PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 2:   8 - 7 - 9 - 2
Race 3:   1 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 4:   2 - 3 - 1 - 7
Race 5:   8 - 7 - 10 - 5 (Dirt: 11 - 7 - 6 - 1X)
Race 6:   1 - 4 - 2 - 8 (Dirt: 8 - 10 - 4)
Race 7:   4 - 2 - 5 - 9
Race 8:   7 - 8 - 1 - 3
Race 9:   5 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 10:   3 - 6 - 4 - 2

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 3: THE OTHER CHAD (#2)

The short prices do very little for me in this maiden claimer. I suppose #3 Barone Marchis and #2 Devil Or Angel will take money, since they’re ridden by the Ortiz brothers. However, the former has not run particularly well since finishing second at this level at Aqueduct back in April. And Devil Or Angel was pretty disappointing last time after showing speed going 7 furlongs. Neither would be a huge surprise, but I didn’t want them as the favorites. #6 Capt’ Remington is a little more intriguing, since he’s been in strong form recently, but he has to transfer those efforts from Finger Lakes to a NYRA track. I wanted two alternatives. One of those is first time starter #5 Jay’stalker, who actually has pedigree. She’s a half-sister to multiple allowance winner Am Impazible from the family of New York-bred star Royal Posse. Bruce Levine can win with a firster and this one could be a price. My top pick is #1 The Other Chad, who simply faced much tougher in his lone start. lHe was actually traveling well on the turn and appeared to be in contention at the quarter pole. However, he was guided down to the inside and couldn’t make up any ground in a race that was dominated by horses moving in outside paths. He’s probably better than that result, and now he’s dropping into a far softer spot. I’m hoping that the presence of a low-profile rider ensures a fair price.

WIN: #1 The Other Chad, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 5

RACE 4: JEMOGRAPHY (#2)

I would peg #3 Tapizearance as the horse to beat in this race, though he and all of the other short prices in this field are hardly trustworthy options. Tapizearance obviously didn’t run well first off the claim for Gustavo Rodriguez last time, but he was also stepping up into a much tougher spot and never looked comfortable chasing wide. He’s now dropping down to a more appropriate class level and will be tough if he can recapture the consistent form that he displayed for Linda Rice. I prefer him to #5 Magnetron, who could take some money off a couple of competitive speed figures at Finger Lakes. Some may be attracted to him because he’s exiting a victory, but he’s really more of a cheaper claimer and I think he’d had to improve on his prior NYRA form. My top pick is #2 Jemography. Like the morning line favorite, he didn’t run well first off the claim for a new barn last time. However, he never was going to be competitive in the Saginaw Stakes. I think some may mistakenly assume that he’s just fallen apart for new trainer Ed DeLauro, but I wonder if he ran there just to make the race fill. It never looked like Eric Cancel really asked him for his best, as he was just eased to the wire once beaten. His prior form is solid and I think he’s a strong fit here if able to bounce back.

WIN: #2 Jemography, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 5: MY SWEET STORY (#8)

My primary opinion in this allowance marathon is that I want to play against #1 Shad Nation, who could go favored by default, going out for Christophe Clement with Irad Ortiz riding. Her recent form is not particularly compelling, and I don’t see any evidence that she’s crying out for more ground. Horses like #10 Hail To and #5 Rheaume make some sense after running well over a marathon distance at Belmont. However, I was more interested in some alternatives. My top pick is #8 My Sweet Story. This grey filly has slowly but surely been coming along. She achieved her maiden victory with a late rush from last-to-first at Colonial last summer, but still seemed like a work in progress. She returned from a lengthy layoff recently with a pair of improved efforts to kick off her 4-year-old campaign. Flown, the winner of her last, is a talented multiple stakes-placed performer. This stretch-out in distance shouldn’t be an issue for her, since she’s a full-sister to My Afleet, who won going this distance and was second in the 1 5/8 miles John's Call over this course. The other runner I want to use is #7 Good Measure. She’s only made one turf start during her career, coming last fall at Laurel. She actually ran better than the result might indicate that day, as she was never in a comfortable spot to rally, altering course in traffic while attempting to make up ground. Since then she’s shown some improvement on dirt, and has responded well to elongated distances in her last couple of starts. Clearly the stamina is there, and fondness for turf shouldn’t be an issue, as she's a half-sister to two grass winners.

WIN: #8 My Sweet Story, at 7-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #7 Good Measure, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 6: RUN FOR COVER (#1)

I wanted to steer clear of the runners with experience who could take money in this spot. #8 Stellar Lady earned a nice speed figure for her debut effort on the dirt in which she closed from the back of the pack to get up for second behind an impressive winner. However, now she’s switching to turf and it’s not as if she has some overwhelming grass pedigree. #2 Love Tank is a little more convincing as she ran well on the turf last time at Belmont Park. However, those turf sprints at Belmont generally come up a bit softer and I think she’s stepping up to meet some more intriguing first time starters in this race. #4 Aztec Nights has to be considered as she makes her debut for Wayne Catalano. This barn is a decent 5 for 28 (18%, $1.93 ROI) with first time starters on turf over 5 years, and 2 for 9 (22%, $2.16 ROI) in turf sprints. Her sire, Sharp Azteca, is off to a hot start with his first crop, winning with 7 for 27 first time starters, including a turf stakes winner. The dam was a 6-time turf winner, so the pedigree is there. My top pick is #1 Run for Cover. Mark Casse doesn’t have great stats in this situation, but I think this horse is a great fit for this spot. She’s by Get Stormy, who is an underrated turf sire, and the dam won 3 times on this surface. She looked like she really took to grass in that June 10 turf workout at Palm Meadows and it appears that her recent turf drill over the Oklahoma course was a distinct improvement on her recent dirt drills. The rail drawn isn’t ideal, but she figures to be a square price.

WIN: #1 Run for Cover, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 4

RACE 8: DOUBLE CLUTCH (#7)

There are a couple of short-priced runners who I think are vulnerable in this Hall of Fame. #3 Wit figures to attract some attention as he tries turf for the first time. He really doesn’t have much pedigree for this surface, but he did appear to work well over the grass in two recent drills on the Oklahoma turf course. I won’t be shocked if he runs well, but I wouldn’t want to take any kind of short price on him. As for Pletcher's other runner, there isn't that much speed in this field, so the scractch of Dowagiac Chief makes #1 Chanceux more dangerous. I have to upgrade him slightly. #9 Tiz the Bomb is another who could take money based on reputation. He did get a poor trip in the Belmont Derby last time, going very wide on the turns and steadying on the backstretch. However, I’m just not thrilled with his prior turf form and think he’s a little overrated. My top pick is #7 Double Clutch, who just seems like an inexperienced horse who still has upside. He ran well in his first two starts against maidens and made a huge jump to finish second in the Manila last time. He was still pretty far back at the top of the stretch that day, but finished well down the center of the course. He think he has more tactical speed than he showed last time and should work out a good stalking trip here. I also want to use #8 Celestial City, who closed well through traffic last time and is another who seems to be moving forward with every start.

WIN: #7 Double Clutch, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 8