PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 2:   3 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 3:   3 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 4:   6 - 4 - 2 - 8
Race 5:   3 - 7 - 10 - 4
Race 6:   2 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 7:   4 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 8:   11 - 6 - 8 - 7
Race 9:   10 - 8 - 1 - 3
Race 10:   2 - 3 - 9 - 8

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 3: WHISTLER’S HONOR (#3)

Five horses exit a May 30 race from Belmont at this level. #4 Biondi achieved the best result that day and figures to play out as the controlling speed here. However, he has found his way to solo leads twice in a row now, and he’s gotten run down each time. Bond removes the blinkers, likely in an attempt to get him to finish more willingly. I believe he’s the horse to beat, but it’s not like his form makes him a standout and he figures to be a short price. #6 Uragano arguably ran better than Biondi in finishing just a nose behind him. He broke outwardly from a wide post and had to be used early to run up into a stalking position. He did hang a bit in the late stages, but clearly improved on the turf and still has upside in his second attempt on this surface. Yet the horse that interests me most from that affair is #3 Whistler’s Honor. His results may not inspire much confidence at a glance, but both of his replays are worth watching. He was off slowly in his debut before putting in a strong stretch rally, hitting his best stride too late before galloping out past the entire field. He returned from a layoff in that common May 30 event, but was never given a chance to run. Jose Ortiz got him buried in traffic, legitimately blocked for the entire stretch drive. He’s clearly better than that, and should be more effective here if Ortiz can manage to work out a clean trip this time.

WIN: #3 Whistler's Honor, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 1,4,6

RACE 5: ASSIDUOUSLY (#3)

It’s difficult to know where to begin in this incredibly confusing conditioned claimer. A few of these exit a tougher starter allowance on June 5 at Belmont won by the talented Hilliard. #10 Al’s Prince could take money after splitting the field that day, finishing ahead of some rivals he meets again here. I thought he put in a good effort in his turf debut two back and still has some upside. He just could go favored in a wide open race, and I don’t want to accept too short a price on anyone in here. #7 Bail Out finished just a nose behind Al’s Prince in the latter’s maiden-breaking score, and came right back to break his own maiden in his 27th attempt to do so. This popular gelding didn’t fare so well in his first start against winners, but I thought he had a tougher trip than Al’s Prince in that June 5 affair. He was wide and got pushed in behind rivals in upper stretch. He’s better than that and can rebound switching back to Manny Franco. Looking at horses coming from different directions, #4 Bali’s Shade is a little intriguing as a candidate to wire the field. He’s only sprinted on turf so far while facing tougher competition than he meets here, but he’s bred to go this far. I won’t be surprised when he takes them a long way up front at a price. I ultimately landed on another horse who figures to be among the biggest prices in the field. #3 Assiduously doesn’t look particularly appealing based on his recent set of results, as he’s failed to hit the board since getting claimed away from Chad Brown here last summer. However, I think his last few trips are worthy of closer examination. He got a poor ride three back at Gulfstream when making a crazy premature move down the backstretch before fading. Then two back at Churchill he actually ran a race that makes him competitive here, rushing up to stalk an honest pace that fell apart while staying in contention until upper stretch. His last race at Horseshoe Indy was poor, but he again got a very wide trip. This is a big rider upgrade to Julien Leparoux on a horse who may be better than he looks.

WIN: #3 Assiduously, at 12-1 or greater
USE: 4,7,10

RACE 6: BAR FOURTEEN (#2)

This New York-bred optional claiming affair is one of many wide open races on this Friday card. #5 Straw Into Goldfigure to attract support as he returns from a two-month freshening, going out for the dangerous combo of Joel Rosario and Christophe Clement. His form so far in 2022 has been solid, as he’s just been beaten by better rivals in his two outings. Yet those performances make him a solid fit here, and he has the tactical speed to work out a fine trip. Most of his rivals exit a June 19 race at this level won by Chulainn. #7 Ruse is the one who finished closest to the winner day, just getting nailed at the wire in a narrow loss. This Tim Hills trainee did well to nearly hang on after making the first move into the pace, probably not helped by drifting inside late. Yet he’s nevertheless been in great form this year and obviously ran well at the Spa last season. I didn’t see a major excuse for #9 Grape Nuts Warrior, who could take money here going out for Chad Brown. You wanted to race off the inside path on June 19 on the inner turf during a period favoring outside movers on that course. The horse that may have been most compromised by his trip that day is #2 Bar Fourteen. Not only is 9 furlongs a stretch for this guy, but he inherited the early lead heading onto the backstretch and was guided down to the inside, where he stayed for the remaining 6 furlongs of the race. He actually battled on gamely to finish fifth, all things considered. I also think his prior form is stronger than it appears, especially that victory three back, from which multiple horses have come back to run well. Now he figures to play out as the controlling speed from the inside in a race that doesn’t feature many confirmed front-runners.

