Mission Wrapitup, who may have just not appreciated a sloppy track last time, and Theitalianamerican, who has the size and running style to suggest that this added distance will really work in his favor. That said, they all could be running for second if City Man shows the expected improvement out of his debut.
RACE 9: DOT MATRIX (#8)
I have no strong argument against the likely favorite Offering Plan. He’s simply the horse to beat and will be tough for this field to handle with anything close to his best effort. That said, he’s not exactly a win machine like his female stablemate Fifty Five, the favorite in the Yaddo. Offering Plan has long a number of close decisions at Saratoga over the years and his three efforts so far in 2019 have all been somewhat dull. I’m using him on most of my tickets, but I think you can entertain alternatives. I’m not that interested in Therapist, who many will consider to be his main rival. I just don’t think this horse is best going 1 1/16 miles around two turns. I’m instead going with Dot Matrix as my top selection. This horse hasn’t faced New York-bred company more than once since the trainer switch to Brad Cox, but he actually ran quite well in that lone start against state-breds in May 2018. That was going a mile around one turn at Belmont, and I think this horse is better going the two turns. Furthermore, he appears to have returned in good form this year. His return at Churchill was visually impressive and then last time he just didn’t get the right trip as he was racing down inside for much of the way in a race that was dominated on the front end.
RACE 10: NOT THAT BRADY (#7)
I’m not going to say anything clever about this Albany Stakes. Not That Brady is supposed to win this race if he maintains his current form. I know he was beaten by Bankit in the New York Derby last time, but he was hounded on the lead every step of the way, and Bankit worked out a perfect trip from off the pace. I’ll be a little surprised if Bankit is quite as effective going the demanding 1 1/8 miles distance at Saratoga. Not That Brady has just been in awesome form for most of 2019, with his only truly poor performance coming in the Gotham. He ran an excellent race behind Travers entrant Looking at Bikinis two back after setting a fast pace and he was arguably best against last time. His recent TimeformUS Speed Figures, all between 118 and 122, simply tower over this field. As long as he survives what figures to be another honest pace, I think he’s going to find himself in the winner’s circle. The main threat this time may be Just Right, since I think he wants the added ground more than his other New York Derby rivals. He also figures to work out a good trip stalking outside. The other contenders would be best used underneath, including Bankit and Doups Point.