by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 8 - 7 - 9
Race 2:   1 - 4 - 2 - 1A - 5
Race 3:   7 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 4:   3 - 7 - 10 - 8
Race 5:   7 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 6:   1 - 6 - 2 - 9
Race 7:   4 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 8:   2 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 9:   1 - 3 - 9 - 2
Race 10:   6 - 12 - 10 - 4
Race 11:   5 - 14 - 12 - 9

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 1: PIPES (#3)
In what is merely a coincidence, I’m going to hope that Gary Contessa has a strong showing today, as he’s sending out live runners in a number of these races and I’ve picked four of them throughout the day. Among the runners with experience in this opener, I want to bet Pipes. This colt was meant for turf in his debut but was left in to participate when the race was transferred to dirt. All things considered, I thought he ran well to close for third in a race that was otherwise dominated on the front end. While he got over the sloppy, sealed track well enough, this colt has a pedigree and way of moving that suggests he will be better suited to turf. While there is not overwhelming grass pedigree in the first generation of this female family, there is some stemming from his second dam Shy Greeting, and Exchange Rate is a perfectly capable turf influence. Furthermore, this horse seemed to really get over the synthetic track during the OBS Sale back in April, displaying a quick, turfy action as he sped a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds. If he steps forward with the surface switch, I believe he can beat this group. Some of his primary competitors may be first time starters, but none of them are that appealing to me. Linda Rice sends out a pair, but both appear bred to handle longer distances and she’s not necessarily known for having them ready to fire first time out. Wicked Grin has a right to handle turf for Christophe Clement, who can be dangerous in these situations, but the barn has been fairly quiet at this meet.
 

RACE 2: WUSHU WARRIOR (#1)
H Man is clearly the horse to beat off the claim by Rudy Rodriguez. He’s run the fastest speed figures and he figures to sit a good trip stalking early fractions that the Pace Projector indicates will be a fast. While he did get the job done against cheaper foes last time, he’s now back at the N1X level where he has been struggling to break through for well over a year. Rudy does a good job, but he’s getting this horse from a trainer who has done very well at Saratoga over the years. I’m not sure that we’ll see improvement out of this horse and I get the sense that he’s going to be an underlay. Beyond the favorite, this race looks wide open, but I see one runner that may outrun his odds. Wushu Warrior has been running in claiming races, but he has nevertheless been subtly improving over the past few months. I was encouraged by his maiden win back in April when he overcame a brutal trip to get the job done. I can excuse his sloppy track loss, and he was overmatched against American Power next time. I thought he ran pretty well to win two back over Blinded Vision, who returned to win here last week. Last time, he was again pitted against American Power along with a slew of other 3-year-olds that would all be short prices in this spot. He finished fifth, but he hung in gamely until fading at the very end. Chris Englehart typically places his horses very well at this meet, and I think he’s wise to move this runner back into a weaker New York-bred spot. He’s part of a coupled entry, which I don’t love, but stablemate It’s Hot Out doesn’t figure to attract too much additional money and I don’t think he’s impossible either.
 

RACE 4: SHAK’S HIDDEN GEM (#3)
It would be wise to watch the board in this spot to see how much money first time starter Mensa Member takes. They paid $200,000 for this daughter of Flatter, who also possesses an attractive damside pedigree. While more of her siblings handled dirt well, she is a half-sister to 4-time turf winner Forever in Love. Chad Brown is dangerous in these spots, but reports are that this filly has not trained very forwardly in the mornings on dirt. I’m more interested in those with experience. The most logical filly to consider is Shady Shady Shady, who finished a closing second in her debut on opening day. While she ran well that day for a barn that isn’t known for its worth with firsters, that race was falling apart at the end and she just picked up pieces. The winner Drynachan returned to run poorly against stakes company next time out, which has me doubting the overall quality of that field. I prefer Shak’s Hidden Gem, especially given the added ground of this race. This filly actually broke fine in her debut for Gary Contessa, but got repeatedly shuffled back down the backstretch and wound up last for the run around the far turn. From there, she swung out for the drive and actually closed well to get up fourth while well clear of the rest of the field. It’s a positive sign to see that the runner-up returned to win. Furthermore, I think this is a filly that will improve with distance, given that her dam was best going long on the dirt. The stamina-building 7-furlong workout on July 27 – prior to her debut – suggests that they may have been pointing for a race like this all along.
 

