PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 2:   7 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 3:   2 - 8 - 7
Race 4:   1 - 5 - 4
Race 5:   5 - 9 - 4 - 10
Race 6:   8 - 11
Race 7:   10 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 8:   9 - 5 - 7 - 4
Race 9:   6 - 9 - 7 - 3
Race 10:   7 - 8 - 15 - 16

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

Dreamlike (#3) will probably win this race at a very short price. He’s obviously a standout on paper, having earned TimeformUS Speed Figures of 111 or higher in all three prior starts. No one else in this field has even gotten within 7 points of his lowest fig in their recent starts, so he looks pretty formidable. I’m just a little concerned about the tendency to hang that he’s displayed in his races, especially the last couple of times. He was supposed to get the job done two back at Guflstream when losing as the 1-5 favorite, as he just seemed content to settle for second after traveling well. Perhaps it’s unfair to say he waited on competition in the Wood, given the strength of that field. Yet he looked like he was in position to win at the quarter pole and just seemed a little reluctant to go on with it. He didn’t work for two months after that race, so it must have taken something out of him. At what figures to be a very short price, I want to find an alternative. I’m not interested in the likely second choice Ocasek (#4), who doesn’t look like he wants any part of this distance. I’d rather take Chad Brown’s other horse Moore’s Law (#5), who seems like one that is still figuring things out and may be set for a step forward in his third start. Yet I’m interested in a bigger price for my top pick. Exude (#7) obviously hasn’t run nearly as fast as the favorite, but I do like the progression that he’s displayed through his three starts. He was outrun in the early stages of that Gulfstream maiden race in April, but was staying on nicely at the end, only hitting his best stride in the last furlong. He then caught a sloppy track that was favoring speed last time at Belmont, but was still trying at the end, just missing third at the wire. He’s bred to love the added ground he gets to work with this time, and Bill Mott has good stats in these longer maiden races on the dirt.

Fair Value:
#7 EXUDE, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 4

Chad Brown obviously holds a strong hand here, sending out the two morning line favorites. However, I’m not thrilled with either one of his fillies at short prices. Both exit disappointing efforts in the Acorn, which did turn out to be a race of quality, with Kentucky Oaks winner Pretty Mischievous earning another Grade 1 victory. Randomized (#5) was coming off a bit of a layoff that day, so perhaps she needed a start. Yet I didn’t like the way she was unable to keep pace early before retreating. She did earn an eye-catching speed figure when she broke her maiden, but I’m still somewhat skeptical of that race and need to see more evidence that she’s actually quite that good. Accede (#4) was perhaps a bigger disappointment in the Acorn, since she got a good stalking trip, cut the corner, and still backed up. I have doubts that she really wants route distances, and I’m also somewhat skeptical of her top speed figure, earned in the Eight Belles. That’s proven to be a negative key race. Looking beyond the favorites, Sacred Wish had made some sense as an alternative before she scratched, and I definitely don’t want to dismiss the filly who finished right behind her in the race she exits. Just Katherine (#1) wasn’t as suited by the race flow of that June 16 affair as she was trying to close in a race dominated by the front-running winner. Yet I really liked the way she traveled to the quarter pole and kept trying through the wire. She was an overachiever at Gulfstream this winter, and seems to have continued her progression in New York. This barn has shipped a small stable up north but has had success both here and at Monmouth despite sending out big prices. She’s going to be the longshot here and I think she’s far from impossible in a race that might be much more competitive than it appears at first glance.

Fair Value:
#1 JUST KATHERINE, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 10

Most of the races that were taken off the turf on this card will be destroyed by scratches, but this feels like one that could actually hold together as a decent betting race. The first inclination is to look to the MTO entrants, but neither one of them does much for me. I suppose you have to be afraid of Magnolia Midnight (#15), since he’s first off the claim for Linda Rice. However, I’m not thrilled with him stretching out to a mile since he hasn’t really been finishing off his sprints that well. He’s not getting much class relief here and I think he’s catching a deceptively tough spot. I also have little interest in Valenzan Day (#16), who was able to get this distance for Rice last time, but is now stepping up into a much tougher spot for a different barn. My turf pick Our Country (#8) also has some dirt form, though his most recent start on this surface was a disaster. He was coming off a layoff for a new barn that day, and didn’t seem to appreciate the particularly intense kickback at Aqueduct. He’s better than that, but I do wonder if he’s more of a turf runner these days. My top pick on dirt is Invisible War (#7). It looks like he’s gone off form, but he had little chance in that most recent start at Ellis Park. That surface has been extremely speed-favoring, and this gelding broke towards the back and stayed there in a merry-go-round race. He had previously run some competitive races on this surface, and seems to be best going distances around a mile. Sometimes a change of scenery can wake up a runner like this, and Joe Sharp is 19 for 73 (26%, $2.10 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes over the past 5 years.

Fair Value:
#7 INVISIBLE WAR, at 3-1 or greater