by David Aragona
Race 1: 1 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 2: 3 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 3: 7 - 3 - 4 - 1A
Race 4: 6 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 5: 6 - 4 - 8 - 5
Race 6: 3 - 8 - 2 - 7
Race 7: 6 - 8 - 7 - 5
Race 8: 7 - 10 - 8 - 4
Race 9: 8 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 10: 2 - 5 - 9 - 4
RACE 2: BANKER’S ISLAND (#3)
Chad Brown will be heavily favored to complete the early double, as his Chiclet’s Dream is a prohibitive favorite in the first, and Apartfromthecrowd figures to be bet down to odds-on status in this spot. I’m not going to argue with anyone who asserts that Apartfromthecrowd is just better than this field, as he has run against significantly tougher company in all of his races. He returned on the turf at Monmouth last time, but he’s arguably been better on the dirt. Yet, given those solid performances, it seems a bit hasty for the connections to completely give up on this once-promising runner. I think it’s also worth noting that a few of his faster speed figures from the winter of 2017 were aided by favorable track profiles. I’m always a little wary of taking closers that are dropping down like this and I think this could be a vulnerable favorite. If I’m going to beat this horse, I want to do it on the front end, so I’m taking a shot with the speedy Banker’s Island. I thought this gelding’s performance going this distance last time was actually bit better than it appears. Manny Franco sent him to the front from the outside post position that day, but then he allowed him to drop back in behind horses on the backstretch. From there, he ended up getting shuffled back on the turn behind tiring runners, yet he actually finished up decently once in the clear late. He strikes me as a horse that wants to go this distance, and I like that he’s drawn inside of his main pace rival Playwright.
RACE 5: STELLAR AGENT (#6)
Quiet Company and Paradise Returned were intended to debut over this surface on July 26, and they were both left in when the race was rained off. Quiet Company ran the better race that day, which isn’t totally surprising given her versatile pedigree. She should be just fine switching to grass, but Paradise Returned figures to take a bigger step forward, as her pedigree is strongly geared toward turf. Her dam has produced three turf winners, and she’s by solid turf sire Speightstown. I’m using both of these fillies, but there are some interesting first-time starters to consider. Lady Grace figures to attract plenty of support off a solid work tab. Her best half-sibling is dirt Grade 1 winner Sis City, but she’s also a half-sister to three turf winners, and she’s by top turf-sprint sire Kantharos. She looked good working a furlong in 10 seconds flat at the OBS sale, and her more recent morning drills have been impressive. She’s definitely on my tickets, but the one who interests me, potentially at a better price, is Stellar Agent. This filly also has enough turf pedigree as a daughter of More Than Ready out of a dam who has produced a turf winner. Her sales work wasn’t quite as quick as that of Lady Grace, but she also appears to be working well on the dirt for this race. Jorge Abreu has done very good work with his firsters in a limited sample.
RACE 8: NAPLES PRINCESS (#7)
I’m certainly not against Dancing All Night in this spot, as she has run well enough to win at this level in both Saratoga starts this summer. I thought she did well to duel her main pace rival into defeat before just getting run down by the closing winner on July 20. Then last time, she was hindered right from the start when she got squeezed back a few strides out of the gate. Considering that she prefers to race in a stalking position, she did well to make an early move into contention and still finish up decently. I’m definitely using her, but she’s going to be a short price once again, and there are some other fillies to consider who could get ignored in what is a fairly confusing race. There appears to be some pace in here, as Wisconsin Night and Catoria are sure to show speed from the inside and horses like Layla and Danyelli should be in hot pursuit. The Pace Projector is predicting that the race will feature a fast early pace, and that figures to benefit Naples Princess. Based on this filly’s two starts this year, she has returned as an improved 4-year-old. While she did get some pace to close into in her return two back, she nevertheless made a strong late bid despite having to come through on the rail. I thought her most recent start at Saratoga was an encouraging step forward off that, as she did well to close for third in a race that featured a fairly moderate early pace. The winner of that race, Dream Pauline, is a talented stakes-bound filly, and I’m not sure there are any others of that caliber in this race.
RACE 10: TIMELESS BEAUTY (#2)
I’m not giving out anything particularly clever here, but I just think Timeless Beauty is the right horse to take in this finale as the potential slight favorite. Robertino Diodoro does very well with his claims in these cheaper races. Over the past five years, he is 10 for 31 (32 percent, $2.22 ROI) first off the claim for tags of $25,000 or less in dirt sprints at NYRA. I thought this filly had some ability when she was racing last winter for Gary Contessa, but she seemed like a slower, lumbering type without much speed. In her first start back of the layoff, I was encouraged to see her show a lot more early speed in her return last time, and she still showed that kick in the lane. The stretch-out to 7 furlongs can only help her, and she figures to work out a good trip here if she shows that same tactical speed that was on display on Aug. 3. Her main rivals are Heaven’s Creation and Problem Solving, but neither one of those does much for me.