by David Aragona
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Race 1: 7 - 8 - 4 - 5
Race 2: 3 - 4 - 8 - 2
Race 3: 4 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 4: 6 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 5: 4 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 6: 7 - 8 - 9 - 4
Race 7: 3 - 6 - 1 - 8
Race 8: 11 - 2 - 7 - 9
Race 9: 2 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 10: 3 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 11: 10 - 6 - 8 - 4
RACE 1: FINANCIALSTABILITY (#7)
Freaky Styley overcame a troubled start to make an eye-catching late move in a race that was otherwise dominated towards the front end last time. This colt raced greenly in the early going and did well to respond to encouragement late at a point when other horses might have thrown in the towel. His pedigree leans a bit more towards turf, but he ran well enough on the main track first time out to justify continuing on this surface. Jorge Abreu is 3 for 7 (43%, $1.85 ROI) with second-time-starting maidens on the dirt over 5 years, so he has aright to move forward. He’s formidable, but I prefer the other second time starter exiting that July 24 maiden event. Financialstability didn’t take much money as the “other Chad Brown” runner in that race, and he proved no match for his winning stablemate. However, I thought he ran in spots that day and showed some hints of ability. He had to be hustled along in the early stages to keep up, but he was in the bridle coming to the quarter pole, at which point he took a hard bump when attempting to angle off the rail. Ortiz guided him back inside thereafter and rode him tentatively through the last sixteenth. This horse had logged 42 workouts prior to his debut, so there's more seasoning here than is apparent. He figures to show improved speed this time and would be dangerous with any kind of forward move. I prefer him as the likely second choice.
RACE 4: TIZ HE THE ONE (#6)
Wonderful Light is a difficult horse to assess as he makes his third start off a layoff while trying to get his career back on track as a 5-year-old. He once possessed the kind of talent that would make you think stakes were in his future. However, a series of setbacks and losses at short prices have gotten him stuck trying to race through his allowance conditions. He got the job done as the favorite at Laurel last time, but he wasn’t beating a field as strong as this one and the speed figure was merely mediocre for the level. Michelle Nevin’s horses do well when they can race into fitness, but this horse may just be past his prime at this point. Another runner trying to get back on track is Classic Rock, who makes his first start off a 14-month layoff. He had gotten very good two winters ago, reeling off three consecutive victories at Gulfstream while earning some impressive TimeformUS Speed Figures. However, he was taken apart by X Y Jet in the 2018 Smile Sprint and hasn’t been seen since. While I don’t fully trust him off the layoff, his speed could play quite well in this field. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. Yet I want to go in a different direction with Tiz He the One. This gelding is now back with Linda Rice after doing quite well for the Jeremiah Englehart barn at Laurel. It is a little bit of a concern that this horse has only run well at Laurel, but I think it’s meaningful that Rice is bringing him back in this spot going 6 furlongs. Perhaps it’s just a prep, but I believe going one turn is the key to this horse. If you’re concerned that he may not possess the speed to beat these, consider how fast he came home in that one-mile race back in November. He figures to be perched just off the speeds inside of him and I think he can close them down in the lane.
RACE 7: LEAVEUWITHASMILE (#3)
Hallajoori is the kind of Steve Asmussen runner who should be expected to take a step forward in her second start. This filly did well to hang on for third in her debut after getting overhauled by the impressive winner Figure of Speech at the head of the lane. Interestingly, she started in that race without Lasix, which is not a typical move for Asmussen. This barn is 9 for 27 (33%, $2.12 ROI) with 2-year-old second time starting maidens in dirt sprints at Saratoga over the past 5 years. She figures to show speed again, but she could be in trouble if fellow second time starter Leaveuwithasmile flashes the speed that she displayed in her turf sprint debut. This grey filly rocketed out of the gate and threw down some fast opening splits before drifting through the lane while fading. This barn is not afraid to make a surface switch second time out, and I would wonder if this one was meant for dirt all along, given her pedigree. While we don’t yet know much about Conveyance as a sire, the dam’s side of this family is all dirt influences. Her dam is a half-sister to dirt stakes-placed filly Newport Breeze and dirt router Doups Point. She was arguably facing a tougher field on turf last time, and I think she lands in a good spot for her second start. I prefer these to the first time starters, none of which seem to be particularly live.
RACE 8: HIT A PROVISIONAL (#11)
The two major players in this spot are A Little Faith and Chiclet’s Dream, who finished a nose apart when battling for second in that Aug. 4 race at this level. Chiclet’s Dream was a disappointment that day, since she was bet down to 6-5 and was just somewhat dull in the lane. She did get a fairly wide trip, but it’s not as if A Little Faith was saving a ton of ground. I prefer A Little Faith, who stepped forward nicely out of her sprint debut and drew a much better post position for this second attempt at a route distance. However, this is no two-horserace. I would also consider the 3-year-old Niko’s Dream, who is moving up in class despite coming out of stakes company. She lost to Kid Is Frosty twice, but she was compromised by circumstances in each of those races. She figures to get more pace to close into this time with some sprinters stretching out. I’m using all of these in some capacity, but my top pick is Hit a Provisional. This New York-bred returned from a lengthy layoff on July 14 to finish a game second going a demanding 9 furlongs. She arguably ran the best race that day, as s he dueled a rival into defeat through honest early fractions, opened up a lead in midstretch, and then gamely battled back when challenged late. Ignore the dirt race last time since that’s not her preferred surface. Her tactical speed should ensure that she works out another good trip. As long as she repeats that performance two back, I think she has a big chance to take down this field.
RACE 11: SHORT POUR (#10)
This second division of the New York-bred allowance race that goes as the 8th did not come up nearly as strong as its counterpart. In this heat, Flush is clearly the horse to beat on the slight turnback to a mile. She had shown some ability and speed on dirt at the start of her career, but she’s obviously improved with the switch to turf since returning this summer. She benefited from front-running tactics in her turf debut two back, but I like the versatility she showed in that third place finish last time, as she rated kindly and stayed on well in the stretch. The shorter distance should suit her, but she’s going to be a short price and I don’t think she brings an insurmountable advantage into this spot. I’m taking a shot against her with Short Pour. Things just have yet to go right for this filly in her first two starts back from the layoff. She had to alter course in traffic when rallying in her return two back, costing her valuable momentum at the end of the race. Then last time she arguably should have won, as she had nowhere to go when held up in traffic in midstretch. I know her connections have been sprinting her, but I’ve always felt that she prefers slightly longer distances, between 7 furlongs and a mile. We’ll see if she can handle the two turns, but she should have a bit more speed on the stretch-out and I think she’s a lot better than her recent form indicates.