by David Aragona
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Race 1: 8 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 2: 13 - 1A - 7 - 9
Race 3: 6 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 4 - 9 - 3 - 7
Race 5: 4 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 6: 2 - 5 - 1/1A - 3
Race 7: 5 - 15 - 9 - 3
Race 8: 6 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 9: 8 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 10: 15 - 2 - 8 - 3
RACE 3: CONQUEST HARDCANDY (#6)
Complicit is the horse to beat as she makes her first start of 2019. She got things off to a great start last year, winning in her first two appearances before stepping up to this N2X level. She lost in her final three appearances last year, though she did have some excuses. She was hindered by a very slow pace in her lone start at Saratoga last summer, and then she was simply second-best to the very good Dolce Lilli in her return to Belmont. However, her final loss on October 24 was inexcusable, as she had dead aim at the leader and failed to get by despite being the 3-5 favorite. Chad Brown does well off layoffs, but she’s not meeting the easiest field in her return and she could be the favorite despite not having any significant speed figure edge over this group. Dream Passage will also attract support as she seeks her third win in a row. However, it’s difficult for horses to move through their open company conditions from New York-bred company, and I think she’s meeting significantly better rivals this time. Ferdinanda arguably owns the best last-out performance when she was second to Scottish Jig. Yet that’s the problem with her – she always finishes second. She’s dangerous, but I don’t fully trust her to get the job done. I’m instead taking a shot with Conquest Hardcandy. I know that she also rarely wins at just 3 for 26 lifetime, but she has nevertheless run quite well in almost all of her recent starts. That has especially been true since she returned to James Ryerson’s care this spring. It was no disgrace losing to top New York-bred mare Fifty Five in the Plenty Of Grace and she then ran well to be third in a fairly tough Monmouth allowance. Some may be deterred by her loss in the Eatontown last time, but she actually ran a lot better than it appears that day. She was dueling with eventual winner – and heavy favorite – Valedictorian in the early going while the pair drew well clear of the rest of the field. Conquest Hardcandy never had a chance of fending off a rival of that caliber, yet it’s not as if she completely fell apart in the lane. She’s getting significant class relief in this spot and she’s perfectly capable of racing effectively from a stalking position.
RACE 4: KAHRAMANI (#4)
With limited wagering opportunities remaining among the off-the-turf races, I’ll elevate this top pick to a top play. The horses likely to vie for favoritism in this spot are Soul P Say and Big Muddy. The former is turning back in distance off a series of route races against tougher company at Oaklawn. While he has sprinted as recently as last winter, those races all came around two turns at Delta Downs. I wonder if he’s going to be as effective in this one-turn affair with other speed signed on. Furthermore, he’s taking a significant drop in class down to the bottom level after getting claimed for $32,000 just over two months ago. Big Muddy is slightly more appealing since at least you know he’s in good form. The turnback to 7 furlongs is also a question mark for him, as is the wet track. Yet Rob Atras’s horses have been running well and he must be respected. My top pick is Kahramani. While his sprint form is not as convincing as that of Soul P Say at first glance, I think this horse may actually appreciate getting back to 7 furlongs in this spot. He’s a closer, but he’s not one that needs to drop far off the pace in the early going. His last effort is not nearly as bad as it seems, since that was a much tougher field and a race that was dominated up front. I believe Joe Sharp has spotted this runner well and I think he’ll show up with a solid effort.
RACE 6: HEAVY ROLLER (#2)
The entry may go off as the favored entity in this spot, with Felix in Fabula seemingly offering greater appeal. However, I have serious doubts about this Bruce Levine trainee’s ability to get this 1 1/8 miles distance. He’s really getting around one turn, and I think he’s even best going sprint distances. Furthermore, he was in better form over the winter and his last couple of performances suggest that he may be tailing off. His stablemate Curlin Road is more convincing going this far, but he’s hard to recommend off his current form. Perhaps Rudy Rodriguez can wake him up off the claim, since this move up to the $50,000 level is a sign of confidence. Yet I wouldn’t want to bet on that prospect at a short price. I believe Heavy Roller is simply the right horse for this spot. He’s not going to be any kind of huge price, but he’s just the most likely winner. He’s run a ton of speed figures that put him on par with Felix in Fabula and he actually relishes a two-turn 9-furlong trip. I won’t hold his Pimlico Special against him, since he was simply overmatched, and then last time he never had a chance to close in a race that was dominated up front by the talented Snapper Sinclair. I believe this runner would offer value at odds of 7-5 or better. I’ll use him with Holiday Bonus, who should not be ignored in this spot. I know it’s been a while since he’s run a competitive race, but he’s been spotted way over his head in almost all of his recent starts. This drop back in to a straight claiming race could wake him up. He ran well over wet tracks this past winter and can handle the distance.
RACE 7: LEM ME HAVE IT (#5)
After scratches, Filly Dilly and Saloon Girl are likely to dominate the wagering. Filly Dilly has been meant for turf in both career starts, and this is the second time she’s gotten rained off. She handled the dirt quite well in her debut, drawing off impressively in the stretch. Yet she was facing a fairly weak off-the-turf field that day and I’m not sure that she is a cinch to repeat that effort against tougher company. If not for the layoff, Saloon Girl would be quite formidable in this spot. She ran well against males in her debut in a race that was quite strong for the class level. She then easily handled maiden special weight foes next time out, dominating on the front end with a strong 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Yet Wesley Ward does not have the strongest statistics off layoffs of this type on the dirt, and she will have to contend with the early speed of a number of other rivals. I’m hoping that the early pace is contested, because I believe Lem Me Have It is an intriguing closer in this field. She looks a bit slower than her main competition, but she arguably ran the best race of her life in her debut sprinting. For whatever reason, they stretched her out after that and her late kick seemed to be somewhat muted over longer distances. I like that Bruce Levine is starting her back in a sprint and she has a right to run faster now as a mature 3-year-old. If they go quickly up front, look for her to pick them all up late.
RACE 9: QURBAAN (#8)
The main attraction in this Forbidden Apple is the king of Saratoga, Voodoo Song, who will attempt to win his sixth race at the Spa in his third summer up here. He only won once during the 2018 Saratoga season, but he made that triumph count, taking down the Grade 1 Fourstardave. If he returns in that kind of form, it is highly unlikely anyone in this field will beat him. However, Voodoo Song has been known to need a race off lengthy layoffs, as he did last year. If he’s not up to the task, this race would be open to many contenders. Chad Brown entered a pair, of which I prefer Made You Look. A mile is the perfect distance for this horse, and he would be quite dangerous if able to get back to his form from last spring and summer. He didn’t relish the “good” going in the Fourstardave last summer, and he hasn’t been seen since. Brown is great off long layoffs like this, and he figures to work out a good trip. My top pick is Qurbaan. I know this 6-yearold is starting to develop a reputation for having trouble finding the winner’s circle. However, he’s nevertheless run very well in all of his recent losses, and he’s had excuses on a few occasions. He made the first move into a contested pace in the Maker’s 46 Mile this year before that race fell apart late. He was then very game to be second to division leader Bricks and Mortar in the Turf Classic. I can throw out his Manhattan because that trip was a disaster. I like him turning all the way back to this one-mile distance, and Joel Rosario should be a good fit for a horse whose run needs to be timed perfectly.