by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Now Available: Exclusive Saratoga betting strategies and unlimited TimeformUS PPs for the Saratoga meet!
On every Friday through Sunday at the Saratoga meet, get exclusive access to betting tickets for David Aragona’s Top Plays, including multi-race bet constructions and other exotic tickets. Also get exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more
Race 1: 6 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 7 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 3: 2 - 1 - 7 - 6
Race 4: 4 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 5: 11 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 6: 3 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 7: 3 - 5 - 7 - 8
Race 8: 11 - 4 - 10 - 9
Race 9: 5 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 10: 11 - 2 - 3 - 7
RACE 1: QUICK ON THE DRAW (#6)
Sand City is clearly the horse to beat off her solid second-place finish in an usually fast race at this level. I respect her, but I want to take a small shot against her with Quick on the Draw. She is making her first start against maiden-claiming company after a series of races against maiden special weights, and we saw how well that worked for Sand City in her prior start. Quick on the Draw's return race last time was not particularly inspiring, but that racetrack had taken a lot of rain, and she had a right not to care for the conditions. Her starts over the winter were actually fine, and I think she's better going shorter distances. H. James Bond gets an 86 Trainer Rating at Saratoga and a respectable 77 Trainer Rating with runners making their second starts back from a layoff.
RACE 3: SETHARY (#2)
Switzerland is probably going to be favored here as he makes his turf debut. While he does have a reasonable amount of pedigree for this surface switch, he's going to take money off his strong efforts on dirt. Perhaps he was meant for turf all along, but this move to grass seems a bit desperate after an uncharacteristically dull effort over a sloppy track back in May. I'll use him, but I think he's going to have a hard time defeating Sethary. I know this horse's first turf start came against maiden-claiming company, but that was nevertheless a pretty strong field, and the winner, Rate for Me, returned to win his next start with a similar speed figure. Furthermore, Sethary was much the best in that effort, as he contested a wickedly fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs) and did well to hang on for second.
RACE 5: TEAM COLORS (#11) / BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON (#2)
This is one of the toughest races on the card. I'm somewhat against the morning-line favorites. Diversify is one of the best New York-bred dirt horses in the country, but there's no guarantee he's going to be as effective on turf, even though he does have some dam-side pedigree for it. Forge is coming off a decisive win at Churchill Downs, but he got an honest pace to close into that day and is stepping up to face a tougher group. I want horses who are going to offer a bit of value, which is why I've made Team Colors my top selection. This is a tough post position going a mile on the inner turf, but I think this horse might be talented enough to overcome it. Four of his last five starts have come on dirt, but he's clearly a better turf horse. He was a solid second to subsequent Grade 1 winner American Patriot at Gulfstream when last racing on turf, and going back to 2015, he ran a series of strong turf races against some stiff competition. Finally, at an even bigger price, I also want to use Backsideofthemoon in my wagers. I've always been a fan of this horse, and his turf races are actually fine. Today, he gets a pretty significant rider upgrade to Manny Franco, and he's drawn well down inside.
RACE 8: LENSTAR (#11)
In another complicated affair, Petrov deserves to be favored off his solid fourth-place finish in the Woody Stephens Stakes two back. He couldn't quite get the distance last time in the Iowa Derby and now turns back once again. I'll definitely use him, but he'll need to show up with a top effort to beat this field. I'm trying to beat him with another 3-year-old. Lenstar has really improved in his recent starts for Nick Zito, registering some of the top TimeformUS Speed Figures in the field. He was a good third on the Belmont Stakes card and then was unlucky in the Long Branch Stakes at Monmouth, where he hit the rail as he battled back inside. I've always thought this horse was better going shorter distances, and now he turns back to an ideal seven-furlong trip. He's drawn well, outside of the other speeds, and should have no problem stalking the pace.
RACE 9: SNAP DECISION (#5)
Bricks and Mortar ran well to take the Manila Stakes with a late rush last time, but Big Handsome obviously should have won that race after being buried inside until midstretch. This time, Big Handsome should use his speed to his advantage, but he's still going to have to negotiate two turns and the longest distance he's ever encountered. I'll definitely use these runners, but I'm trying to beat them with Snap Decision. This Shug McGaughey trainee showed a ton of early promise on turf but has taken a little while to come around. He finally started to deliver two back, when he overcame a slow pace to finish second to Bricks and Mortar. Then, last time, he again rallied into a dawdling early tempo to easily run down a next-out winner. I think he's finally ready for this step up in class.