PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 2:   4 - 1 - 8 - 3
Race 3:   4 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 4:   5 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 5:   5 - 10 - 7 - 4
Race 6:   8 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 7:   4 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 8:   3 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 9:   5 - 10 - 2 - 9
Race 10:   14 - 5 - 11 - 15

PLAYS

RACE 2: KABOB (#4)
The horse to beat in this maiden claimer is obviously Dawn’s Early Light, who is trying this level for the second time after finishing third for the $25,000 tag back in March. He got in a prep on the turf last time and now switches back to his preferred surface. His dirt speed figures are just superior to those earned by all of his rivals in this race. The one concern I have is that he’s going to be a very short price and the Danny Gargan barn has been a little cold lately. Over the past 90 days, he is just 6 for 39 (15%, $0.75 ROI) with all starters. I’m not way against him, but I do think some others could offer decent value. Of those I’m most interested in Kabob. He goes out for Ray Handal, who just hasn’t had any success with first time starters, so he certainly had a right to need his debut. He also ran deceptively well in that race, as he was off towards the back of the pack and commenced a mild middle move on the far turn before flattening out late. I thought he showed a hint of ability in that spot and I’m willing to give him a chance here in his second start. Others worth considering include Always Funny, who faced better maiden special weight rivals in his only start to date, and Apex Predator, a longtime maiden who has actually earned some speed figures that put him in the mix.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,8

RACE 4: STUNNING MUNNINGS (#5)
Leaveuwithasmile is clearly the horse to beat as she drops down in class after facing tougher rivals in most of her prior starts against winners. A repeat of that 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned last December would surely put her in the winner’s circle here. She actually put in a decent effort off the layoff last time. She was never going to be any match for graded stakes-bound filly Hello Beautiful, but she nevertheless earned another solid speed figure. She’s probably just dropping to get a win, but I am a little concerned that her prior starts on the NYRA circuit haven’t quite measured up to her Laurel performances. Furthermore, she’s a closer in a race that doesn’t feature an abundance of early speed. The Pace Projector is predicting that Stunning Munnings should be vying for the front end, and I think she’s a real threat to upset the favorite. She got pretty tired in some races going longer over the winter, but she ran well prior to the layoff in February, and then returned with a good performance last time. The runner-up in that June 21 race, Our Lady of Loreto, ran off in the early stages and Stunning Munnings was in the difficult position of having to chase her down while trying to hold off the closers. All things considered, I thought she was game to battle on for third in a taxing effort. If she can take a step forward and actually has a pace advantage here, I think she could be tough to run down.

Win: 5
Exacta Box: 2,5

RACE 7: CLARA PEETERS (#4)
Chad Brown has entered a quartet of uncoupled runners in this wide open De La Rose, including the morning-line favorite Blowout. However, it was announced on Friday that she is going to scratch due to a temperature, so he's left with three to run. Catch a Bid and Noor Sahara both figure to attract support. The former got to control the pace in a weaker optional claiming event at Churchill. Noor Sahara disappointed in her U.S. debut, but the 9-furlong distance may have gotten to her. Both have a right to improve and should appreciate the one-mile distance. Among Brown’s entrants, I’m actually most interested in the filly that could be the biggest price, Viadera. This British-bred made her U.S. debut in the Intercontinental last time, where she trailed three of her Chad Brown barnmates across the wire. While she was beaten a long way, she broke inward at the start and was off slowly, which proved to be pretty detrimental in a race where few horses made up any ground. All things considered she closed nicely and was moving best of all in the last eighth. Now she stretches out, which should be to her benefit since she was 2 for 2 going this distance in Europe. She’ll feature prominently in my wagers, but my top pick is Clara Peeters. This Brad Cox trainee hasn’t done much wrong in two U.S. races. She overcame a tardy start and wide trip to finish a strong second at Fair Grounds, and then improved upon that effort when beating a solid field at Belmont last time. Javier Castellano did a fantastic job working her into the clear from a difficult position in upper stretch, and she kicked in late with a flourish. One mile is probably her best trip based on her European form, and I think she could fly under the radar here in the face of the Brown runners.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,6
Trifecta: 4 with 1,6 with 1,2,3,6,8