RACE 6: COLONEL TOM (#1)
Frisky Magician is obviously the most accomplished horse in this race, and he will win if he’s allowed to put forth his optimal performance. However, all of that was also true last time, and he still fell a nose shy of victory. Any of the tactical speed that this horse once possessed appears to be gone, so Jose Ortiz will likely ride him as a deep closer once again. While he is the most likely winner, I think it’s dangerous to rely too heavily on horses with his running style, given all of the variables at play for closers in turf sprints. Banana Thief defeated him last time, but I would prefer Frisky Magician on this occasion. Banana Thief was able to make a clear late run outside last time whereas Frisky Magician had to squeeze through inside. That said, I want to focus on some options with more tactical speed. Polar Axis is a horse that you need to use. He’s very fast in the early going and figures to clear off from this field unless someone else is dead-set on making the front. He’s stepped up to face tougher open allowance company recently, but now he’s dropping back to a level at which he’s been successful in the past. This distance is perfect for him. I’m definitely using him, but I prefer the runner just to his inside. Colonel Tom needs another aggressive ride from Dylan Davis, who did a good job of sending this horse to the lead from a rail post position last time. While he got the 7 furlongs that day, he was getting a bit tired at the end, so I don’t mind this cutback to a shorter trip. This colt showed a ton of potential when he broke his maiden last November and I feel that he’s slowly been working his way back into top form since then. His last win was a step in the right direction and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another improved effort here.
 

RACE 9: PURELY LUCKY (#1)
Most of the main players in this race are exiting the New York Oaks at Finger Lakes. While a few horses didn’t have great trips in that spot, I still can’t argue with anyone who asserts that Split Time was just superior to that group. It appeared that many of her rivals just couldn’t get the distance as they faded in the final furlong, and she was one of the only fillies that was striding out powerfully across the wire. She’s been the picture of consistency in her 7-start career and she clearly knows how to get her nose down on the wire first. If she works out a decent trip, I think she’s going to be awfully tough to beat. The only filly that I think has a chance to beat her is Purely Lucky, who switches back to the dirt. It’s possible that this filly is strictly a turf horse, but I’m intrigued by this surface switch because she may just be vastly improved now. She was nothing special when she last tried dirt over the winter, and she didn’t run quite as badly as the final margins would suggest in her pair of losses to English Soul. However, since then she has completely turned her form around. She apparently loved the stretch-out in distance two back when she beat a solid allowance field, and she followed that up with a surprisingly strong effort against open company going 1 1/4 miles. Her connections showed great confidence that day as they actually skipped her N2X NY-bred allowance condition to run in that race, and they’re again getting ambitious here. She clearly possesses a ton of stamina, and that should come in handy as long as she handles the dirt. Her recent workouts suggest that such an idea isn’t so far-fetched, as she has been working very well. Her August 11 drill in particular is noteworthy, merely for the fact that it was in company with Monomoy Girl, and Purely Lucky held her own.
 

RACE 11: CROSS MULTIPLY (#5)
I’ll complete my quartet of Gary Contessa-trained selections by taking a shot with Cross Multiply in this finale. This colt has significantly improved in recent months, and I think he’s now getting back to a more appropriate distance on the turf. I know that it might look like he prefers routes off his efforts two and three back, but I actually think he ran well despite being asked to negotiate distances that are too far for him. That was especially true on July 8, when he made the first move into a taxing pace and still held on for second in a race that was falling apart late. While I’m not that concerned about his most recent effort on dirt, it at least confirms that he’s in very good form right now, as that represented a significant improvement on his only other main track performance. Joel Rosario is exactly the kind of rider you want for a horse like this in a turf sprint, and it does appear that there is some pace for him to close into. I’m primarily using him with The Mason Factor, who ran very well within the contest of the June 21 race, attacking a fast pace before battling on gamely to the wire. I’ll also back up with the other likely favorites who are exiting the Aug. 1 race at this level – Brockmoninoff, Causeforcelebration, and Wild William.