WIN: #2 Bar Fourteen, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 3,5,7

RACE 7: AMERICAN PURE (#4)

Dropdowns figure to rule this unusually strong $25k conditioned claimer. Former $1 million yearling purchase #5 Will E Sutton could go favored as he seeks to get back on track following a couple of poor efforts. He ran well to win his N1X allowance condition three back at Laurel, and subsequently had no chance against a stakes field going a marathon distance in the Flat Out. His lack of effort last time at Delaware is of some concern, but winner Ridin With Biden is a pretty nice stakes-quality horse. This might just be the class relief he needs. Jonathan Thomas is 5-for-22 (23%, $2.09 ROI) with non-maidens first time for a tag over the past 5 years. Among his main rivals is #3 Six Percent, who posted a speed figure that would make him tough against this field in his return from a layoff two back. However, that race has proven to be weaker than originally thought, as multiple horses have come back to regress out of that spot. I prefer others. #4 American Pure seems like a candidate to rebound as he drops in for a tag for trainer Brad Cox. His last result looks pretty ugly, but he was in over his head and got a wild trip. He was squeezed back at the start and made a premature backstretch move into contention before flattening out. He had run well enough in his prior victory at Horseshoe Indy and will be tough here if able to recapture that form. I’d also use #2 Jade’s Dream. This might be a tougher spot than the NY-bred allowance race he won in his most recent dirt start at Aqueduct, but he’s had excuses in his two subsequent turf outings.

WIN: #4 American Pure, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 2,5

RACE 8: EMPRESS TIGRESS (#11)

The scratch of morning line favorite Twilight Gleaming dampens my enthusiasm for this Coronation Cup, but I do still have a strong opinion. I expect #6 Derrynaneto bounce back with a better effort. She’s disappointed at short prices twice in a row, but 7 furlongs was too far for her in the Soaring Softly, and last time she didn’t get the savviest ride at Laurel. I think she’s the one you want from that race as she gets Joel Rosario back aboard. Yet the two runners who interest me most bookend the field, both of which are trying turf for the first time. My top pick is #11 Empress Tigress. This filly has been well meant from early on, when she worked an impressive quarter mile at the two-year-old sale. She finally made her debut in May at Woodbine and did not disappoint, drawing off to an impressive score. She earned a solid 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort, and the number might be on the low side. Three horses have run back from that race, and they’ve improved by 28, 15, and 20 points. She’s bred to handle turf since her dam is a half-sister to turf stakes winners Stays in Vegas and Miss Technicality. Jonathan Thomas is 6 for 21 (29%, $2.90 ROI) going from synthetic to turf over the past 5 years. I also like the outside draw given her tactical speed.

WIN: #11 Empress Tigress, at 2-1 or greater
USE: 6

RACE 9: CITY MAN (#10)

I don’t have a strong argument against either favorite in this Forbidden Apple, but I do think that this is a competitive affair where it would be wise to search for value. #1 Set Piece is arguably the horse to beat off his victory in the Dinner Party two back. However, he’s not the most reliable sort and he’s totally reliant on pace developing up front so that he can work out a trip from the back of the pack. His good effort will beat this field, but I wouldn’t want to take too short a price. I would say the same about #3 Mira Mission, who was in career-best form when last seen in Kentucky this spring. He was one of the few who seemed to relish that quirky Churchill turf course in the Turf Classic, but he had also run well in his two prior starts. He makes plenty of sense, but is returning from a brief layoff. Looking for alternatives, some may consider #7 Public Sector, who needs to take a step forward to beat this field. He ran better than it appears last time, but I’m not sure that #12 Sanctuary City isn’t the horse you want from that race at a better price. I pegged two horses that could offer decent value. One of those is #8 Atone, who was beaten on the square by Set Piece last time. Yet Atone was forced to race as a front-runner that day, which isn’t really his style. His prior form had been solid, as he actually finished ahead of both Set Piece and Mira Mission at Keeneland two back. My top pick is #10 City Man. It might appear to some that this NY-bred has gone off form in recent starts, but there are legitimate excuses for his two recent defeats. That turf course in the Fort Marcy was as boggy as you’ll see anywhere in this country, and he simply didn’t handle it. Then last time he got a strange trip, taking the lead before getting reined in to stalk. He wound up in a pocket with nowhere to go in the stretch and got steadied repeatedly to the wire. Prior to that in the Danger’s Hour, City Man showed that he’s capable of producing an effort that makes him a contender here and he figures to get sent off at a square price.

WIN: #10 City Man, at 9-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #8 Atone, at 7-1 or greater
USE: 1,3,8,12