by David Aragona
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Race 1: 8 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 2: 1 - 2 - 8 - 3
Race 3: 4 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 4: 9 - 10 - 5 - 2
Race 5: 2 - 1 - 7 - 4
Race 6: 8 - 4 - 2 - 7
Race 7: 3 - 4 - 9 - 5
Race 8: 10 - 4 - 9 - 5
Race 9: 2 - 3 - 7 - 5
Race 10: 8 - 9 - 1 - 5
RACE 2: BURN AND TURN (#1)
Bebeau is a deserving favorite in this spot as he drops down to maiden claiming company from the maiden special weight level. Todd Pletcher has amazing statistics with this move. Over the past 5 years, he is 25 for 49 (51%, $2.65 ROI) with horses making this drop in dirt routes. The problem with Bebeau is that he really didn’t run very well in his only start over a fast track. He also hasn’t been seen since January and it doesn’t appear that he’s working with any great enthusiasm for this return. I’m using him defensively, but I have trouble getting behind this horse at a short price. Super Silver makes sense as an alternative, having already run well going this distance at this meet. He led for most of the way on July 19 before getting run down in the late stages, though he did benefit from a favorable pace setup that day. I prefer him to a plodder like Oso Negro, who was claimed away from Chad Brown. He ran on decently to be second last time, but he was never a threat to the winner and there wasn’t much behind him. I want to go in a different direction, so I’m taking a shot with Burn and Turn, who is part of a coupled entry with Sneads. Like the favorite, Burn and Turn is dropping in for a tag for the first time after making a couple of starts against tougher maiden special weight foes. He didn’t have ideal trips on either occasion, yet he still earned speed figures that almost put him in the mix here. He was off a bit slowly and then had to alter course when rallying through the stretch in his debut. Then last time, he was in a good spot between horses, but then got steadied and lost all momentum at a critical point on the far turn. As a son of Lookin at Lucky, he’s supposed to appreciate added ground, and I think he can do better getting on a fast track. He’s going to be a big price due to the connections and rider, yet he’s far from impossible.
RACE 5: SPINOFF (#2)
It’s not every day that you see a $1 million earner still eligible for an N2X allowance condition, but that’s the case with Lone Sailor. This 4- year-old has been on a steady diet of graded stakes (many of them Grade 1) since his juvenile season, so the class relief that he’s receiving in this spot should be welcome. While he might not even need his optimal effort to beat this field, he’s in the best form of his career right now. I wouldn’t be too deterred by a poor showing in the Suburban last time, since the moderate pace of that race worked against him. However, it is worth noting that there isn’t much speed in this field either, so he may have to overcome an unfavorable pace scenario to come away with the victory. I respect him, but I believe he faces a worthy opponent in Spinoff. Like Lone Sailor, Spinoff is getting some needed class relief as he drops back down to a non-stakes event for the first time since his third career start. He thrust himself into the Kentucky Derby picture with a strong runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby. The Run for the Roses did not go well, but he was hardly disgraced when losing the Belmont Stakes by just 3 lengths after a wide trip against a rail bias. I’m willing to ignore that turf experiment in the Belmont Derby since he’s not really bred for that surface. His most recent drill on August 2 (in blinkers) was highly impressive, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see John Velazquez make use of his tactical speed. The Pace Projector is predicting that he’ll be stalking Flowers for Lisa in a situation favoring the leaders, so he should get the jump on Lone Sailor turning into the lane.
RACE 7: SCARF IT DOWN (#3)
This race is quite odd in that 10 of the 11 entrants are making their first starts off the claim, including all of the major contenders. The horse with the best recent form is Shareholder Value, but he’s coming out of the two very strong claiming barns – those of Jason Servis and Linda Rice – and is moving into Mike Miceli’s stable. While his new trainer is certainly capable, it’s hard to trust the horse given the circumstances. Bolita Boyz, who finished second behind him last time, is moving into Steve Asmussen’s stable, and he has back races that would make him a contender. I’m using both, but I want horses coming out of different races. Eagle Pass possesses speed than can make him dangerous, but it’s unclear if he can be as effective sprinting. He’s done his best work going distances of a mile and beyond. Furthermore, it’s fair to wonder where he’s been for the past 2 1/2 months after getting claimed in the middle of May. I’m using all of these in some capacity, but my top pick is Scarf It Down. I have a feeling that this Chris Englehart acquisition may get somewhat ignored due to his cheap form and somewhat inferior speed figures. However, he has plenty of back class and has run well at this level – and over this surface – in the past. This horse spent much of the past year in the barn of trainer Oscar Barrera III, who isn’t exactly known for winning many races on the NYRA circuit. He showed some improvement off the claim by Dominick Schettino last time, closing well in a race that featured a slow pace and held together on the front end. This horse handles the 7 furlong distance, and it’s reasonable to assume that he can take another step forward for Englehart. This barn has been doing quite well so far at this Saratoga meet and this horse figures to be a square price.
RACE 8: VICTORINE (#10)
Two of the fillies likely to attract support in this spot are exiting the Big Dreyfus Stakes at Laurel last time. Malekeh finished ahead of Andinda Del Sur, though neither was able to threaten the impressive winner I’m So Fancy. Both should appreciate the slight cutback to a mile, though I slightly prefer Malakeh out of that spot. She made a middle move to challenge for the lead two back at Belmont going a distance that is probably too far for her. I don’t think we’ve yet seen the best that she has to offer through 3 U.S. starts, but it’s about time for her to start delivering on the potential that she showed in Germany last year. Andina Del Sur always gives a solid effort and should appreciate dropping down to allowance company after running in nothing but stakes over two seasons. Yet I think both of these fillies may be vulnerable to the returning Victorine. This French-bred filly didn’t make much of an impact in either U.S. start last season, but she may not have been able to put forth a top effort in either of those races. Both the Sands Point and the Pebbles were run over extremely soft courses that may not be her preference. She ran one of her worst races in France over heavy going, and runners that are sent to compete in this country often are looking for firm ground. She figures to get much more suitable going on Friday. Christophe Clement doesn’t have the best statistics off layoffs, but this filly may not have to be fully cranked to beat this field if she’s actually as good as that Prix de Psyche effort suggested she may be.
RACE 9: KILLYBEGS CAPTAIN (#2)
Pat On the Back has to be considered the horse to beat as he seeks to keep his unbeaten 2019 record intact. He’s probably at his best going about a furlong or more farther than this, but he’s versatile enough to throw down competitive speed figures going 6 furlongs, as he displayed two back in the Affirmed Success. Yet, whereas he received a very fast pace to close into on that occasion, he may not get such a favorable setup this time. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and he figures to be closing from the back of the pack. Furthermore, he had a minor setback after the Commentator that forced him to miss a little time, so it remains to be seen if he might need a start as he tries to get back on track. I’m using him prominently, but I prefer his main rival Killybegs Captain. This grey horse took a big step forward for John Terranova over the winter at Tampa, and he has sustained that form since returning to New York this spring. Yet he had never put forth the kind effort that we saw out of him in the John A. Nerud last time. He stumbled badly at the start that day and had to rush up into contention in a race where he was supposed to be one of the speeds. From there, he found himself chasing the classy Promises Fulfilled every step of the way. He did well to nearly hang on for second. I don’t believe he was ever in danger of beating the winner, but this horse was obviously ready to run a big race and he would have made the decision closer with a clean trip. He possesses the tactical sped to lead this field early, or perhaps stalk Skyler’s Scramjet, so a good trip should be forthcoming if he breaks well.