PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 2:   3 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 3:   2 - 5
Race 4:   3 - 5 - 4 - 7
Race 5:   3 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 6:   5 - 12 - 4 - 9
Race 7:   8 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 8:   7 - 8 - 3 - 9
Race 9:   3 - 9 - 5 - 2
Race 10:   4 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 11:   9 - 13 - 6 - 1

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: EYE LUV LULU (#3)
Build to Suit is the horse to beat off his decisive win here last month as he now steps up to face a tougher group. He is by no means slow in the early going, but he’s not a horse that projects to be right up on the lead, and there is very little speed in this race. The Pace Projector is predicting that Eye Luv Lulu will be sharing the lead early in a situation favoring the front-runner. I know that it seems like he’s been off form in recent races, but he’s had legitimate excuses in recent starts. Two back, he found a mile to be too far for him, and last time he found himself chasing a fast pace against some of the top New York-breds in the division. He’s getting needed class relief here and can lead this field wire to wire.

RACE 5: AVEENU MALCAINU (#3)
He’s not going to be much of a price in this spot, but I’m a big fan of Aveenu Malcainu. Based on his debut, he has a real chance to turn into a talented New York-bred stakes runner. That day, he couldn’t keep up in the early going, but launched a prolonged bid from mid-pack to get up for the win over today’s rival Smokin Platinum. He behaves like a horse that should really appreciate stretching out in distance. Over the past five years, Jeremiah Englehart is 3 for 11 ($2.19 ROI) with second-time starters that won their debuts, and seven horses in that sample finished in the money, two of them in stakes races.

RACE 6: NEW CANAAN (#5) / HARDLY MATE (#12)
The two horses with the best recent form are Wish Upon and Hope’s Roar, but I prefer some of the more lightly raced options. One of those is Hardly Mate, who ran very well in her debut at Tampa back in December. She was chasing the pace three wide in a race that completely fell apart in the late stages. The layoff is a question, but Roy Lerman points for this meet. I’ll use her, but my top pick is New Canaan. This filly ran well in her debut going a sprint distance, finishing a closing sixth after racing three to four wide on the turn. She’s bred to stretch out in distance since her dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning routers Prospect Park and Silent Sighs. Furthermore, she should have gotten some needed fitness out of that first start since she didn’t have a published workout for over a month prior to that race.

RACE 8: NEWPORT BREEZE (#7)
The horse to beat is I Still Miss You, who ran well in all of her starts at Belmont, winning the Astoria against open company before losing to Pure Silver, who returned to dominate the Grade 2 Adirondack. I respect her, but I think she faces some talented fresh faces here. The runner that intrigues me is Newport Breeze, who ships in from California for Peter Eurton. She hasn’t quite run fast enough, but she’s kept good company in her two starts. The winner of her debut returned to dominate the Grade 2 Sorrento, and the horse that she beat to win her maiden last time came back to finish second in the Sorrento. I liked the grit that this filly showed that day, turning back multiple challenges to hang on for the win.

RACE 9: GET JETS (#3)
It’s never easy to predict how the pace will shape up in turf routes at Saratoga, but you have to imagine that the early tempo of this race will be pretty quick. Black Tide, King Kreesa, Macagone, and Fox Rules are all likely to go out toward the front – all have Early Pace Ratings in excess of 120. Naturally, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, so I think this could set up for a closer. Offering Plan would be awfully dangerous if he runs back to his effort in the Kingston two back. However, I didn’t love his last effort, and would rather take Get Jets out of that race. They both had somewhat uncomfortable trips rallying from the back of the pack. That said, I liked the way Get Jets finished that race after altering course late, and believe he’s coming into this in top form.

RACE 11: FROST PROOF (#9)
This finale is pretty wide open, but I have to take a shot with Frost Proof, who got a crazy trip in his turf debut last time. Taking to the back of the pack by Pablo Fragoso in the early going, he proceeded to launch a premature backstretch move, going all the way up to stalk the leaders by the time they ran around the far turn. Unsurprisingly, he came up empty late, but he at least showed that he handles this surface. His dam was second in a pair of turf sprints, so this cutback should agree with him. He also gets a rider upgrade to Rajiv Maragh.