by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 6 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 3 - 9
Race 3: 3 - 1 - 2 - 7
Race 4: 7 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 5: 5 - 2 - 7 - 9
Race 6: 8 - 5 - 9 - 1
Race 7: 1 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 8: 1 - 3 - 4 - 9
Race 9: 4 - 5 - 6 - 11
Race 10: 1 - 9 - 6 - 4
RACE 2: MONEY PURSE (#4)
There are many contenders in this wide-open maiden-claiming race. I suppose Miss Kapinator is going to take money as she drops in for a tag for the first time. Todd Pletcher actually has outstanding numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is 7 for 10 (70 percent, $4.27 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of 180 days or longer and dropping from maiden special weight to maiden-claiming company on dirt. Timeless Beauty ran some of the fastest races last winter, but she really improved going a mile, and now she’s dropping off the layoff. The horse who interests me most is Money Purse. This filly didn’t show much when under the care of the legendary Leroy Jolley as a 2-year-old, but she appears to have woken up a bit since getting transferred to Brian Lynch. They tried turf a couple of times, but dirt appears to be her preferred surface. I thought she ran pretty well over a sloppy track three back at Keeneland, and there’s plenty of rain in the forecast for Friday. Last time out, she was supposed to win as the 2-5 favorite, but I thought she wasn’t given her best chance that day. Dylan Davis appeared to overthink that last ride, as he unwisely took her off the pace in a race that featured plenty of cheap speed. The last thing you want to have happen in a $20,000 maiden claimer is to get mired in behind a bunch of tiring, slower horses, and that’s exactly what happened to this filly. She appeared to brush the rail when coming through a tight spot on the turn and just could never really pick up momentum. This time, Davis figures to be more aggressive, and I think she’s good enough to take this group.
RACE 4: ZEVEN (#7)
I’m pretty tired of all of the familiar faces in this $12,500 claimer. I suppose Midnight Bounty and Arewehavingfunyet are the two horses to beat, but they’re hardly formidable. Midnight Bounty has been defeated by a number of today’s rivals in her recent starts and she’s no guarantee to handle 9 furlongs. Arewehavingfunyet also has some stamina questions to answer, and her current form is also somewhat of a concern give her lackluster recent effort behind Patriotic Endeavor. I’m not thrilled with these mares, so I’m taking a shot against them with Zeven. There is not much early speed in this field, and the Pace Projector indicates that she will be up front in a situation favored the leader. She earned a competitive speed figure going two turns at Monmouth two back when she actually got an aggressive ride. Last time, she was inexplicably rated back in last place in the early going, which is not her style, and she actually did well to get up for second over a racetrack that may not have been conducive to that running style. Furthermore, she was just facing better horses that day, as Jump Ruler has turned into a solid allowance filly and third place finisher Indian Chaser returned to win, improving her Beyer Speed Figure by 16 points. Ricardo Santana, Jr. has done well be being aggressive with horses like this and I think she’s going to get the right ride this time.
RACE 8: MEISTERMIND (#1)
There are many contenders in this race, but none of them looks to have a significant edge. It’s possible that Proven Reserves will go off as the favorite, as he showed a ton of ability when winning his debut by more than six lengths at Aqueduct. The speed figure that he earned that day makes him good enough to beat this field. His second start was surprisingly flat, but it’s possible that racing so late into the evening may not have agreed with him, as that was the final race on a lengthy Belmont Stakes card. Chad Brown adds blinkers for this stretch-out around two turns. I also want to use Holland Park, a very well-bred colt who finally appears to be figuring things out. He ran some pretty slow races over the winter, but he took a big step forward in the Federico Tesio last time despite getting into trouble early in that race. The concern with him is not the distance but rather the three-month layoff heading into this race. I’m taking a shot with Meistermind, who figures to be a decent price. This colt also is bred to be a top runner, as a half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird and Pacific Classic winner Dullahan. Clearly, he’s bred to run all day, and he indicated that added distance was exactly what he needed when winning his maiden last time out at Churchill Downs. That win may have appeared to come out of nowhere, but it was his second start off a layoff, and he had shown some potential as a 2- year-old. The speed figure came back fast, and enough horses have done well out of that race to suggest it’s pretty valid. Meistermind showed improved speed in that spot, and he figures to do the same from his inside post here under the hot Ricardo Santana Jr.
RACE 9: RAGING BULL (#4)
Assuming this race stays on turf, the two runners likely to attract the bulk of the play are Gidu and Raging Bull. The Todd Pletcher-trained son of Frankel actually gave a solid account of himself when finished a close sixth in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Ascot in June. However, now he’s back in the U.S. running just 6 weeks later, and I wonder if this taxing schedule is going to catch up with him. Furthermore, he’s unproven going farther than a mile and there is other speed for him to deal with in this spot. I’m against him. I strongly prefer Raging Bull, who has been very impressive thus far in his short career. He beat an excellent maiden field at Keeneland in April over a turf course that was less than firm, and he followed that up with a visually impressive score on Belmont Stakes weekend. He disappointed as the 2-5 favorite last time in the Manila, but that race did not set up for him, as Up the Ante got to walk along the front end, and that foe is very dangerous when he gets loose. I’m intrigued by this Chad Brown runners stretching back out around two turns, especially since he figures to get some pace in this spot. Another horse that intrigues me at a better price is Ride a Comet, who has been impressive winning all of his turf starts. He’s getting a class test here, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s up to the task. I also would upgrade Westerland, especially if the turf comes up yielding or soft.
RACE 10: FOUR FREEDOMS (#1)
Regalian is the horse to beat as he drops off the claim for trainer Chris Englehart. This is a pretty steep step down in class, but owner Mike Repole likes to win races at Saratoga, so the barn is probably just placing this runner at a level at which he has a strong chance to win. I’m not against him, but I do think he faces a legitimate foe in Florida shipper Four Freedoms. This 3-year-old has been facing slightly softer company in his recent starts, but I think you can make a strong case that he’s improving. He’s started to run some fastest speed figures in recent months, and his last start was undoubtedly his best yet. The early pace of that 6 1/2 furlong race was very fast, indicated by red color-coded pace figures in TimeformUS PPs. Four Freedoms put away the speedster that he was chasing, as that runner faded to finish far back, and he gamely fought on all the way to the wire while just failing to hold off a horse that rallied from the back of the pack. Some may be hesitant to take out of town connections at this elite meet, but Marcus Vitali is actually 4 for 14 (29 percent, $2.82 ROI) in dirt races at NYRA over the past five years. It’s a good sign to see a live rider like Jose Ortiz take the mount.