by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 1 - 8 - 7
Race 2: 8 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 3: 7 - 6 - 9 - 8
Race 4: 6 - 7 - 5 - 8
Race 5: 6 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 6: 8 - 7 - 10 - 1
Race 7: 3 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 8: 5 - 1 - 2 - 8
Race 9: 10 - 9 - 6 - 2
Race 10: 2 - 5 - 10 - 1
RACE 1: SPIRITUAL KING (#6)
Klickitat is obviously supposed to win this race if he runs back to his recent efforts and no one else steps up. However, you have to acknowledge that this runner has some character flaws. He’s been in a number of races in which he’s been short prices in the past and he just can’t seem to get the job done. He’s been in a position to win each of his last two starts and has just squandered the lead in the last sixteenth of a mile. Perhaps he’s finally caught the right field today, but I think there’s one interesting alternative. Spiritual King obviously regressed first off the trainer switch to Greg Sacco last time, but he wanted no part of sprinting. He was outrun early and Irad Ortiz basically made no effort to motivate him in the stretch. He should be much more comfortable stretching out in distance and he figures to play out as the speed here based on his races at Gulfstream. He does need to improve to beat Klickitat, but that 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned in his second start back in March certainly puts him in the mix.
Win: 6
Exacta Box: 1,6
RACE 3: SEEKING REVENGE (#7)
After the scratch of Music of Life, the logical horses likely to attract the most money are Sun Summers and Bean Counter. Neither of them do that much for me at short prices. I prefer her to Sun Summers, who defeated a very weak field last time after riding a strong rail the entire way. Bean Counter was a disappointment at Gulfstream over the winter and had to work harder than expected to win a subpar starter allowance race last time. They’re both on my tickets somewhere, but I think the horse who figures to offer the best value is Seeking Revenge. This filly is a little inconsistent, but she ran a nice race behind subsequent stakes winner Civil Union on June 21, and then followed that up with a deceptively strong performance against a salty allowance field at Monmouth two back. She wanted no part of 1 1/2 miles last time, but now she’s dropping back to the right distance at a far more realistic class level. Trainer John Stephens isn’t that well known on this circuit, but he can certainly send out a live longshot.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 6,9
RACE 5: JENNEMILY (#6)
Kept True and Bridlewood Cat battled in the Correction back in March at Aqueduct. They both fell just short in a close finish, but they got very different trips. Bridlewood Cat had obvious trouble as she stumbled badly at the start and was forced to rally from the back of the pack. However, she did get a fast pace to close into, which helped her cause. Kept True, on the other hand, was chasing that fast pace and appeared to have the race won in midstretch before the closers swallowed her up late. It’s arguable as to which horse ran the better race, but now plenty of time has passed and both are landing in a tough spot off the layoff. I slightly prefer Kept True, who has generally been a bit more reliable, but I’m always a little concerned about this filly going a step beyond 6 furlongs. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead. While I don’t necessarily expect this race to feature a slow pace, forward position should be an advantage. Along those lines, I’m interested in Jennemily, who figures to sit a good stalking trip. I acknowledge that she looks a little cheaper than some of her main rivals, but she really improved over the winter since switching into the Steve Asmussen barn. She earned a legitimate 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that victory on Feb. 17, and I’m not convinced that she isn’t actually better going shorter distances. Her return victory at Laurel was solid, and I think it’s notable that the horse she dueled with in the early going returned to win at the same level with an improved speed figure.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,4,7
RACE 6: ARMY WIFE (#8)
There’s a lot going on in this intriguing maiden event for two-year-old turf sprinters. Mad Maddy is probably the horse to beat based on her second-place finish against males last time. However, that was her third consecutive runner-up finish, and now she’s being asked to come back on just 12 days’ rest. I'm using her, but there are some intriguing first time starters in the mix. Credit Enhancement goes out for Chad Brown and appears to be working decently on the dirt, though Main Track Only entrant Saratoga Commando has gotten the better of her. She figures to take money primarily due to the connections, but I won’t be surprised if she performs well. Yet the firster who interests me most is Army Wife. Mike Maker sends out this daughter of Declaration of War, whose progeny win 20% of their turf sprint starts. This filly doesn’t have any overwhelming turf pedigree on the dam’s side, but her dam is by Arch so there’s enough breeding there. I really liked this filly’s one-furlong workout in 10 1/5 seconds at the OBS Sale in June and it appears that she’s been working steadily for Mike Maker ever since then. Most recently she put forth an encouraging workout, going easier in company with 3-year-old turf stakes winner Bodecream on the dirt on August 1. Mike Maker’s runners sometimes need a start, but his runners have been firing at this meet and the fact that Jose Ortiz is named to ride is a good sign.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,7,10
RACE 8: GIACOSA (#5)
Likely favorite Silky Blue showed that turf was clearly her preferred surface in that determined maiden victory last time. She got collared by Fresco in midstretch, but gamely battled back inside of that rival to get her nose down on the wire first. She was subsequently flattered when Fresco returned to win a NY-bred stakes with a 90 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She tries two turns and winners for the first time, but it’s not as if she has to improve much on that maiden effort to defeat this subpar field for the level. Plus, Jorge Duarte is 5 for 21 (24%, $4.48 ROI) with last-out maiden winners. She’s a deserving favorite, but I am interested in one of her rivals at a better price. Giacosa looked like a filly who would benefit from experience when she made her debut last year and that has proven to be the case. She has taken a step forward with each start so far this year, most recently just missing third against a better field at this level three weeks ago. She deserves extra credit for passing horses in the stretch that day, as the early pace was on the slow side. Her regular rider Manny Franco sides with Silky Blue instead, but Tyler Gaffalione is an ample replacement. She figures to be right there if she continues progressing at this rate and this race is supposed to feature some pace for her close into. The one other horse I’d throw in at a square price is Tatterazzi. It seemed like she really improved over the winter at Tampa Bay Downs and this is an easier field than she faced last time when pitted against males.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,8 with 1,2,8
RACE 9: JACKIE’S WARRIOR (#10)
Steve Asmussen holds a strong hand in this Saratoga Special as he sends out a pair of short prices in Cazadero and Jackie’s Warrior. Cazadero is obviously the more accomplished of the two, as he comes off an impressive victory in the Grade 3 Bashford Manor. He has been the most precocious member of this group, but it remains to be seen if he can continue to maintain his edge as these 2-year-olds continue to develop through the summer. This is a much tougher field than he faced in the Bashford Manor and it’s not as if his sped figures make him some kind of standout in this field. I prefer his stablemate Jackie’s Warrior off his debut victory in June. This horse had to overcome a bit of adversity early in that race, as he got outrun to the early lead and had to briefly steady as the field broke for the far turn. Many first time starters would have gotten discouraged at that point, but this horse got right back in the bridle and finished off the race powerfully. He has trained exceptionally well since that race, actually outworking Cazadero in a drill on July 26. I like that he’s drawn outside of the other speeds in a race that could feature a quick pace and he just appears to be built like a horse that should handle the tougher fight that he’ll have on his hands. Yet I don’t want to dismiss the horse that Jackie’s Warrior defeated in his maiden win. Therideofalifetime stayed on well to be second that day and came out of that race to impressively break his maiden at Keeneland with a field-best 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He’s already handled the distance and has proven that he can rate off horses. Ignacio Correas has poor numbers with horses coming off maiden wins, but I won’t be shocked if this colt runs well again.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,6,7,9
Trifecta: 10 with 6,9 with 1,2,6,7,9