PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 2:   4 - 3 - 7 - 1A
Race 3:   4 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 4:   4 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 5:   2 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 6:   3 - 11 - 2 - 7
Race 7:   1 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 8:   6 - 1 - 12
Race 9:   3 - 7 - 12 - 10
Race 10:   10 - 2 - 3
Race 11:   7 - 11 - 3 - 10

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: MIRACLE (#5)

Maple Leaf Mel (#3) figures to be a heavy favorite as she tries to take her career record to 2-for-2 in this Seeking the Ante. She was quite impressive in her debut, winning by 5 lengths under minimal urging. However, she’s wheeling back in just 16 days off that performance and is catching a much tougher field. Her 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the highest in this field, but she may have been somewhat aided by a speed bias. The good news is that Jeremiah Englehart has excellent stats with these types of runners. Some will look to the rail-drawn Song Parody (#1) as the alternative, but I want no part of this filly. She was a $25k yearling purchase who won her debut impressively and subsequently sold at the Horses of Racing Age sale for $360k. I don’t like the way she’s been working since having been transferred to new connections, as she’s had trouble keeping up with the colt Acoustic Ave, who runs in the Funny Cide later. I’m far more interested in Miracle (#5), who also broke her maiden decisively. There have been some signs that she actually beat a decent field that despite the modest 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I like the way she’s trained since then, turning in a particularly impressive drill two weeks ago. I won’t be surprised when she takes a step forward, as Rodolphe Brisset is 3 for 12 (25%) with 6 second-place finishes (75% in the exacta) with second time starters that won their debuts over the past 5 years.

WIN: #5 Miracle, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 2: FUNNY HOW (#4)

Photon (#3) is perhaps the horse to beat off her runner-up finish at this level last time. She showed improved tactical speed that day, obviously benefiting from her debut experience. She just ran into a horse that’s better than her in winner Truancy. I certainly prefer her to Voleuse (#1A), who didn’t have a major excuse last time and just lacks the upside of some others in here. My top pick is Funny How (#4). This filly finished ahead of Photon in their debut back on July 9 at Belmont. I thought this Ray Handal trainee actually ran pretty well that day as she had to be used to maintain position early and stayed on admirably in a race that was falling apart late. She’s bred to be a good one as a half-sister to multiple stakes winner Funny Guy and solid allowance type Three Jokers. Ray Handal is 10 for 35 (29%, $3.74 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. The other horse that interests me a bit is Laochi (#7). She has to overcome a layoff, but she’s shown some ability on occasion and is drawn well outside for a filly who sometimes breaks slowly.

WIN: #4 Funny How, at 2-1 or greater
USE: 3,7

RACE 7: ACOUSTIC AVE. (#1)

Andiamo a Firenze (#5), the younger three-quarter brother to Grade 1 winner Firenze Fire figures to go off as a heavy favorite in this Funny Cide. He was rumored to be a good one on debut and did not disappoint, blasting out of the gate to establish command before sailing clear in the stretch under minimal urging. He got a real class test when thrown in a tough spot in the Grade 3 Sanford and put in another fine effort. He sat just off a solid pace and simply got leg weary in the final furlong. My problem is that I don’t love the stretch-out in distance for him, especially in a race that appears to feature plenty of other speed. Some may try to pick him up late with the closer Donegal Surges (#4), but that debut winner needs to get significantly faster in his second start. I’m most interested in Acoustic Ave. (#1) as the alternative to the favorite. He’s another who took plenty of money on debut and delivered, setting a fast pace before drawing off through the lane. He earned a 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, upgraded a bit due to the fast pace. That’s comparable with what the favorite has accomplished, and I think this guy is more likely to take a step forward. He’s been working that way, besting stablemate Song Parody (Race 1 today) in his recent drills for this. This owner/trainer combination has won this race with the likes of Senbei and City Man in recent years, and I think they may have another Funny Cide winner in the barn after Friday.

WIN: #1 Acoustic Ave, at 9-5 or greater